I had all this in my head a couple of months ago, but not written down, so I had to recreate it. Bleah.
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Europe 1830-1 (part 3)[/FONT]
Italy
Replacement of French rule by Austrian (which is what it amounted to) in the Congress of Vienna was a major disappointment for the locals. Austrian statements about Italy only being a geographic term didn't help. Only in Sardinia, Naples,[1] Lombardy and Venetia was there any industrial development or agricultural improvements/experimentation before 1850.
The failure of the 1820-21 revolts had discouraged people for a decade, but 1830 inspired them again. They counted on the support of Louis-Philippe of France, who had, after all loudly announced his support for reform movements everywhere, but they were disappointed – he didn't want to start a war with Austria[2]. However, the revolts in Belgium, Germany and Poland, kept Austria's attention focused north, and they didn't manage to move armies in to suppress the Italian revolts until the spring of 1831, by which time it was too late.[3]
The insurrections in Italy, partly in favour of a united Italy and partly in favour of liberalization, broke out in several places in the Papal States, Modena, and Parma. The
Duke of Modena,
Francis IV, had, as early as 1826, let it be known that he wouldn't suppress any movements for a united Italy (he was apparently trying to co-opt it and become King of at least northern Italy). However, the fervour of the revolutionaries and the lack of backing from France, made him fear for his life. He fled into Austrian territory to Mantua in Lombardy, and started to make arrangements to cruelly crush the rebellion with Austrian help.[4]
Meanwhile, the
Papal Legations of
Bologna,
Forlì,
Ravenna,
Imola,
Ferrara,
Pesaro and
Urbino had also risen in revolt against the Papacy (as territorial ruler), and the revolt spread throughout the Papal States. Pope Pius VIII[5] appealed for Austrian help in crushing the revolt, but Austria was currently occupied in Germany, and promised support “shortly”, but not immediately. This gave Murat a chance to intevene, and he leapt at the chance. He had quietly mobilized some of his army when news of the July Revolution arrived, in hopes that opportunity would knock. The insurrections just north in the Papal States were a 10kg door knocker for him. He immediately sent messengers to the Pope and to the Revolutionaries, promising his assistance in 'resolving the issues at hand'. He then moved his ready forces north to the border, 'to render assistance' (the precise nature of said assistance being unspecified<g>), while mobilizing the rest of his army. Basically, he presented himself to the Pope as an established ruler with whom he could work in taming the demands of the revolutionaries, in his feigned guise as a radical; and to the revolutionaries, as a fellow radical who could help them get what they wanted, in his feigned guise as an establishment ruler. To both parties, he emphasized the presence of the Neapolitan army growing on their border, to 'help'. Unstated, but clearly heard by both parties, was that that army was coming north, and a solution to Murat's satisfaction would be imposed. If either party joined him, they could have input in the imposed solution, if not, he would side with the other party, essentially.
This finely balanced diplomacy (balanced between one side and the other, between local interests and Murat's ambition, between threats of force and quiet persuasion) succeeded quite well. Murat was able to convince the Pope to grant some constitutional guarantees, in exchange for continued recognition of his rule, and the dangling carrot of being a figurehead leader of a Council of Italy, which Murat also proposed. He was able to convince the revolutionaries that half a loaf was better than none, that they would get assemblies (at the regional level only, initially), and the Council of Italy was the first step towards a united Italy. He wasn't able to convince anyone that his motives were as pure and disinterested as he claimed; in fact, both parties were quite able to see this as a power play on Murat's part, but the imposed solution displeased both parties equally, so they could live with it. The Pope did know that if he had waited for the Austrians to move, that he could have reimposed autocratic rule by force – but Murat and his army was there then, and the Austrians weren't. Revolution, invasion, reinvasion and suppression of revolts would have left his lands stripped and barren, and the Pope wanted to avoid that. The revolutionaries came to realize that if they had held out for all they wanted, they would have been crushed either by Murat now, or by the Austrians later. Besides, their regional assemblies and this proposed Council of Italy were first steps on the way to their goal.
And neither the Pope nor the revolutionaries want Murat's soldiers to stay any longer than they have to.
By this time, the Austrians had pulled together some southern troops that weren't being used in Germany (or Poland), and were ready to intervene in Modena. But Murat was on its southern border and poised to intervene, as well. Murat offered Francis the same deal that he offered the Pope, but as Francis is sitting in Austrian territory, with an Austrian army almost ready to march, he wasn't nearly as interested. The revolutionaries in Modena, on the other hand, seeing two armies, one on each side, realized that escaping with their lives might be about all they could hope for at this point. Murat, having seen this, offered a new deal. Francis had semi-openly supported a united Italy. Fine, he should join this new Council. Moreover, Murat's heir Achilles was still unmarried, and Francis had a marriageable daughter Maria Theresa.[6] If the two houses were united in matrimony, Francis would have a grandson who was king. Who knows, if they worked together, that grandson, or another might end up king of Italy. All Francis has to do/ is throw a few sops to the radicals (possibly a powerless assembly) and he can resume autocratic rule. Since what Francis really wanted was effective control, this wasn't too onerous a concession, and he got to ally with the rising power on the peninsula. Francis decided this new deal was in his best interests. The Austrians weren't going to offer him much more, he would be indebted big time to them (the really big boys, right next door), and they weren't offering to make his grandson a king of anywhere. So, Francis sneaked out of Mantua, and entered Modena triumphally, backed by his own army and Murat's.
