Cape Penal Colony, not Australia

What if the British had captured the Cape Colony during the American Revolution* and used that as a post-war penal colony rather than colonize Australia for the purpose?

*Needless to say the Dutch join the war

Who would colonize Australia in Britain's stead? Would the British colonize Australia anyways?
 
The British would colonize Australia anyway, because extra land never hurt, especially after losing the 13 colonies. Brits also wouldn't want the land to fall in Dutch or French hands during the French revolutionary wars.
 
What if the British had captured the Cape Colony during the American Revolution* and used that as a post-war penal colony rather than colonize Australia for the purpose?

*Needless to say the Dutch join the war

Who would colonize Australia in Britain's stead? Would the British colonize Australia anyways?


Why would they seize it?
 
Because they're at war and the British tended to seize their enemies' colonies during a war.

Plus the cape is quite the strategic location - controlling the route to the Indian Ocean.

Problem with that is if, and it is a big if, the Dutch would engage the British Navy in the Channel, like in the previous Anglo-Dutch Wars. This precludes most offensives against the Cape. Also had that event happened it would be a clean sweep against the British, the main reason the Americans had a hard time was because of the British Navy, which would be to some extent neutralised by the Dutch Navy, thus the above scenario wouldn't work.
 
The British did declare was on the Dutch during the American War of Indpeendence:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Anglo-Dutch_War

Here is the quote from that article in reference to the Cape Colony:

"In March 1781 British admiral George Johnstone was sent to capture the Cape Colony. France, which had already planned to send a fleet to India, received intelligence of this, and directed its commander, the Bailli de Suffren, to try to reach the Cape before Johnstone. After Johnstone and Suffren met in a happenstance battle in the Cape Verde Islands, Suffren was able to arrive before Johnstone, and the strength of French troops he left dissuaded Johnstone from attacking the colony. After capturing a number of VOC ships in the nearby Saldanha Bay, he returned to North Atlantic waters."

With that out of the way, diverting the stream of convicts from Australia to the Cape has huge effects later in history. One question, which I don't know the answer to, is how much the British bother with Australia.

Note that the Bantu did not go past the Great Fish River when they migrated into what is now South Africa. The Western Cape is the one province in South Africa where Bantu/ Africans are in the minority (33%) and this is after many were brought in for the cheap labor. With lots of Irish convicts available, there would be no need for the cheap labor, so a much greater Colored (IOTL close to a majority) and White proportion of the population. At the same time, the area would be much less Afrikaner in culture and language, and considerably more Catholic.

Basically replace the current demographics of the Western Cape with that of New South Wales, plus a higher population. Other parts of South Africa gain more Bantu and probably more Afrikaners as well, as more leave on the Great Trek.

There is a good chance that this butterflies into no Union of South Africa, and if there is a Union of South Africa there will be much more support for the Labour Party in the (whites only) early twentieth century elections, and much less for the various Afrikaner nationalist parties. With the Union of South Africa not being formed or likely to fall apart, the British would have to come up with some other scheme to maintain control of the Transvaal mines.
 
Top