Canaris Caught

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Deleted member 1487

What if Wilhelm Canaris was caught earlier passing information to the allies? In OTL he was executed in 1945, but what if he was caught early 1940? Let's say that someone in his office happens to catch on and passes that knowledge to the SS. What effect does this have on the war? Who takes over the Abwehr? I think that Heydrich was a possiblity based off of the wikipedia entry on Canaris:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Canaris

This is clearly a massive hinderence to the allied war effort as this man was a major link to the highest intelligence in germany. Churchill even mentioned him in an address to parliment in 1945 as one of the best intelligence sources of the allies. I am not exactly sure what the effects would be on the war, as it is not listed what intelligence was passed on, but it is possible that the 1944 assassination attempt would never have gone off without Abwehr backing. Also, if the SS/SD and Heydrich take over, then it is likely that he would never be assassinated, as the catalyst for it was to perserve Canaris's position was under investigation by Heydrich. With this ruthless individual at the helm of German intelligence services, it is likely that the numerous successes of the allies in the intelligence department would be comprimised and the success the germans experienced against the dutch resistance might have been repeated on a larger, more painful scale.

Overall, the effects on the war would not necessarily be felt until a little later. France would still fall and it is very likely that the BOB would still fail. However, once Heydrich (who I will say takes over for the sake of argument) cements his power in the Abwehr and the other services, it is likely he will have enough power to lever out Himmler, who was legendary for his incompetence and bizarre beliefs. Nazi Germany just became a much scarier thing.
I wonder what success may be had against Rote Kappelle, the Soviet intelligence network in Germany. But as far as North Africa goes, it is very likely that many more convoys might have gotten through which, despite the logistics situation, will make some difference in the outcome. Perhaps the war in Africa continues for longer, but a victory is unlikely. Enigma might become much less useful without Canaris and may be discovered by the SS controlled Abwehr. Also it is increasingly likely that the Germans might be successful in infiltrating agents into England and the US.

Overall, Russia might not change too much, but Western allied invasions of Europe might meet much more resistance and suffer accordingly. Thoughts?
 
Its rather difficult to calculate the effect of the Abwehr’s anti-Nazi activities.
They did perform at sub-optimum level and Canaris certainly helped persuade Franco to stay neutral. However, Military Intelligence had a very low priority in German military operations. Time and time again, the Germans planned operations based on what they wanted to achieve, not on what they could support or even what the enemy was up to or had available, relying on German prowess and short knock-out campaigns.

If the SS takes over, there would be an initial drop in efficiency as they would lack the necessary skills in intelligence work. That would eventually be compensated, probably by 1942.

The first major impact would be Spain. Franco would not have his historical insight in German demands and means provided by Canaris and might now have great difficulty in fending off Germany and Italy’s quid pro quo demands. If Spain were to join the Axis and agree with an assault on the rock, Gibraltar would eventually become untenable. This would close off the Mediterranean for the British and have grave repercussions for their entire position in the Med. Not only would Malta become untenable, so would their position in Egypt. British supplies would have to pass along Africa while Axis supplies would be largely safe. That would change the entire dynamics of a North African campaign.

Allied Intelligence operations would become more difficult if indeed the Abwehr was secretly assisting them. This would lead to more costly Allied operations and perhaps a more hesitant Allied High Command.

Perhaps the greatest what if is the state of Enigma. I don’t believe for a moment that nobody in the German Intelligence believed Enigma could not be broken. It seems likely that Canaris did not try very hard to ensure the safety of the German communications system or pursue the fact that it was broken. The SS under Heydrich would be more likely to spot the broken code system and change it. Now that would have had major repercussions on WWII.
 
There are certainly army-based conspiracies that do not rely on the Abwehr (von Tresckow for example plays a pivotal role in early efforts and plans, but couldn't get the backing of the senior generals he approached, plus Hitler kept changing his travel arrangements for the very reason of avoiding assassination)

I would question how much Canaris did HIMSELF, at least before 1943 - was not a lot of the earlier passing of information done by Oster ?

I suppose Heydrich is a possibility but I think it likely it would still end up being parcelled off to Schellenberg

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Germany had the second-worst intelligence security after Japan. Given that Japan was a hopeless cause from the very beginning, it is safe to say that in terms of real damage to the war effort, Germany's busted intel network did the most 'functional' harm. Some sort of an efficiency-driven sociopath in charge of a unified informations structure could prove extremely useful.
 
Germany had the second-worst intelligence security after Japan. Given that Japan was a hopeless cause from the very beginning, it is safe to say that in terms of real damage to the war effort, Germany's busted intel network did the most 'functional' harm. Some sort of an efficiency-driven sociopath in charge of a unified informations structure could prove extremely useful.

Well, Schellenberg was the guy responsible for the Venlo incident. If he had got his hands on the Abwehr two years earlier ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
At worst, a prolonged (and more costly) WWII with atom bombs used against both Germany and Japan. At best, nothing much changes other than more costly Allied casualties.
 
At worst, a prolonged (and more costly) WWII with atom bombs used against both Germany and Japan. At best, nothing much changes other than more costly Allied casualties.

Laterally thinking, would a Schellenberg-run Abwehr from 1942 have noticed that Enigma had been broken ? 1942 was the year when 5 out of 5 of Rommel's tankers were sunk due to Ultra, for example

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Laterally thinking, would a Schellenberg-run Abwehr from 1942 have noticed that Enigma had been broken ? 1942 was the year when 5 out of 5 of Rommel's tankers were sunk due to Ultra, for example

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

It is certainly possible, but IIRC the Allies took great pains themselves to disguise the fact that they had broken the Enigma.
 
It is certainly possible, but IIRC the Allies took great pains themselves to disguise the fact that they had broken the Enigma.

True, but there were mistakes in over-use of decrypts that could only have come from Ultra. Luckily for the Allies, the Germans had a paranoid tendency to blame any strange phenomena like these on untrustworthy allies (er, thats Italians) and on treachery at dockyards etc

An intelligent man at the hub of things, distanced from inter-service rivalry, and able to look at things on clearer merits, might well begin to question whether this is so.

In Macksey's book "Without Enigma" he has Fellgiebel (c-in-c signals) do this, but if the Abwehr was broken earlier and Schellenberg in place earlier, might he not work it out for himself ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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