Carl Schurz dies between 1872 and 1876

If for some reason Carl Schurz were to die in an accident betwen 1872 and 1876, would Rutherford B. Hayes have become president? I doubt it. It is remarkable how most of the supporters of the Liberal Republican movement of 1872 backed Hayes over Tilden in 1876, despite Tilden's record as a reformer. One very important reason for that was Schurz's assurances that in nominating Hayes the Republicans had really nominated "our man without knowing it." Schurz had led the "Independent" movement from its inception and had worked hard for Benjamin Bristow http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Bristow at the Republican convention, so it was thought that his judgment could be trusted. (One thing that influenced Schurz: While Tilden may have been "sound" on the currency question, his running mate, Thomas A. Hendricks of Indiana, was not.) If not for Schurz's support, Hayes could probably not have carried Ohio (a very close state in the election); and without Ohio Hayes would have lost regardless of the disputed southern states. http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1876.txt

For that matter, Hayes might never have become Governor of Ohio (and hence a plausible presidential candidate) if not for Schurz; Schurz's support was crucial with the German vote in Ohio in Hayes' 1875 race against Governor William Allen. And if Allen had defeated Hayes in 1875 http://www.ohiohistorycentral.org/w/Allen,_William?rec=132 and the Democrats still nominate Tilden in 1876, Tilden will probably beat any Republican candidate other than Hayes in Ohio and therefore the nation.

OTOH, if Allen won, Tilden might not win the Democratic nomination at all. To quote an old soc.history.what-if post of mine: "I do think that if Hendricks had won the Democratic presidential nomination and then the election in 1876 there could have been a real change in financial policy. My POD is to have William Allen narrowly win the governorship of Ohio against Hayes in 1875, and have the momentum of Allen's victory generate another soft-money Democratic victory in Pennsylvania a month afterwards. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania_gubernatorial_election,_1875 This is a stinging defeat for the Tilden hard-money wing of the Democratic party, and in 1876 Hendricks wins the nomination and defeats Blaine in the general election. (Of course I'm not sure his opponent will be Blaine--no doubt in the absence of Hayes there could be some other "dark horse" Republican alternative to Blaine, Conkling and the rest.) If that happens we could see the 'Crime of 1873' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coinage_Act_of_1873#.22Crime_of_.2773.22 reversed and silver re-monetized. After all, one reason the Senate watered down the Bland-Allison bill https://books.google.com/books?id=xsS5drpTYfIC&pg=PA14 in OTL may have been the (futile) hope of avoiding a Hayes veto or (more realistically) being able to override one if it occurred."
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Very interesting set of ideas...

Very interesting set of ideas...

Given the recent unplesantness, however, seems a bloody shirt could still be waved ... It's only a decade since Appomatox, after all.

Grant running again is very unlikely, but there are some other former general officers from Ohio who, one would think, could make a strong showing.

One of the McCooks, or the Ewings, perhaps - maybe even Cump, who certainly is the darkest of dark horses.

Best,
 
Top