Carnations Forever: A McKinley Survives TL

[ersatz-york]

Carnations Forever
If William McKinley Had Survived

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Hello, and welcome to my first-ever TL! I've been here for a little over two years now, so I figured that it was about time I contributed something to the board instead of loafing around and begging for likes.

I jest, of course.

Before we begin, I'd like to set forth some basic points about my TL:

1) You will see many familiar faces. I particularly dislike the idea that the butterfly effect must preclude the birth/existence of anyone who was born more than 9 months after the POD; the essentially fictional characters that must be created to replace historical ones seem wooden and unauthentic. What will change will be the roles that these people play and the circumstances of their birth and upbringing.

2) A lot of my knowledge has to do with American politics and American history. This will probably be reflected in the timeline. I will, however, do my best to cover developments elsewhere in the world.

3) If you have an update written out, or would like to flesh out developments in a certain part of the world, feel free to PM me your proposed update/suggestion.

4) I'll try and take this TL as far as possible, preferably to the modern day. Updates may come at an infrequent pace as real-life developments interrupt my writing or if I need to do some research.

5) Comments and feedback are highly appreciated!

With that aside, let's begin! I'll start with a pilot post to make the POD clear and gauge receptiveness, and then take a few days to produce the next update. I hope you enjoy this TL!

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PROLOGUE
Standing in Line

The doors to the Temple of Music had just been closed, but there nonetheless remained a considerably long line of visitors, who had come to meet and greet their president. Grasp, shake, release, repeat. The Major had always been a man for meticulous, methodical preparation, and so it made sense that he had a method for shaking hands, too. By being the first to reach out to grasp the hand of the other, he was able to control the pace of interaction; to firmly grasp the visitor's hand and then to guide them past him. The entire motion took just over a second.​

The Major quickly took stock of the next few visitors.

A few persons into the line was a little girl and her mother and her mother directly behind her. In front of her was a tall black man; in front of him another man, and in front of him--

The man in front of him approached the Major. He seemed nervous. He was tall, swarthy, and tense-looking.

The Major was not nervous, but the same couldn't be said of the Secret Service agents flanking him.

One hand extended to reach the other, but it was the hand of the restless visitor which seized first upon the Major's hand. The transaction of greetings took longer than McKinley had hoped for as the next in line approached. He would have to be more assertive next time.

As the swarthy man cleared the greeting area, the next man in line was right behind him, previously obscured by the height of the men who preceded him. This man, too, had a great deal of apprehension on his face.

The Major quickly reached to shake that man's hand, only to realize too late that the hand he had grasped was cloaked in a white handkerchief.

As the Major's grasp tightened around the visitor's hand, he realized what that "hand" was just early enough to avert tragedy.

The Major deftly twisted his wrist.

*CRACK*

*CRACK*

*CRACK*

As the Major stumbled backwards, the tall black man tackled McKinley's assailant, and a bevy of Secret Service agents, artillerymen, and Buffalo policemen followed.

"Go easy on him, boys!", the Major cried out. His right arm was in great pain, but his trademark scarlet carnation - which had always brought him good luck - was still in its place in his lapel.

 

[ersatz-york]

CHAPTER ONE
In The Aftermath
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While he sustained major injury to his right arm, the Major's life was never in serious question. Nonetheless, a panic ensued across the nation in the aftermath of the assassination attempt, a fear that anarchists were plotting to undermine the very foundations of the country. Indeed, many associates of Leon Czolgosz were arrested in the days that followed the assassination attempt, among them the influential anarchist thinker Emma Goldman, who had been thought to have heavily influenced Czolgosz's decision to make an attempt on the president's life. As Czolgosz was interrogated, it was found that neither Emma Goldman, her associates, nor any members of the "anarchist movement" had anything to do with Czolgosz's actions; Czolgosz was found to have acted on his own, and the detained anarchists were released. Czolgosz was easily found guilty of attempted murder and treason, among other charges, and sentenced to death.

The Major would be able to make a full recovery from the injuries sustained to his right arm, retaining full function in the long term. However, he would be out of the White House for about a month while he recovered from the worst of it. For that time, Vice President Theodore Roosevelt would fill in for McKinley as Acting President.

While McKinley recuperated, he had much time for thought. Had chance sent the bullets somewhere other than his arm, McKinley could have easily died. This time for recuperation gave McKinley new purpose.

On October 22, 1901, William McKinley resumed the office and duties of the Presidency. His first move was one which was surprising, but not completely unexpected.

Consistent with his plea for his bodyguards to "go easy on [Czolgosz]", the Major issued a commutation of Czolgosz's death sentence, and Czolgosz was set to serve life in prison instead. Czolgosz, having always been of a sickly disposition, perished just under twelve years later, probably of tuberculosis.

The commutation was not without controversy. Some more conservative members of both parties felt that pardons and commutations should only be issued in cases of judicial error, not simply at the whim of the President. There wasn't much room for argument, however, given the circumstances.

 

[ersatz-york]

CHAPTER TWO
Sacuanjoche

Central America as it appeared in 1900
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The idea of constructing a transoceanic canal across the Central American isthmus was not a new one; the first surveys for such a purpose were conducted during the reign of Charles V, when those territories were still under Spanish rule. Since then, centuries had passed and Spanish fortunes had faded, as the recent Spanish-American War had dramatically illustrated. Now, the most dominant power in the region was the United States, led by the reticent imperialist McKinley, who was vigorous in pursuing Hawaiian annexation and expanding the US Navy but very reluctant to go to war with Spain, having experienced first-hand the sorrows of war.

