Canada Under the Sainte Lague Proportional Representation method

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The Poarter

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Here are the results of every Canadian federal election if the House of Commons seats were apportioned according to the Sainte-Lague Method of proportional representation. I've been working entirely off data from general Canadian elections and my own idea of what each party votes for, which has in-depth information about the voting in all individual seats.

As the Sainte Lague method, I've decided to put independent candidates together which I apologize for. It simply makes things easier. Nevertheless the parties remain. So after painstaking effort I got everything done. I’m actually surprised. Can you readers comment on what they think would change. How would History be different under these circumstance?

I've put them in reverse order from the present mainly because they're butterfly-proof results. In each case, I suppose you can assume they introduced Sainte-method proportional representation just before that specific election. For simplicities sake I went for after World War 2.

So, here are the results:


2011 (308 Seats)

• Conservatives – 122 Seats
• New Democrats – 95 Seats
• Liberals – 58 Seats
• Bloc Quebecois – 19 Seats
• Green – 12 Seats
• Independents - 1 Seats

Result: New Democrat minority government with confidence and supply from Liberals and Greens. Prime Minister: Jack Layton.

2008 (308 seats)

• Conservatives – 117 Seats
• Liberals – 81 Seats
• New Democratic – 56 Seats
• Bloc Quebecois – 31 Seats
• Greens – 21 Seats
• Independents -2 Seats

Result: Liberal – New Democrat Coalition with Confidence and Supply from the Greens. Prime Minister: Stephane Dion

2006 (308 seats)

• Conservatives – 112 Seats
• Liberals – 93 Seats
• New Democrats -54 Seats
• Bloc Quebecois – 32 Seats
• Greens – 14 Seats
• Independents – 2 Seats
• Christian Heritage – 1 Seat

Result: Liberal-New Democrats- Green grand coalition. Prime Minister: Paul Martin

2004 (308 seats)

• Liberals -114 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives -93 Seats
• New Democratic Party – 49 Seats
• Bloc Quebecois – 38 Seats
• Greens – 13 Seats
• Christian Heritage – 1 Seat
• Independent – 1 Seat

Result: Liberal-New Democratic Coalition. Prime Minister: Paul Martin.

2000 (301 seats)

• Liberals – 124 Seats
• Alliance – 77 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives -37 Seats
• Bloc Quebecois – 33 Seats
• New Democratic – 26 Seats
• Green – 2 Seats
• Marijuana – 2 Seats

Result: Confidence and supply for Liberals supplied by New Democratic, Greens and Marijuana. Prime Minister: Jean Chretien

1997 (301 seats)

• Liberals – 117 Seats
• Reform – 59 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 57 Seats
• New Democratic – 34 Seats
• Bloc Quebecois – 32 Seats
• Green -1 Seat
• Natural Law – 1 Seat

Result: Coalition between Liberals and New Democrats, with confidence and supply with Greens and Natural Law. Result: Prime Minister: Jean Chretien

1993 (295 seats)

• Liberals -119 Seats
• Reform – 56 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 48 Seats
• Bloc Quebecois: 40 Seats
• New Democratic Party: 21 Seats
• National – 4 Seats
• Natural Law – 2 Seats
• Independent – 1 Seat

Result: Undecided. Hold the Election again.

1988 (295 seats)

• Progressive Conservatives – 125 Seats
• Liberals – 95 Seats
• New Democratic Party – 61 Seats
• Reform – 6 Seats
• Christian Heritage – 2 Seats
• Rhinoceros – 1 Seat
• Greens – 1 Seat

Result: Liberal-New Democratic Coalition government: Prime Minister: John Turner

1984 (282 seats)

• Progressive Conservatives – 142 Seats
• Liberals – 80 Seats
• New Democratic Party – 54 Seats
• Rhinoceros – 2 Seats
• Parti nationaliste du Québec – 2 Seats
• Confederation of Regions – 1 Seat
• Independent – 1 Seat

Result: Conservative Majority government. Prime Minister: Brian Mulroney

1980 (282 seats)

• Liberals – 126 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 92 Seats
• New Democratic – 56 Seats
• Social Credit – 5 Seats
• Rhinoceros – 3 Seats

Result: Liberal – New Democratic Coalition Government. Prime Minister: Pierre Trudeau.

