Carol I of Romania has a son

Best way to super-charge Romanian progress is to delay entry into WW1 until summer 1918 (whilst charging increasingly exorbitant rates for any and all exports to the CPs, and demand that they be payed in hard currency or machine tools), avoid the OTL land reform and get a pro-foreign investment government in power between the end of the Great War and the start of the Great Depression.

Not doing the land reform might turn the Romanians Bolsheviks. Despite the fears of the ruling class and of the Occident, the Romanian soldiers (massively formed from peasantry) remained loyal and outside Bolshevik agitations. Why? The promised land reforms..

Without this promises make on the front of WWI in 1917 by King Ferdinand itself, that could lead to Mackenzen in Iasi by mid August....

No, the land reform was dimly needed and essential. The peasants had a nearly slavery status...
 
Nobody had the hindsight to know what happened in OTL at the end of WWI... Dissolution of both Russian and Austrian-Hungarian empires. Staying out of the war was not a solution for Bucarest. In otl, there was the fear that Antante might even not even need anymore the Romanian entrance if Brusilov offensive was successful and broke A-H.

When Romania entered in the war, Verdun was ended (in French Victory), Somme was on the way and Brusilov was seen unstoppable. Also, USA was more and more favorable to entrance on Antante side. Even the Russian tone become harsher, considering that they do not need Romania to join (they will rather split it with the Austrians than to give it Transylvania). Bucharest panicked that the war will end before Romanian entrance and pressured Bratianu to make a decision. However Bratianu keep the calm and negotiate a written accord between all the Antante powers to guarantee Romanian pretensions and integrity (which France, Britain and Russia signed but had no intention to keep it). This is why Romania entered when there was a general lull in the fight and the Germans focused on it. Romanians lost in 1916, more than 200.000 soldiers (a third of the army) and half of the territory, including the capital, the cereal fields, the oil exploitation, etc., while the CP lost 105.000 soldiers (60.000 being Germans). To make thing worse, a typhus epidemic and severe starvation took the life of more than 300.000 civilians... All this, from a general population of some 6 million...
 
Not doing the land reform might turn the Romanians Bolsheviks. Despite the fears of the ruling class and of the Occident, the Romanian soldiers (massively formed from peasantry) remained loyal and outside Bolshevik agitations. Why? The promised land reforms..

Without this promises make on the front of WWI in 1917 by King Ferdinand itself, that could lead to Mackenzen in Iasi by mid August....

No, the land reform was dimly needed and essential. The peasants had a nearly slavery status...
Land Reform in the OTL context, with the front about to collapse, was necessary, true.

Not so true in the rough sketch of an outline of draft of a mini TL I wrote in that post.
 
Not doing the land reform might turn the Romanians Bolsheviks. Despite the fears of the ruling class and of the Occident, the Romanian soldiers (massively formed from peasantry) remained loyal and outside Bolshevik agitations. Why? The promised land reforms..

Without this promises make on the front of WWI in 1917 by King Ferdinand itself, that could lead to Mackenzen in Iasi by mid August....

No, the land reform was dimly needed and essential. The peasants had a nearly slavery status...

AFAIK land reform and democratization was already promised, the project was started in 1914 but interrupted by the war? So "Carol II" couldn't avoid it without greatly destabilizing his rule, and he might not necessarily want to avoid it either.

That said...what if Romania entered WWI with a much better army and leadership, but at the same time - when the Brusilov offensive was losing steam? Could this result in a scenario where: -Romania does reasonably well in the war and most of its territorial claims are easily acknowledged;
-the Entente's situation improves and the Central Powers are knocked out sooner;
-but the changes are not radical or quick enough and Russia still undergoes the February Revolution in 1917, giving Romania at least some chance to take Bessarabia too?
 
Land Reform in the OTL context, with the front about to collapse, was necessary, true.

Not so true in the rough sketch of an outline of draft of a mini TL I wrote in that post.


The best thing to do and to solve the agrarian issue once and for all is.... industrialization. That was done by the communists regime. Doing it half century earlier... is... tough.

