CanPol: WI Bob Rae wins Liberal leadership in '06?

I agree on Ontario. However Rae was by far the most politically skilled of the '06 troika, which might have its own butterflies. Or I can modify the OP: Kennedy becomes the compromise candidate instead of Dion, which only requires the delegates applauding Hall Findlay and not switching.
 
Actually, I wonder if Rae being Federal Leader of the Liberals in 2006 would have any impact on the 2007 Ontario Election? Might we see Premier John Tory?
 
Actually, I wonder if Rae being Federal Leader of the Liberals in 2006 would have any impact on the 2007 Ontario Election? Might we see Premier John Tory?

If the faith school controversy gets avoided, then assuming no other butterflies yes.

Quebec provincial: could go to any of the 3 parties. Though given that this was the peak of the reasonable accommodation debate, more likely an ADQ than a PQ victory (Boisclair was a weak leader with several gaffes and a small whisper campaign about his sexuality in rural areas) if you want to use butterflies.

September by-elections: Rae and Martha Hall Findlay win easily. Vancouver Quadra could go Conservative or Liberal.

The major potential change is in Outremont. IOTL Dion wanted it held for his star environmentalist, who turned out to be a gaffe-prone candidate with views on the Middle East that didn't sit well with the local Jewish community. Since Rae is leader ITTL, the original applicant, Justin Trudeau, gets the Liberal nomination. Then you set up a very *interesting* and media-saturated duel with Tom Mulcair, less than 1000 votes either way will determine who wins that. Rae is well-liked in Quebec as a key player in Meech and Charlottetown, but this fight is entirely between the candidates.
 
Then you set up a very *interesting* and media-saturated duel with Tom Mulcair, less than 1000 votes either way will determine who wins that.

I recall hearing about some debate in which Mulcair apparently ripped Justin Trudeau apart. Not sure when or where it happened though. I'll try looking for it on YouTube. However, if it's true, I imagine Mulcair would be able to win by just a bit. Either way, Trudeau could always just run elsewhere in the future.
 
If the faith school controversy gets avoided, then assuming no other butterflies yes.

The faith schools controversy looked like a good idea at the time. There had been a court case earlier in the year about funding all schools tailored to people of different faiths, and it looked like a good way to score points with the ethnic voters that have very large numbers in many portions of Toronto and the 905 belt. However, thanks to McGuinty's fearmongering (helped totally inadvertantly - I think - but the Toronto Sun and the National Post), it blew up in his face, and his changing positions on this did more harm than good.

Quebec provincial: could go to any of the 3 parties. Though given that this was the peak of the reasonable accommodation debate, more likely an ADQ than a PQ victory (Boisclair was a weak leader with several gaffes and a small whisper campaign about his sexuality in rural areas) if you want to use butterflies.

Boisclair's problems with weakness and inexperience apply double to Mario Dumont. He had no hope of a majority, and as a minority Charest would eat him alive. It showed rather clearly that the ADQ was a temporary blast to both the separatists (at the peak of the reasonable accommodation debate, separatists didn't look good) and to Jean Charest's crooked Liberals. Once Charest got some form back, the ADQ sank right back into the gutter. I know you want to see good Conservative fortunes there, but it ain't happening, and Rae instead of Dion probably has little effect in Quebec, aside from Outremont of course.
 
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The faith schools controversy looked like a good idea at the time. There had been a court case earlier in the year about funding all schools tailored to people of different faiths, and it looked like a good way to score points with the ethnic voters that have very large numbers in many portions of Toronto and the 905 belt. However, thanks to McGuinty's fearmongering (helped totally inadvertantly - I think - but the Toronto Sun and the National Post), it blew up in his face, and his changing positions on this did more harm than good.



Boisclair's problems with weakness and inexperience apply double to Mario Dumont. He had no hope of a majority, and as a minority Charest would eat him alive. It showed rather clearly that the ADQ was a temporary blast to both the separatists (at the peak of the reasonable accommodation debate, separatists didn't look good) and to Jean Charest's crooked Liberals. Once Charest got some form back, the ADQ sank right back into the gutter. I know you want to see good Conservative fortunes there, but it ain't happening, and Rae instead of Dion probably has little effect in Quebec, aside from Outremont of course.

So, I guess the most realistic option in Ontario is McGuinty being reduced to a minority, or is a small PC majority (no more than 58 seats) possible?

Quebec: The ADQ's numbers start jumping in January '07, but a minority is definitely possible. I remember the ADQ being ahead in the counting for quite a while that night. Another scenario is a Liberal minority with the PQ as OO and the ADQ in third- a slightly smaller pro-ADQ swing.

No way in hell is Boisclair winning government, since this MacPherson column reminded me just how amateurish the man was.

I doubt Harper gets too cozy with Dumont if he wins a minority because that will cause even more damage to his relationship than Charest than OTL once Charest wins TTL's 2008 provincial election. Boisclair will probably be forced out at some point due to his erratic behaviour, but if he does well enough he'll be able to hang on for another year.
 
I'm into the planning stages of this TL now, and just seeking opinions on whether it would be easier for Rae to win with Dion or Kennedy as the third main candidate.
 
So, how would Rae perform in an ATL '07 or '08 election? If Harper keeps the momentum he had in Quebec during September '08 IOTL, plus the extra seats in Ontario (IOTL 13 went from Red to Blue) that could be a majority right there. Dhalla and Dosanjh top the Tory target list.

Here's a Trendlines projection from late September: 160-C, 81-L, 32-BQ, NDP-30, I-1. Too rosy for either Grits or Tories?
 
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