1979 (282 seats)

• Liberals – 113 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 102 Seats
• New Democratic Party – 51 Seats
• Social Credit – 13 Seats
• Rhinoceros – 2 Seats
• Independents – 1 Seat

Result: Liberal – New Democratic Coalition. Prime Minister: Pierre Trudeau.

1974 (264 seats)

• Liberals – 114 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 94 Seats
• New Democratic Party - 41 Seats
• Social Credit Party -13 Seats
• Independents – 2 seats

Result: Liberal New Democratic Coalition Government. Prime Minister: Pierre Trudeau.

1972 (264 seats)

• Liberals -101 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 93 Seats
• New Democratic Party – 47 Seats
• Social Credit -20 Seats
• Independents -3 Seats

Result: Liberal-New Democratic Coalition Government. Prime Minister: Pierre Trudeau.

1968 (264 seats)

• Liberals -120 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives -83 Seats
• New Democratic Party - 45 Seats
• Ralliement Creditiste – 12 Seats
• Social Credit – 2 Seats
• Independents – 2 Seats

Result: Liberal-New Democratic Coalition Government. Prime Minister: Pierre Trudeau.

1965 (265 seats)

• Liberals – 107 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 86 Seats
• New Democrats -47 Seats
• Ralliement créditiste -12 Seats
• Social Credit -10 Seats
• Independents -2 Seats

Result: Liberal New Democrats Coalition Goverment. Prime Minister: Lester Pearson.

1963 (265 seats)

• Liberals – 111 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 87 Seats
• New Democrats – 35 Seats
• Social Credit – 32 Seats

Result: Liberal minority government with confidence and supply from New Democrats. Prime Minister: Lester B. Pearson

1962 (265 seats)

• Progressiver Conservatives – 99 Seats
• Liberals – 99 Seats
• New Democrats – 36 Seats
• Social Credit – 31 Seats

Result: Liberal-New Democrats Coalition. Prime Minister: Lester B. Pearson.

1958 (265 seats)

• Progressive Conservatives – 144 Seats
• Liberals – 89 Seats
• Co-operative Commonwealth – 25 Seats
• Social Credit – 7 Seats

Result: Progressive Conservative Majority Government. Prime Minister: John Deifenbaker.

1957 (265 seats)

• Liberals -108 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 103 Seats
• Co-operative Commonwealth -29 Seats
• Social Credit Party – 18 Seats
• Independents – 8 Seats

Result: Liberal Minority government with coalition from Co-operative Commonwealth. Prime Minister: Louis St. Laurent

1953 (265 seats)

• Liberals – 129 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 89 Seats
• Co-operative Commonwealth – 30 Seats
• Social Credit – 14 Seats
• Independents - 6 Seats
• Labor – Progressive – 3 Seats

Result: Liberal Minority government with confidence and supply from Co-operative Commonwealth Party. Prime Minister: Louis St. Laurent

1949 (262 seats)

• Liberals – 130 Seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 78 Seats
• Co-operative Commonwealth – 36 Seats
• Independents – 7 Seats
• Social Credit – 6 Seats
• Liberal-Progressives – 4 Seats
• Union of Electors – 1 Seat

Result: Liberal Minority government with confidence and supply from Co-operative Commonwealth Party. Prime Minister: M.J. Coldwell

1945 (245 seats)

• Canadian Liberal Party – 95 seats
• Progressive Conservatives – 66 Seats
• Co-operative Commonwealth – 39 Seats
• Social Credit – 10 Seats
• Independents – 17 Seats
• Bloc Populaire – 12 Seats
• Labor Progressives – 8 Seats
Result: Liberal Minority Government in coalition with Co-operative Commonwealth and Labor Progressives. Prime Minister: W.L. Mackenzie King.

So how do you think this would change History?
 