Before the WWI, Romania was a cvasi western colony (a captive market and raw material exporter) but one which modernized rapidly. The social fracture between the peasantry (which make 90% of population) and the rest was huge and similar to what happens in certain colonies. The elites were rich and lived on a crystal blob, not seeing the reality (or do not wanting to see it). That was why the 1907 revolt shocked everybody from the King to the aristocracy and the foreign powers (which were ready to intervene, especially Russia and Austria...)

One thing could do a significant difference: not sending the Romanian gold treasury to Russia in 1916... to be lost forever. It was a huge amount of money very useful for the post war rebuild.
 

Zagan

Donor
That was why the 1907 revolt shocked everybody from the King to the aristocracy and the foreign powers (which were ready to intervene, especially Russia and Austria...)
Russia was not "shocked" because it was Russian agents who instigated the revolt in the first place.
 
AFAIK land reform and democratization was already promised, the project was started in 1914 but interrupted by the war? So "Carol II" couldn't avoid it without greatly destabilizing his rule, and he might not necessarily want to avoid it either.

That said...what if Romania entered WWI with a much better army and leadership, but at the same time - when the Brusilov offensive was losing steam? Could this result in a scenario where: -Romania does reasonably well in the war and most of its territorial claims are easily acknowledged;
-the Entente's situation improves and the Central Powers are knocked out sooner;
-but the changes are not radical or quick enough and Russia still undergoes the February Revolution in 1917, giving Romania at least some chance to take Bessarabia too?


That's is a lot of engineering...

Theoretically, yes, I could be done. In the best conditions (for Romania), the Romanian army is stopped by the Germans on Hungarian plain and the Romanians are pushed back to Carpathians. Maybe even back to the starting line (which should have being far better fortified than OTL). But the winter of 1916-1917 arrive and the operations are stooped. The French mission arrive and re-supply the Romanian army, the lessons of modern war are learned.

Or even better, maybe Mackenzen is encircled in Dobruja by a bold maneuver which was tried in OTL to cross the Danube behind him and the German expeditionary army in the Balkans are... finished. So it is Bulgaria. Romanian army join with Sarail in Salonik and open a direct route to supply, not being forced to bring everything via Archangelesk and Vladivostock (yes, the Antante supplies arrived from Siberia)

The next year (1917), the Germans decide it's not worth forcing the Carpathians after several unsuccessful trials and focus on Russia instead. Russia collapse and... Bassarabia vote for unification. Being alone, a truce (but not a peace) is signed with he Germans, or the French and British sent massive reinforcements to take the place of the retreating Russians.

When the war end, Romania is still in war with his territory intact, with no huge civilian loses, with its treasury and oil industry intact. With huge prestige and push the frontier up to Tissa (as wished) and maybe more from Banat.

Then comes Hitler and screw everything.....
 
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Russia was not "shocked" because it was Russian agents who instigated the revolt in the first place.

Well... not just the Russians, but also the Austrians agents too...

That do not means the condition of the peasantry were not desperate.

Shocked were France, UK, Germany, which considered Romania as a stability factor in the Balkans, only to find that was plague with severe issues. Its seems to had a golden head but clay legs.
 
Well... not just the Russians, but also the Austrians agents too...

That do not means the condition of the peasantry were not desperate.
Russia was not "shocked" because it was Russian agents who instigated the revolt in the first place.

That sounds weird. Not impossible, but very weird and difficult to explain.

Why would Russia (a staunchly conservative, aristocratic power) be instigating a peasant revolt? For that matter, why would Austria (also a staunchly conservative, aristocratic power) be instigating a peasant revolt? Not just any kind, either, but a revolt which could spill over onto Austria's and maybe even Russia's territory? That sort of thing was their collective #1 nightmare. Was there any conclusive proof of foreign governments' involvement?

There's also the question of why Austria and Russia (two powers which hated and mistrusted each other) would be working on the same goal...but similar things did happen before, so it's not inconceivable.
 
That sounds weird. Not impossible, but very weird and difficult to explain.

Why would Russia (a staunchly conservative, aristocratic power) be instigating a peasant revolt? For that matter, why would Austria (also a staunchly conservative, aristocratic power) be instigating a peasant revolt? Not just any kind, either, but a revolt which could spill over onto Austria's and maybe even Russia's territory? That sort of thing was their collective #1 nightmare. Was there any conclusive proof of foreign governments' involvement?

