Carolingian Dynasty survives

OTOH wanting and achieving are two different things. They probably aspire to retake West Francia or maybe even East Francia, but Lotharingia might be the only realm left to them.
Especially when West Francian principalities reject Lotharingians, and Lotharingians may increasingly become their powerbase.
 
OTOH wanting and achieving are two different things. They probably aspire to retake West Francia or maybe even East Francia, but Lotharingia might be the only realm left to them.
Allow me to disagree, they're distinct but related.

Carolingian kingship, by definition imperial : failing to restore even partially the imperial control of different crowns is the reciepe for loosing the throne eventually to a "national" dynasty :

- Because local nobles would be quickly tired of wasting their ressource for no successful takeover
- Because carolingian kingship strives for greater control over the kingdom (when the "national" dynasties have a more important "principality"-approach, at least including great feudal demesnes when not dominated by these.

If Lotharingia stands as the only Carolingian realm, and giving the power of the lotharingian nobility, it would mean at very short term, the end of the said Carolingian dynasty, at the benefit of either a local dynasty (that, again, considering the central position of Lotharingia would have an hard time asserting his independence, and would probably end as the southern Burgundian counterpart), or tied up with whoever would have an "imperial" program.
 
I don't think we'll reach a total agreement here. Since if the Carolingians will want to keep their realm, they need to evolve.
Nor is it impossible for them to become a 'national' dynasty, they may be forced to give up claims on West Francia, but that may drive them in the arms of East Francia.
Their fate probably won't be much different from, what happened or might have happened with Burgundy.
Either the emperor gets them (but that could end the Carolingians or they make younger sons dukes) or they end up in an imperial orbit.
For Lotharingia, that potentially could be France, but given conflicting claims, that seems less likely to me.
 
Since if the Carolingians will want to keep their realm, they need to evolve.

I'm not sure I understand the "evolution" there : Carolingian conception did evolved, but it doesn't mean this evolution was successful while it was coherent with the conception of power.

Carolingian kingship is associated to an imperial project, it's at the base of their political culture.
Political culture can change, of course, but generally along coherent lines.

It's as wondering : "Hey, wait : why didn't Stuarts stop with this Catholicism and Absolutism non-sense, they could have stay in power!".

Remove the imperial-based kingship of Carolingians is basically removing what made their legitimacy to hold kingship in first place (it's why the aformentioned Herbertiens or Chiny never get the crown)

It is impossible for them to suddenly "Congratulations! Your CAROLINGIAN evolved into NATIONAL CAROLINGIAN" without denying themselves up to the core of their political conceptions.
 
The one doesn't exclude the other; the imperial pretensions might become like the English claim on the French throne.

Though following your reasoning, it might be might be safer for them to survive as duke of Lower Lorraine (Lotharingia) for a while. They may or may not gain a throne later on, but that would give them time to re-invent themselves. By which I mean that they retain pride in their Carolingian lineage and heritage, but also can distance themselves from earlier Carolingian imperial kingship.
 
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The one doesn't exclude the other; the imperial pretensions might become like the English claim on the French throne.
It's quite different : the english kingship legitimacy didn't depended from holding France. And even if you had a crisis at the end of HYW in England, it wasn't directly to the incapacity of Lancasters to hold the french kingship.

Carolingian kingship legitimacy, on the other hand, did depended from the king's capacity to maintain the imperial pretention effectivly.
It doesn't mean that it would result automatically into the fall of the king, but it would critically weaken its legitimacy and authority at the profit of principalities rulers, including in the succession.

Though following your reasoning, it might be might be safer for them to survive as duke of Lower Lorraine (Lotharingia) for a while.
Well, you do have Charles of Lower Lorraine that did have pretentions on Western Francia. But being vassal of the emperor greatly weakened his position (the campaign of Lothar against Otto provoked some sort of national awakening).

You have as to take in account the Ottonian policy : hosting Carolingian rulers is a thing, allowing them to get on a throne and to resume a policy of expansion on their land is another (while Robertians didn't really pushed eastwards for centuries). Even if there's a possibility, the emperors may just shut it.

But assuming that Charles and his successors go the same way than Herbertiens (meaning that they would likely not be considered as "true" Carolingians but as "of Lorraine" dynasty), that proud themselves IOTL of their Carolingian ascendency, I don't see them being likely royal material, probably less than other dynasties actually : in fear of the return of their previous policies, and preference for more "national" lines (even if they adopt a different self-conception : it doesn't grant anything for how other consider them)

That said, I agree : it could still technically happen.
 
They may end up as the Capetian house of Courtenay, but Charles of Lower Lorraine, unlike the Herbertiens, was a legitimate descendant of Charlemagne.

As for their status, if they manage to keep the duchy of Lower Lorraine, then they will be able to marry into important comital houses, ducal houses and occasionally a member of a royal house. After all Lower Lorraine was a 'new' 'stem' duchy on par with Saxony, Franconia, Bavaria and Swabia.

As for their future fortunes, as long as they remain a part of the elite, there still are possibilities.
The house of Ivrea, after briefly having ruled in Italy, eventually managed to gain the throne of León and Castille (the house of Trastamara was a bastard branch).
I'm not saying it will be very likely, but they will remain amongst the dynasties with a chance to achieve this.
 
but Charles of Lower Lorraine, unlike the Herbertiens, was a legitimate descendant of Charlemagne
His role in the wars against his brother, and more important the kingdom; plus his submission to a foreign ruler already weakened his position IOTL.

ITTL, I don't see what would have whitewashing him for what concern the Western Francian nobility.
 
His role in the wars against his brother, and more important the kingdom; plus his submission to a foreign ruler already weakened his position IOTL.

ITTL, I don't see what would have whitewashing him for what concern the Western Francian nobility.

Sure he and thus his line would have lost West Francia and Lotharingia isn't a possibility either, however he might have been able to ensure the Carolingian dynasty survive, in fact IOTL he at least 3 legitimate sons (Otto, Louis and Charles).
This in turn, I agree, will make them increasingly more 'of Lorraine', but as a dukes ruling a stem duchy, they will remain a part of the Western European elite (perhaps one tier below the top).

OTOH his nephew Louis V didn't need to have died, Having more branches would have helped the survival of the dynasty.
 
however he might have been able to ensure the Carolingian dynasty survive

Carolingian inheritance, maybe. Dynasty, it's less sure (at least understood as a political continuity and identity).

After all, de Chiny family most probably came all the way from Herbertiens to Charlemagne, and still...(I agree that they weren't really important nobles to begin with)

It's not as you couldn't have some Carolingians taking over :
- Charles III staying in power
- Charles of Lorraine being

The main issue being to make them hold their ground face to Robertians (and their allies, such as Normands) on the West and Ottonids in the East (meaning at least holding Lotharingia).
Don't get me wrong : it's gonna be hard. But it would have far more chances to have a surviving ruling Carolingian dynasty (but probably not up to the XVIIIth century)
 
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