Depends on when it was introduced (cause obviously if it's introduced before 1945 it's going to butterfly away all the other elections on this list), but on the face of it, given that the Liberals/NDP almost always have more seats than the Conservatives, I'm guessing the Conservatives would be forced to moderate in order to not only appeal to a larger percentage of the population, but also to make it easier for them to work with the CCF/NDP (which, given that the CCF/NDP wouldn't allow the Liberals to govern forever, would have to happen at some point).

Oh, and I dunno if it's a mistake or not, but I don't think Coldwell would become Prime Minister after the 1949 election.
 

The Poarter

Banned
Depends on when it was introduced (cause obviously if it's introduced before 1945 it's going to butterfly away all the other elections on this list), but on the face of it, given that the Liberals/NDP almost always have more seats than the Conservatives, I'm guessing the Conservatives would be forced to moderate in order to not only appeal to a larger percentage of the population, but also to make it easier for them to work with the CCF/NDP (which, given that the CCF/NDP wouldn't allow the Liberals to govern forever, would have to happen at some point).

Oh, and I dunno if it's a mistake or not, but I don't think Coldwell would become Prime Minister after the 1949 election.

Yeah this is all just a hypothetical situation but it goes to show how different Canadian history would have been under this situation.
 
The Liberals always forming coalitions with the NDP seems pretty unlikely. In many ways, they were ideologically closer to the PCs, so there should be a fair number of LPC-PC coalitions or minority governments.
 

The Poarter

Banned
The Liberals always forming coalitions with the NDP seems pretty unlikely. In many ways, they were ideologically closer to the PCs, so there should be a fair number of LPC-PC coalitions or minority governments.

That's quite true. I'm just basing this on what I know. What do you think would have happened?
 
It's hard to get too specific since it would radically alter the composition of parliament and lead to an entirely different course of history (for instance: a different government in '79 might delay Patriation, leading to a different set of circumstances and negotiations, which could change every succeeding election in a massive way). About all that can be said for certain is that Canada would have a firmly-entrenched multi-party system, with all that typically entails: more minor parties would spring up, historical ones (Social Credit) likely wouldn't fade, mergers (PCs and Reform) wouldn't happen, coalitions would be commonplace and there may even be some grand coalitions depending on how the results go.

Of particular note is the 90s. It looks like a very... interesting time. OTL, the Liberal majorities papered over a lot of the regional divisions of the era, but here it would be on full display. Maybe we'd just get grand coalitions through the decade.

I'm guessing the Conservatives would be forced to moderate in order to not only appeal to a larger percentage of the population, but also to make it easier for them to work with the CCF/NDP (which, given that the CCF/NDP wouldn't allow the Liberals to govern forever, would have to happen at some point).

I'm not sure they'd need to moderate any, pre-'84. Being firmly of the Red Tory persuasion, I imagine the party would be willing to work with the CCF/NDP at times. At the very least I think they would hash out a deal in this alt-'57 (aving been in the wilderness for two decades, and now under a much more progressive platform and populist leader).
 

The Poarter

Banned
It's hard to get too specific since it would radically alter the composition of parliament and lead to an entirely different course of history (for instance: a different government in '79 might delay Patriation, leading to a different set of circumstances and negotiations, which could change every succeeding election in a massive way). About all that can be said for certain is that Canada would have a firmly-entrenched multi-party system, with all that typically entails: more minor parties would spring up, historical ones (Social Credit) likely wouldn't fade, mergers (PCs and Reform) wouldn't happen, coalitions would be commonplace and there may even be some grand coalitions depending on how the results go.

Of particular note is the 90s. It looks like a very... interesting time. OTL, the Liberal majorities papered over a lot of the regional divisions of the era, but here it would be on full display. Maybe we'd just get grand coalitions through the decade.



I'm not sure they'd need to moderate any, pre-'84. Being firmly of the Red Tory persuasion, I imagine the party would be willing to work with the CCF/NDP at times. At the very least I think they would hash out a deal in this alt-'57 (aving been in the wilderness for two decades, and now under a much more progressive platform and populist leader).

Yeah. I'm pretty sure with this system we would have 5 or 6 major parties sharing the power, just like Germany, with lots of fringe parties. Personally our political system would also be much more active and diversified so that's a plus.

I really would have liked to see a Canada under this system. Especially because it would make it impossible for Harper to have come into power.
 
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