There's also the question of why Austria and Russia (two powers which hated and mistrusted each other) would be working on the same goal...but similar things did happen before, so it's not inconceivable.


Well, to split Romania back in two.

There are some... claims that facing the proofs of Austrian involvement (Austria baing an ally) King Carol ordered to all data about the revolt to be burn (wich was indeed happed) as it would undermine his German alliance.
 

Zagan

Donor
A brief summary of what you think, would be great, if you have the time?
I'll do it later today.
Okay... What do we have here?
Premise: Obscure POD in a little unimportant country.
Results: Unknown, asked for.

Choices:
1. Hard AH. Investigate all possible effects, all over the World. The Butterfly Effect rules supreme. We may not have a WW1 or it may happen earlier or later with vastly different technology and results, to say nothing about the possible alliances. By the time of the OTL destruction of Romania, the World may be unrecognizable. Innumerable variants here, including authorial fiat.

2. Soft AH. Except what is clearly changed by the POD and its direct consequences (mostly inside Romania, at least in the first years), the history of the World remains mostly the same. We have one or more Balkan Wars in the 1910's and at least one World War shortly afterwards with more or less the same participants. Romania may fare better or worse (due to my massive and obvious bias, it will fare better).

3. BKTL AH (Butterfly Killer TimeLine). Everything stays the same (except what we want to change) until some time when Romania is ready to do whatever we planned for it. Well... Whatever.

The following example could be characterized as Soft AH.


8 September 1870 (POD): Domnitor Carol I of Romania and his wife Doamna Elisabeta have twins: a son, Carol, and a daughter, Maria.

1874: A scarlet fever epidemic kills many children in Bucharest. Prince Carol and Princess Maria do not catch the disease (in OTL, Maria died). The relation between Domnitor Carol and Doamna Elisabeta remains good, the Domnitor keeps working in full capacity for the betterment of his country and the political situation remains stable, aided by the presence of a clear and undisputed successor of the throne.

1877-1878: The Russo-Turkish War (Romanian War of Independence) occurs on schedule. The Romanian Army crosses the Danube and helps the Russians defeat the Ottomans as in OTL. A somehow better performance of the Romanian Army (than in OTL) has two small but important consequences:
- The Vidin Area (liberated by the Romanians as in OTL and with a Romanian plurality as in OTL) is annexed to Romania;
- Southern Bessarabia is ceded to the Russian Empire (in exchange with Northern Dobruja, as in OTL), but the Romanians manage to talk the Russians into recognizing some measure of National Rights for the Bessarabian Romanians (while the Russians would not fully respect the treaty, it was better than nothing).
The Independence of Romania and the annexation of Northern Dobruja happen as per OTL.

1881: Independent Romania becomes a Kingdom (as in OTL). Domnitor Carol becomes King Carol I of the Romanians, Doamna Elisabeta is Queen Elisabeta and Prince Carol is the Crown Prince.

1880's, 1890's and 1900's: Romania's demographic, economic and military progress is (a little) greater than in OTL. Young Prince Carol follows a military career and the Romanian Army is taken good care of.

1910: The Balkan War. The Balkan League (Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro and Greece) defeats the Ottoman Empire and captures all of Ottoman Europe except Constantinople and its environs.

1911: The victorious powers manage to peacefully divide the spoils averting a Second Balkan War among themselves. Serbia unites with Montenegro and gets the Sanjak, Kosovo, northern Albania and NW Macedonia. Greece gets all the Epirus, southern Macedonia with Salonika and the Chalcidic Peninsula. Bulgaria gets NE Macedonia and all Thrace except a sliver of land near the Sea of Marmara and the Turkish Straits. Romania is compensated with Silistra and the coast up to Balcic (about one third of OTL Cadrilater / Southern Dobruja). Central Albania becomes an Austro-Hungarian Protectorate.
Voluntary population exchanges are encouraged by all Balkan League Powers. Numerous Aromanians are settled in Dobruja and Vidin.

