Carnation Revolution goes bad

That depends if the supporters of the Estado Novo fight back. The problem they had was that they did not control many sectors of the Portuguese military. If there is a civil strife that results from this, it would probably come from those opposed to it in Portugal's colonies, Angola and Mozambique especially. (And that's possible - over a million Portuguese were displaced after the African colonies became independent.)
 

Lusitania

Donor
The estado novo had sealed their fate when in 1973 an aborted revolt by member of the army was put down and the army did not punish the revolters (kill them).

The Estado novo needed the army to keep control of the people and when they turned on the government it had no-one.

While Portugal had close to 1 million Portuguese living overseas many of those were not keen supporters of the estado Novo. Yes they supported their position but not the police and PIDE.

There also lacked a credible leader in the colonies that could inspire the Portuguese people to resist the revolt.

The Portuguese armed forces was already fighting an armed insurection by communist guerrilas and the prospect of fighting amongst themselves was something everyone wished to avoid. It would of resulted in additional thousands of people dying.
 

Cook

Banned
Could the Revolution have been hijacked by Communists like the 26th of July movement in Cuba was?
 

Cook

Banned
Well that's what happened in Cuba.
The bulk of the anti-Batista revolutionaries were not Communist.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Could the Revolution have been hijacked by Communists like the 26th of July movement in Cuba was?

Grand Theft Revolution!!!!!!!

Well that's what happened in Cuba.
The bulk of the anti-Batista revolutionaries were not Communist.


Actualy the Communist did attempt to hijack the revolution a year later in 1975, but only one or two military bases supported it and the democratic government had the support of the rest of the armed forces so it peetered out.

Incidently that became one of the catalysts for the independence movements in the azores and madeira islands and as a comprimised they were made autonomous regions of Portugal.
 
Actualy the Communist did attempt to hijack the revolution a year later in 1975, but only one or two military bases supported it and the democratic government had the support of the rest of the armed forces so it peetered out.

Spain had plans to invade with US blessing if such a thing had happened. Of course, in 1975, Spain had more pressing issues to deal with than a commie Portugal.
 
Actualy the Communist did attempt to hijack the revolution a year later in 1975, but only one or two military bases supported it and the democratic government had the support of the rest of the armed forces so it peetered out.

But could they have hijacked it still in the craddle, in 1974? At least at the time of the Revolution many were affraid that Portugal was turning communist (well, others actually hoped that it would happen).
 

Lusitania

Donor
But could they have hijacked it still in the craddle, in 1974? At least at the time of the Revolution many were affraid that Portugal was turning communist (well, others actually hoped that it would happen).

Only through civil war, I believe that the communist only had between 25-50 of the armed forces, so yes they could of tried but they would of been involved in civil war. I do not think that the majority of the people army were ready for that.
 
One thing is sure: Chico Buarque would need to write other version to "Tanto Mar" (and possibly to "Fado Tropical" too).:p
 

Cook

Banned
Spain had plans to invade with US blessing if such a thing had happened. Of course, in 1975, Spain had more pressing issues to deal with than a commie Portugal.

So you have a leftist revolution in Portugal receiving widespread international recognition before being attacked by Franco’s Spain.

A fascist state has just attacked a member of NATO!
The international media goes berserk.

The Revolutionary Government immediately appeals to it’s NATO allies for assistance.

Nixon is faced with the problem of whether to now publicly assist a government he suspects of being pro-Communist against an invasion he new about in advance and secretly approved of.

If he does, Spain will immediately reveal that he has already given them the green light to invade. Such a revelation could be enough to bring down his presidency and see him impeached.

If he doesn’t he’ll be accused of abandoning an ally, a founding member of NATO. It would destroy US credibility and quite possibly the entire alliance. All of her international partners would doubt US reliability. International opinion of America, already low after Vietnam would hit rock bottom.

The slightest hesitation on the part of the US and Britain to provide aid to Portugal could have a devastating effect on the entire alliance. The immediate consequence would be an appeal by the Revolutionary government for assistance from the wider international community.

The Soviet Union offers to send material assistance to the Portugal if the new government withdraws from NATO and joins the Non-aligned movement.

The Revolutionary council, fighting for survival begins rounding up members of the old regime. These are soon joined by people critical of the revolution and others who previously were vocal in their support of the west. The revolution begins to slip into the hands of the radicals...
 
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