Meanwhile, a revolt in Parma has been dealt with successfully. Young Prince John (Duke Anton's grandson, and younger brother to the expected heir Frederick Augustus) went out and met the demonstrators in the square outside the palace, and listened to their demands. This calmed down the mob, and they moderated their demands. They still want a constitution, an assembly and they want a young co-regent to rule with Anton, but they wouldn't rise in revolt, and they'd accept a fairly weak assembly. The mob asked for John to be the co-regent, but that would have been jumping to much of the line of succession. Maximilian (John and Frederick A's father, and Anton's son) abdicated in favour of his son Frederick Augustus who was crowned co-regent.[7] The stresses of exile from Saxony and the not-quite revolt affected Anton's health, and he withdrew from day-to-day governing, leaving that to Frederick Augustus. (When a rump Duchy of Saxony was created in '32 after the Prussian troubles, above, Anton abdicated the Saxon throne to Frederick, raising John to be co-regent of Parma, and staying there until Anton's death the next year.)
Since these Dukes of Parma were Germans, when Murat proposed the Council of Italy[8], the precedent of the German Confederation (Deutscher Bund) made them receptive to the idea, and they joined.
Tuscany. Leopold II was already fairly liberal, and there was no revolt there. Since Tuscany is completely surrounded by the Papal States, there was significant pressure to join the Council of Italy. So they did, in '35, after putting it off for a few years.[9]
Savoy/Piedmont/Sardinia. Yet again, Charles Albert tried to play both sides against the middle, and lost. He still ascended the throne in 1831, but his off-and-on support of various liberal groups lost him and his kingdom any chance to serve as the nucleus of a united Italy.[10]
Sicily was still under the Bourbon Kings. Francis I died in 1830 and was succeeded by Ferdinand II, whose liberal reputation kept Sicily from revolting in the way several other Italian polities did.[11]
The remaining major Italian polities are Lombardy and Venetia, both of which are in the Austrian Empire, and neither of which had significant revolts.
None of Sardinia, Sicily, Lombardy or Venetia even considered joining the Council of Italy, which made its pretensions of being a body for all Italy a bit hollow. The Council did have the Pope on their side, and the majority of the Italy included, so the claims weren't completely hollow.
–
1 OTL, Murat had started an infrastructure effort in the short while that he ruled Naples. With an extra decade and a half iTTL, he has continued that, and encouraged industrialization in the south. Very different from OTL, and one reason why he's still popular and why the cost of ousting him was too high for the Austrians.
2 So the Austrians were able to move in and suppress the revolts easily, iOTL.
3 Note that none of the Italian territories actually part of Austria had revolts. So even OTL, Austria took her time and didn't move her armies in until the spring. Here, because she's distracted, the armies aren't ready until almost summer.
4 all of this paragraph is as OTL.
5 Not OTL's Pius VIII, who in any case had died by now. This is Bartolomeo Pacca
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bartolomeo_Pacca, who was a pro-Austrian candidate, but narrowly lost the election of 1829. At least he's not the wild reactionary of OTL's
Pope Gregory XVI. I would have dearly loved to have make
Emmanuele De Gregorio Pope, but that just wasn't going to happen.
6 OTL Francis married in 1812, but didn't have any children until 1817. Here, he has at least a daughter rather earlier. She's still young, but not 13. Achille is obviously not the same person as OTL, having been born well after the PoD, but he is a son of approximately the same age, and with the same name. Because his dad is still king, he didn't flee to America and marry an American as the OTL equivalent did.
7 Remember that OTL, these guys are kings of Saxony. The whole 'co-regent' thing and abdication of the middle generation is OTL, just in Saxony.
8 This Council of Italy is closer to the modern OTL G7 conferences than a 'parliament'. Somewhere between G7 and OTL's UN. Several players, including Murat and the nationalists, want it to evolve into something stronger. Most of the Princes want to keep it weak. The Pope is a little conflicted. If he got to run the whole thing, he wouldn't mind it stronger, but he's well aware his position is basically as a figurehead for the thing, so on balance he'd just as soon keep it weak. Unless, of course, he can strengthen his own position, etc.
9 Leopold II is another 'different guy, raised in the same family,.in the same circumstances, behaves much the same.'
10 OTL, of course, it was the House of Savoy in the person of Victor Emmanuel, who received the crown of a united Italy. OTL, Charles Albert's waffling wasn't fatal to the dynasty's chances, partly because there was no other good option. Here there is. Or rather are: Murat and the Pope, with a couple of others as dark horses.
11 Sicily is much as OTL, except for the fact that it is confined to Sicily, whereas iOTL Naples had been retaken. Francis is OTL, Ferdinand II is similar to his OTL brother.