1912: Start of World War One. Austria-Hungary could not tolerate any more Serbian and Romanian encroachment and provocation (Romania was not a Central Powers Ally). A cascade of alliances and declarations of war delimitates the two warring blocks: The Entente (UK, France, Belgium, Russia, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, Japan) vs. the Central Powers (Austria-Hungary, Germany, the Ottoman Empire, Italy).
1912-1918: [Most of the details of the war are not clear and are not supposed to be for such a short limited sketch.]
In the West, the war is mostly static as in OTL. In the East, A-H and Germany invade and occupy most of Serbia and Romania. The Romanian Monarch and Government retreats to Dobruja. Russia collapses and is destroyed. Germany occupies all territory up to the Don. The Entente kicks the Ottomans out of the War. Constantinople and most of Arabia are occupied.
The war ends with general exhaustion. A-H collapses and is dismantled. From Paris to Moscow, Europe is engulfed in various Communist or Nationalist Revolutions.

1913: King Carol I dies. Crown Prince Carol becomes King Carol II.

1919-1921: Paris Peace Treaties. [A map would be nice, but since this is not a proper TL, I don't know...]
Romania gets everything from the Tissa to the Bug, minority treaties notwithstanding.

1960: King Carol II dies 90 years old. His grandson succeeds him as King Carol IV.
What had happened in the meantime? I don't know. Throw in some (aborted) Communist rebellion, a short war or two with rump Hungary, maybe with the Ukraine as well, issues with the minorities, the obligatory 20th century antisemitism and even a Second World War if you feel like it (although the lack of a revanchist Germany should preclude that).

2017: Romania is a multiethnic country (about 60% Romanians), powerful, stable and prosperous. King Carol V had just acceeded to the Throne.


As I said, my two active TLs and numerous other ideas do not allow me to pursue this at this moment. I would like to read something like this though (hint, hint :)).
 
Okay... What do we have here?
Premise: Obscure POD in a little unimportant country.
Results: Unknown, asked for.

Choices:
1. Hard AH. Investigate all possible effects, all over the World. The Butterfly Effect rules supreme. We may not have a WW1 or it may happen earlier or later with vastly different technology and results, to say nothing about the possible alliances. By the time of the OTL destruction of Romania, the World may be unrecognizable. Innumerable variants here, including authorial fiat.

2. Soft AH. Except what is clearly changed by the POD and its direct consequences (mostly inside Romania, at least in the first years), the history of the World remains mostly the same. We have one or more Balkan Wars in the 1910's and at least one World War shortly afterwards with more or less the same participants. Romania may fare better or worse (due to my massive and obvious bias, it will fare better).

3. BKTL AH (Butterfly Killer TimeLine). Everything stays the same (except what we want to change) until some time when Romania is ready to do whatever we planned for it. Well... Whatever.

The following example could be characterized as Soft AH.


8 September 1870 (POD): Domnitor Carol I of Romania and his wife Doamna Elisabeta have twins: a son, Carol, and a daughter, Maria.

1874: A scarlet fever epidemic kills many children in Bucharest. Prince Carol and Princess Maria do not catch the disease (in OTL, Maria died). The relation between Domnitor Carol and Doamna Elisabeta remains good, the Domnitor keeps working in full capacity for the betterment of his country and the political situation remains stable, aided by the presence of a clear and undisputed successor of the throne.

1877-1878: The Russo-Turkish War (Romanian War of Independence) occurs on schedule. The Romanian Army crosses the Danube and helps the Russians defeat the Ottomans as in OTL. A somehow better performance of the Romanian Army (than in OTL) has two small but important consequences:
- The Vidin Area (liberated by the Romanians as in OTL and with a Romanian plurality as in OTL) is annexed to Romania;
- Southern Bessarabia is ceded to the Russian Empire (in exchange with Northern Dobruja, as in OTL), but the Romanians manage to talk the Russians into recognizing some measure of National Rights for the Bessarabian Romanians (while the Russians would not fully respect the treaty, it was better than nothing).
The Independence of Romania and the annexation of Northern Dobruja happen as per OTL.

1881: Independent Romania becomes a Kingdom (as in OTL). Domnitor Carol becomes King Carol I of the Romanians, Doamna Elisabeta is Queen Elisabeta and Prince Carol is the Crown Prince.