The 1896 GOP platform had declared support for a number of measures intended to enhance America's standing in the world; among them were calls to expand the Navy, annex Hawaii, support Cuban independence, and to build a canal through Nicaragua.

While American politicians and businessmen discussed the possibility of a canal through Nicaragua, France had already set out on the construction of its own canal in the Colombian province of Panama. Plagued by monumental engineering challenges and a high mortality rate among the construction workers, the whole ordeal seemed less like a project to allow ships to pass between the Caribbean and the Pacific and more like a sieve through which the fortunes and lives of hundreds of thousands of investors and workers passed without discernible gain.

When Leon Czolgosz made his ill-starred attempt on the President's life in late 1901, sentiment in Washington leaned more towards a Nicaraguan canal than a Colombian one. In early November, Secretary of State John Hay and his British opposite number (and Ambassador to the United States), Lord Pauncefote, concluded a treaty (which nullified the Clayton-Bulwer Treaty of 1850) which granted the United States the right to create, control, and fortify an Isthmian canal. Just where, however, this canal would be situated remained a topic for debate.

A Nicaraguan canal seemed then to be the safe prospect, but there existed a devoted grouping of people dedicated to the construction of a Panamanian canal and willing to use any means to bring it into existence.

At the center of the canal issue were the questions of how much digging should be done and what payment would be necessary in order for that digging to occur. Without a doubt, the Nicaraguan option was the one which was easier to construct; while it would require the installation of "locks" just as its Colombian counterpart would, the Nicaraguan canal would follow the course of the San Juan River, allowing for dredging operations to be conducted on top of an existing river; the Panamanian option would entail the construction of an artificial river.

On top of the physical digging, there was also the question of how much political "digging" needed to be done. With regard to the Nicaraguan option, this meant negotiating the cession of the southern bank of the San Juan River from Costa Rica. Otherwise, Nicaragua was a stable country where there would be no unrest to jeopardize the construction and function of the canal. The same could not be said for the other option, where separatist sentiment was brewing in Panama. Such unrest, it was thought, could potentially disrupt the operations of any canal there.

A map of Lake Nicaragua and its surroundings. Visible at right is the San Juan River, which forms a significant portion of the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica.​

In 1899, the Nicaraguan Canal Commission (established in the opening days of the McKinley administration) concluded that a Nicaraguan canal could be achieved for $138 million in total. Given the complex engineering challenges associated with a canal through Panama, as well as the need to purchase the French stake there, it could be reasonably concluded by any observer that a Panamanian canal would be both costlier and riskier. With both the numbers and Washington favoring the Nicaraguan option, 1901 drew to a close with a favorable outlook for the Nicaraguan Canal's prospects; in early 1902 the House of Representatives voted in favor of the Nicaraguan option. It would not be so easy from there on out.

In order to make the Panamanian option competitive, the Panama Canal Company's representative in Washington, Phillipe Bunau-Varilla, offered to sell the entire French stake in Panama to the US for just $40 million. Momentum, however, vastly favored the Nicaraguan option. It would take an upset to truly level the playing field.

On Ascension Day 1902, the upset that Bunau-Varilla had hoped for was delivered, seemingly by the land itself of France. Mount Pelée, on the French island of Martinique, had erupted spectacularly, destroying completely the town of Saint-Pierre. The Caribbean eruption had thrust Nicaragua's own volcanoes into the spotlight. Supporters of the Panamanian option called into question the long-term viability of any canal which could be threatened by volcanic eruption. In truth, Nicaragua's principal active volcano, Momotombo, was nearly 150 kilometers away from the canal and posed no risk to such an investment. The Nicaraguan government was sure to do its best to make that truth clear.

A rare, never-circulated Nicaraguan stamp featuring Momotombo.
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Though an education campaign on the part of the staunchest pro-Nicaraguan senators and the Nicaraguan government had staunched the bleeding, the eruption of Mount Pelée and the subsequent concerns raised over Nicaraguan volcanoes had certainly made things competitive. The McKinley administration itself was split over the issue, with the Major backing the Nicaraguan Canal as the safer, more practical option (and the one he had campaigned on in 1896), while the adventurous Roosevelt sensed that the Panamanian option could be exploited to carve out of Colombia a Panamanian state beholden to US interests. In late June, the Senate convened for a vote, the tally being 49-41 to authorize the construction of a canal through Nicaragua.

Subsequently, the United States negotiated the Hay-Corea Treaty with Nicaragua. In exchange for $11 million and an annual payment, the United States received a perpetually renewable lease on the lands required for the canal itself. The United States was allowed to fortify and garrison this canal with its own military forces. Lake Nicaragua and its surroundings remained Nicaraguan territory, but the US Navy was allowed to station ships on the islands of Lake Nicaragua and conduct military exercises within the waters of the lake. In a subsequent treaty with Costa Rica, the United States paid $2 million in exchange for the cession of the south bank of the San Juan River and a five-mile-wide strip of land.

A transoceanic canal was on its way.