Cao Cao Victorious at Chibi

I'm not quite sure if this'll get much in the way of response, but here goes.

Having gotten much more interested in this period of Chinese history, a somewhat large WI came to mind. What if Cao Cao, having already united the North China Plains and on the verge of crushing all opposition, been victorious at the Battle of Red Cliffs? Butterflies away the Three Kingdoms era, certainly, but what are the long term effects of such a victory (and long-term effects it might very well have)?
 
A more unified China, at least at first. However, if the regnal roster continues like it did historically, with say Cao Cao finishing his take over of China just before his death, then they will have problems for his grandson Cao Rui. That is, if he ever reigns at all. There will likely be tons of rebellions after Cao Pi declares himself Emperor. It would be like the Sui dynasty that arose after the collapse of the Jin. Chances are Cao Pi might still come up on top, but there are no guarantees. Cao Pi was also rediculously short lived in his reign, around 10 years or so, and Cao Rui was incapable of rule. He'd likely be deposed and the cycle would return, with China being rife with warlordism. None of the Cao's after Cao Pi were the least most capable of rule.
 
If Cao Cao had won. The three kingdoms would still exist. With most of Wu gone there would have been a power vacuum between those who wanted to carry on resisting and those who wanted to give in (before chibi Sun Quan had already considered surrendering). What happens next depends on the next decision Cao Cao makes. He can even continue south and finish off Wu and any other southern resistance or he could leave the South and go after Liu Bei.
If Cao Cao decides to finish off the south then there is a chance that Liu Bei could still get a foothold in Shu and put on a grand fight.
It is also worth remembering that a big part of Cao Caos army was recently part of Yuan Shao's army and morale was very low. Going into even more battles may have finished him off. There was also a rebellion from a coalition in Guanxi. If Cao Cao had continued south then that rebellion would have been very costly.
In my humble opinion Cao Caos best move would have been to return home and rest his men. That way he could've defeated the rebellion at Tong Pass with relative ease and his strength would have been too much for anyone else to deal with. That is ofcourse provided the casualty rate at chibi isn't too high.
Was you thinking of Cao Cao winning easily with minimal casualties (i.e. his ships not being chained together and burning in no time) or something more historical where most of his fleet burns but still manages to claw a victory?
 
]Was you thinking of Cao Cao winning easily with minimal casualties (i.e. his ships not being chained together and burning in no time) or something more historical where most of his fleet burns but still manages to claw a victory?

My preference is he doesn't make the risky decision to chain his ships together, and see how the battle goes from there...

ADD: Or, if you want a lopsided victory, you could just have the wind not changing be the PoD...
 
If the ships aren't chained together then that gives the ships a better chance to seperate. Even with wind it does lower the casualties.
However, without the wind it would mean that the fire would have difficulty spreading. It would require a lot more fire to burn all those ships. Without the wind casualties are at the very worst minimal. Thus buggering up Wu and putting Liu Bei into a right panic. Not to mention a much sooner unified China.
With this victory Liu Bei wouldn't stand a chance, even if Zhuge Liang is the military genius ROTK portrays him to be. With this quick victory the Wei dynasty would begin and there would have been no Sima Yi to start the Jin dynasty.
 
Wei's still going to have problems further down the line if we assume the same succession. The Cao Cao's descendants were a pretty useless bunch.
 
I can imagine Wei not lasting too long. Strange how often some of the smartest people in history have absolute pillocks for descendants.
The effect on the three kingdoms period is quite significant but on overall Chinese history I think the effect would be minimal. I can't imagine the Wei dynasty having a life any longer than that of the Jin Dynasty (155 years).

This topic has revitalized my interest in this period. Now thinking there are many different turning points that could lead to totally different results. I love AH.
 
I'm not quite sure if this'll get much in the way of response, but here goes.

Having gotten much more interested in this period of Chinese history, a somewhat large WI came to mind. What if Cao Cao, having already united the North China Plains and on the verge of crushing all opposition, been victorious at the Battle of Red Cliffs? Butterflies away the Three Kingdoms era, certainly, but what are the long term effects of such a victory (and long-term effects it might very well have)?

Regretfully, the battle of Chibi was begun as an overlook in strategy on parts of Cao Cao. Its success would mostly not see a "finish-off" of the coalition and quick unification of all China, but rather a orderly fallback, reorganization and reconsideration of strategical position. Cao Cao likely hadn't predicted a full-scale conflict with Wu at the beginning of the Jingxiang campaign. He didn't really have that much manpower to utilize from the unified but devastated northern plains to completely overpower a considerable number of better-trained and adapted Wu army, estimated at 30 thousand.

As other fellow members mentioned, the Wei army was consisted of many newly-surrendered, demoralized soldiers of former warlords, Cao Cao was not really at a position to advance into the heartland of Wu even if Chibi was a victory. And further long-term development still had to depend on the reactions and measures taken by the three sides, although with Cao Cao being in a generally better shape than IOTL.

Strategically, given his careful approach, it seems that he had wanted to extinguish any viable forces of Liu Bei before it turned into a serious threat (which was later proven correct), and conquer Jingxiang as a base to train a water-capable army, and only then to deal with Wu. He succeeded in conquering Jingxiang but fail to capture Liu Bei. Cao Cao then made a wrong assumption that Wu would not immediately try to lend a helping hand to and ally with Liu Bei, but go for its own survival at times of severe threat.

He thought he can destroy Liu Bei's army before Wu decided to help, thus he ordered his under-prepared army to chase after Liu Bei and sent three regiments to the east front to seemingly wage a attack on Wu (plus an envoy to Wu who greatly exaggerated the number of his force), in order to scare them into submission, or at least make them concentrate their force instead of sending out their army first. It didn't work as what Cao Cao would have like, and Cao Cao was forced to fight a war with his army diverted, the 70 thousand soldier formerly belonging to Liu Cong as the bulk of his army, and with widespread blood-fluke infestation to add salt to the wound; Careful and calculating as he was, he definitely wouldn't have been pushing his luck again even if he had won there, which would have been quite a miracle and at a great cost in any situation.

Some say if Guo Jia hadn't died at such an early age, he could somehow magically turn this big defeat into a victory. But IMO, given his strategical insight, he would have dissuaded Cao Cao from launching this under-prepared campaign to begin with.

Wei's still going to have problems further down the line if we assume the same succession. The Cao Cao's descendants were a pretty useless bunch.

I can imagine Wei not lasting too long. Strange how often some of the smartest people in history have absolute pillocks for descendants.
(snip)

Well, at least his immediate descendants weren't that bad. Cao Ang was humble and competent, yet died tragically early. Cao Pi was also a competent administrator and innovating legislator, though he was not magnanimous and fair enough as his father, which may have leaded to the intrigue later in the court; IMO his initial indecisiveness in choosing a heir may have also deprived Cao Rui from the chance of a proper heir-grooming, and everything went downhill thereafter.
 
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