1880's, 1890's and 1900's: Romania's demographic, economic and military progress is (a little) greater than in OTL. Young Prince Carol follows a military career and the Romanian Army is taken good care of.

1910: The Balkan War. The Balkan League (Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro and Greece) defeats the Ottoman Empire and captures all of Ottoman Europe except Constantinople and its environs.

1911: The victorious powers manage to peacefully divide the spoils averting a Second Balkan War among themselves. Serbia unites with Montenegro and gets the Sanjak, Kosovo, northern Albania and NW Macedonia. Greece gets all the Epirus, southern Macedonia with Salonika and the Chalcidic Peninsula. Bulgaria gets NE Macedonia and all Thrace except a sliver of land near the Sea of Marmara and the Turkish Straits. Romania is compensated with Silistra and the coast up to Balcic (about one third of OTL Cadrilater / Southern Dobruja). Central Albania becomes an Austro-Hungarian Protectorate.
Voluntary population exchanges are encouraged by all Balkan League Powers. Numerous Aromanians are settled in Dobruja and Vidin.

1912: Start of World War One. Austria-Hungary could not tolerate any more Serbian and Romanian encroachment and provocation (Romania was not a Central Powers Ally). A cascade of alliances and declarations of war delimitates the two warring blocks: The Entente (UK, France, Belgium, Russia, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, Japan) vs. the Central Powers (Austria-Hungary, Germany, the Ottoman Empire, Italy).
1912-1918: [Most of the details of the war are not clear and are not supposed to be for such a short limited sketch.]
In the West, the war is mostly static as in OTL. In the East, A-H and Germany invade and occupy most of Serbia and Romania. The Romanian Monarch and Government retreats to Dobruja. Russia collapses and is destroyed. Germany occupies all territory up to the Don. The Entente kicks the Ottomans out of the War. Constantinople and most of Arabia are occupied.
The war ends with general exhaustion. A-H collapses and is dismantled. From Paris to Moscow, Europe is engulfed in various Communist or Nationalist Revolutions.

1913: King Carol I dies. Crown Prince Carol becomes King Carol II.

1919-1921: Paris Peace Treaties. [A map would be nice, but since this is not a proper TL, I don't know...]
Romania gets everything from the Tissa to the Bug, minority treaties notwithstanding.

1960: King Carol II dies 90 years old. His grandson succeeds him as King Carol IV.
What had happened in the meantime? I don't know. Throw in some (aborted) Communist rebellion, a short war or two with rump Hungary, maybe with the Ukraine as well, issues with the minorities, the obligatory 20th century antisemitism and even a Second World War if you feel like it (although the lack of a revanchist Germany should preclude that).

2017: Romania is a multiethnic country (about 60% Romanians), powerful, stable and prosperous. King Carol V had just acceeded to the Throne.


As I said, my two active TLs and numerous other ideas do not allow me to pursue this at this moment. I would like to read something like this though (hint, hint :)).

How did you jump from Carol II to Carol IV
 

Zagan

Donor
How did you jump from Carol II to Carol IV
As Carol II died at 90, his son Carol III predeceased him so his grandson Carol IV succeeded the throne. In deference to the already dead would be Carol III, the number III was skipped.
 

Zagan

Donor
A map would be nice
And here is a (very rough) map.

Europe after World War I

Europe3.png

.
 
- The Vidin Area (liberated by the Romanians as in OTL and with a Romanian plurality as in OTL) is annexed to Romania;
Incorrect. Or at least a much smaller area than what is usually considered to be the Vidin region (like for example the current Vidin Oblast). In any case I don't see the Russians allowing Romania to take over territory they never had possessed in the past from Bulgaria which they saw as their sphere of influence - Northern Dobruja was already considered enough compensation for Bessarabia and I don't see Romania being able to change it, no matter how successful the Romanian army. I'm not even aware of any Romanian interest in such territory in this period.

PS: I've seen your map and the territory taken by Romania is actually limited to a territory that had a Romanian plurality, so I take back my comment about the demography. Still seems a strange acquisition - a very small territory with a population of less than 50 thousand that will involve great expenses (a bridge would probably have to be built) and would be a source of future conflicts with both Bulgaria and Serbia.
 
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