Canadian First Nations in a Quebec "yes" vote

I can see that being the final outcome and "best case scenario" for an independent Quebec. I can also see it getting ugly fast: If someone starts shooting, then the federal government would be hard pressed not to intervene.

If Quebec was against Ottawa getting involved, I don't see why Ottawa would. More likely scenario is they say "it's their problem" and wash their hands of it. Canadians are not gonna like seeing Quebecers and the Canadian Army shooting at one another, and Ottawa is not gonna send the Canadian Army in for the sake of the Cree, as they know it would cause more harm than good for everyone else.
 
If Quebec was against Ottawa getting involved, I don't see why Ottawa would. More likely scenario is they say "it's their problem" and wash their hands of it. Canadians are not gonna like seeing Quebecers and the Canadian Army shooting at one another.

Maybe I have too rosy a picture of quebecois and canadians but unless things changed realy fast following sovereignty, I don't realy see them starting to shoot at one another. I'm not saying either sides don't have their extremists but you have admit that the debate has rarely excalated beyond shouting (the half dozen felquistes' actions pre 70s being the exception).
 
Maybe I have too rosy a picture of quebecois and canadians but unless things changed realy fast following sovereignty, I don't realy see them starting to shoot at one another. I'm not saying either sides don't have their extremists but you have admit that the debate has rarely excalated beyond shouting (the half dozen felquistes' actions pre 70s being the exception).

I agree with that statement, and will add to it. Canadians in general abhor violence and have the viewpoint that it is only to be used if absolutely necessary. Furthermore, the FLQ and the October Crisis in 1970 they caused galvanized the public on both sides of the debate and began the economic exodus that Montreal suffered in the 1970s. Neither Quebec City nor Ottawa would be keen to see that happen again. I figure that worse come to worse Quebec City would weigh the alternatives and cut a deal with the Native Canadians, even if a few more Okas happened.
 
If Quebec was against Ottawa getting involved, I don't see why Ottawa would. More likely scenario is they say "it's their problem" and wash their hands of it. Canadians are not gonna like seeing Quebecers and the Canadian Army shooting at one another, and Ottawa is not gonna send the Canadian Army in for the sake of the Cree, as they know it would cause more harm than good for everyone else.

On the other hand, if the Cree and the Surite de Quebec are shooting at each other, and Ottawa does nothing, how does that look in the media or to Chretien's rivals? Chretien and his government are going to be in a situation where they have no control over the pace or course of events, and every choice they make will have to be the lesser evil. (The same can be said for Parizaeu's government. They'll opened quite the can of worms, and have no chance of packing them all back in...) The extremists (well-intentioned or not) that will inevitably pop out of the woodwork will just inflame the situation further and possibly be enough to turn a complete clusterfuck into a disaster.

I'd actually (have) consider(ed) it a miracle if in the aftermath of a "Yes" vote there were no riots or shootings. At the time of the 1995 referendum, one of the most common opinions I heard for what should be done in the event of a "Yes" vote was "Send in the Army". (The other was "If Quebec can separate from Canada, then the parts of Quebec that disagree with that can separate from Quebec".) Mind you that was in eastern Alberta so it wouldn't be indicative of other parts of Canada, but people did say it.
 
On the other hand, if the Cree and the Surite de Quebec are shooting at each other, and Ottawa does nothing, how does that look in the media or to Chretien's rivals? Chretien and his government are going to be in a situation where they have no control over the pace or course of events, and every choice they make will have to be the lesser evil. (The same can be said for Parizaeu's government. They'll opened quite the can of worms, and have no chance of packing them all back in...) The extremists (well-intentioned or not) that will inevitably pop out of the woodwork will just inflame the situation further and possibly be enough to turn a complete clusterfuck into a disaster.

You are entirely correct, and Chretien and his government will be in the situation of not being able to control what happens, but the idea of sending the Army or RCMP to fight the SQ is one which most Canadians are not going to support, not to mention it will instantly kill dead any chance of a cordial deal between Quebec and Canada and lead to a massive diplomatic mess and probably serious economic problems for Canada. It won't look different in the media, I suspect. Preston Manning or Joe Clark would not be mad enough to propose sending in the Army here either, as that would just turn a situation that Ottawa has no control over into a situation that is just that much uglier.

My figuring of the situation is that after the referendum Ottawa and Quebec City start negotiating, but the negotiations are troubled by people on both sides not liking the idea of seriously negotiating out Quebec's exit, both those who would not support the idea at all and want to make life as hard as possible for them (Manning would not be one of them, but some in his party would be) and those in Quebec who want give Canada a last FU on the way out. The Cree make it clear that they do not want to be part of Canada and try to break off their areas, particularly in Northern Quebec. Several Oka-style situations happen, and a few of these get out of control and result in firefights between the SQ and native protesters.

At this point, there are two options:

1) Quebec realizes that the La Grande project is needed for their economic survival and they cut a deal with the Cree to give them special rights and priviledges, and they negotiate their way out. This relies on Ottawa not getting involved in the situations. Politicians like Ralph Klein and Mike Harris are not gonna like the idea of staying out of it (Harris in particular will be smarting at this point from the death of Dudley George at Ipperwash), but the Chretien government would be able to sort it out. Manning won't interfere in this beyond criticizing the results, for the same reason as Chretien. Both sides separate amicably, and the transition to independence diplomatically is fairly smooth. Economics are a problem for both sides, but worse for now debt-heavy Quebec. In Ottawa, little changes much at first - the Liberals would actually have a bigger majority minus the Quebec seats than before - but the long-term effect would be to make the debate over the power of the federation be between Ontario and the West, though Atlantic Canada would be a more influential bloc as well. The Liberals are still the dominant party, and the greater influence of the Conservatives (due to their better position in the Maritimes) will make any merger of the right more of an equal proposition.

2) After the messes, Canada demands to know why and Quebec City gets their back up. Negotiations break down, and Quebec declares independence unilaterally in the summer of 1996. This results in ugly battles between the Native Canadians and the Quebec authorities which result in dozens of deaths and considerable property damage. In Canada, Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio skyrockets to over 100% almost immediately and the country goes into a massive recession. Montreal's business community flees in considerable numbers. Massive job losses and the mess in Quebec results in Chretien's fall from power, and Manning takes over with a very hard line towards Quebec's aspirations. Quebec has no prayer of getting into NAFTA or NATO, and both countries suffer severe economic problems in the 1990s. Quebec breaks the native resistance but deals with regular native unrest for years to come, as well as diplomatic isolation from Europe. The Reform Party is unable to handle the economic problems, and when combined with the Liberals' legacies of Quebec's split, gives new life to both the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP, resulting in a series of fractious minority governments in the 2000s. Quebec is nearly bankrupt by 2003 and is forced to cut back more seriously than Canada, causing regular riots in Montreal over the economic problems and the loss of social services. The direction of those leaving Montreal will make a lot of impact - if they go to Atlantic Canada, they give the Maritimes a much stronger voice in Ottawa. If they go to Ontario or the West (probably the former more than the latter) they add to the Ottawa-vs-The Provinces debates.
 
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