Canadian Federal Elections Since 1991 Without The Bloc Quebecois

First, what would be a proper way to prevent the BQ from being formed as a Federal party in Canada?


Second, what would the past two decades worth of election look like without the BQ having such a large influence in Quebec? What parties would profit the most and the least from the absence of the BQ?
 
You would need one of two PODs. Either Meech or Charlottetown pass. That brings Quebec into the Constitution and removes the key nationalist/separatist grievance of the past 30 years. Charlottetown only lost 55-45 nationally, so flip the margin with a better Yes campaign in Quebec. To pass Meech you need to have Filmon invoke cloture or Elijah Harper gets the flu on ratification day along with Newfoundland's House of Assembly ratifying before June 22. So no BQ, and the PQ in Quebec is severely crippled.

Ramifications: Mulroney retires in the fall of 1991, sticking to his private pledge, as stated in his memoirs, not to seek a third term. Kim Campbell succeeds him. It is possible to salvage a PC minority in 1993. With all the butterflies that entails it is likely the CPC never forms, since Reform is also killed due to Meech also addressing all the Western grievances. The PC Party will continue under Blue rule as they had under Mulroney. Still possible that Harper becomes PM.

Assuming 1993 results in a Liberal majority...

1997: Chretien wins with a safe majority.

2000: Ditto.

2004: Probable Tory minority government.

200x: Tory majority.

In Quebec, the PLQ still loses after Bourassa retires in 1994. By 1990 he had already been diagnosed with the melanoma that would kill him in 1996, so you can't prevent his retirement. Parizeau, if he holds a referendum, loses by 60-40 as in 1980 and is forced to retire. That is because upon assuming the premiership he said that he was only interested in governing an independent Quebec, not the province of Quebec. Only once in the 20th century did a government lose a second term- in 1944. So the PQ wins in 1998 and Charest wins in 2003.
 

Sachyriel

Banned
An Ontario-first party takes its place. It'll probably be some weird name like "Ontario Hegemon Party" or something...
 
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