Can Yugoslavia Be Preserved Post-Tito?

I've been thinking about doing a Yugo TL when I've run my DDR TL out of steam (don't worry, those reading, it's not quite there yet, just on another creative hiatus). Specifically, one that doesn't see things go to hell--or at least, not nearly as much--as in OTL.

So, first question: assuming Tito dies in 1980 (or no later than '82, as 90 is a damned impressive age for anyone to get to), is there anything he or anyone else can do to ensure that Yugoslavia holds itself together at least til the year 2000?
 
So, first question: assuming Tito dies in 1980 (or no later than '82, as 90 is a damned impressive age for anyone to get to), is there anything he or anyone else can do to ensure that Yugoslavia holds itself together at least til the year 2000?

I do not like to take part in the discussions on Yugoslavia, as I am afraid I may get into an argument on this. However, I will offer my opinion.

Yugoslavia surviving requires POD roughly in 1945-48 at latest. Relationships between nations must be solved to the satisfaction of all involved instead of being constantly swept under the rug with expectation it will all work out in the end through "Brotherhood and Unity". I am afraid without this it is virtually impossible. I am at a loss how this can be achieved though. POD required may even be a lot earlier and involve less radical development of nationalism in the area.

OTL shows that everyone was just waiting for Tito to die to restart the games.
 
Yugoslavia could be saved even in the '80 had the CP of SR of Serbia hadn't been infiltrated by officials willing to use nationalism for their own personal gains. Also puting a stop to the SANU memorandum would go a long way to keep things cool.

But in order to have a functioning multiethnic Yugoslavia you need a PoD in 1917. The situation was salvagable with a 1939 PoD but WW II put a stop to that.
 
Thanks for the replies. I've got some more research to do on this before I state some of my opinions for possible PODs, lest I come off as uninformed or possibly offend someone. The ones I'm thinking of are unlikely anyway I think.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Basically the Kingdom of Yugoslavia have to be more of a panslavic state and less of a Serbian Empire. Much of the animosity and rivalry between Croats, Serbs, Slovenians and Bosniaks had to do with this (of course strengthened by WW2, the Ustasha etc.)
 

abc123

Banned
I do not like to take part in the discussions on Yugoslavia, as I am afraid I may get into an argument on this. However, I will offer my opinion.

Yugoslavia surviving requires POD roughly in 1945-48 at latest. Relationships between nations must be solved to the satisfaction of all involved instead of being constantly swept under the rug with expectation it will all work out in the end through "Brotherhood and Unity". I am afraid without this it is virtually impossible. I am at a loss how this can be achieved though. POD required may even be a lot earlier and involve less radical development of nationalism in the area.

OTL shows that everyone was just waiting for Tito to die to restart the games.



What he said.
 
The first reply is excellent. I would also assume that maybe they would unite based on anti-Slavic sentiment from the west in opposing Yugoslavia, and they would stay united because they feel threatened.
 

Geon

Donor
Yugoslavia and Religion

I would have to agree that you need an earlier POD for Yugoslavia to be multi-ethnic, but I would argue it has to go back further then 1917 to work. The Turkish invasions and the various divisions between Eastern Orthodoxy and Roman Catholicism created a witches' brew of Muslim vs. Orthodox vs. Roman Catholic. This aggravated an already unstable ethinic mix. If you want a multi-ehtnic Yugoslavia you have to do one of the following: Keep Yugoslavia prodimantely Christian or make Yugoslavia predominately Muslim. I know this sounds controversial-and I am NOT Muslim or Christian bashing, it is simply a statement of fact. The Balkan wars of the 90's were unfortunately as much about religion as about anything else with Orthodox Serbs going up against Herzegovinan Muslims. Opposing religions helped heap fuel on the fire. The history of the area has been rife with religious persecution between one of the three sides I mentioned above and it has become part of their nationalistic fervor.
 
What are you talking about, Yugoslavia was overwhelmingly Christian, there was roughly 12% Muslims in Yugoslavia. :confused:
 

Geon

Donor
Corrections

I may be wrong and I fully admit I know little of the ins and outs of Balkan politics but during the Balkan wars in the 90's it seemed that the issue of Orthodox Christian versus Muslim aggravated matters in the wars between Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and what was left of Yugoslavia (predominately Serb and Orthodox). I also recall that during the end of the war the Kosovo region was attacked and persecuted by the Serbs and the Kosovars were predominately Muslim many of their ancestors converted in the Turkish invasions.

I'm not saying religion was the primary motivating force for the violence in Yugoslavia but it was fuel on the fire. In order to remove some of that fuel you need to quiet some of the historic religious disputes in the area.

Geon
 
Don't be so pessimistic the thing is maintainable as long as the leaders of local CP's see they can make more profit by working together than against each other. It will just take a lot of effort and patience.

edit@ or a JNA takeover which uses loyal membeers of each ethnicty to watch over their own members as opposed to "send the to the other republics" doctrine.
 

abc123

Banned
I would say that it is possible to save Yugoslavia post-Tito ( so not ASB ) but on the other hand- not very plausable without liberal dose of hindsightium...
 

Angel Heart

Banned
Believe it or not but the only one who could have saved Yugoslavia was the JNA, even in March 1991. And they could have even done it if they hadn't allowed themselves to be used and abused by Sloba and his asshamsters. Maybe some republics would have left after a referendum but a lot of lives wouldn't have been pointlessly lost like IOTL.
 
It appears to me at least that a lot of the non-Balkan members here are assuming that Tito = SFR Yugoslavia, and that it can't survive after him. But that's not actually true. Like Marko said, the Communist Party was infiltrated by nationalists such as Milosevic and Tudjman. The religion aspect was simply extra fuel, religious tension wasn't particularly high before it was utilised by nationalists, which we could see with the exceptionally high rates of intermarriage between the Yugoslav ethnic groups. 'Brotherhood and Unity' would work better if there wasn't the whole patrilineal ethnic inheritance system, but that can't really be changed.

It would also be far easier for Yugoslavia to keep together if the economy hadn't suffered so much, which requires the Yugoslav government to invest American aid (such as that from their space program) properly, rather than becoming reliant on it. They could even tread water for a while if the Soviets didn't collapse when they did, since it removed America's motivation to continue sending aid to SFRY.
 

abc123

Banned
Believe it or not but the only one who could have saved Yugoslavia was the JNA, even in March 1991. And they could have even done it if they hadn't allowed themselves to be used and abused by Sloba and his asshamsters. Maybe some republics would have left after a referendum but a lot of lives wouldn't have been pointlessly lost like IOTL.

I fully agree.
That's the reason why I said that it's unplausible, but not ASB.
It is possible, but not very likely...
 
Don't be so pessimistic the thing is maintainable as long as the leaders of local CP's see they can make more profit by working together than against each other. It will just take a lot of effort and patience.

edit@ or a JNA takeover which uses loyal membeers of each ethnicty to watch over their own members as opposed to "send the to the other republics" doctrine.

It appears to me at least that a lot of the non-Balkan members here are assuming that Tito = SFR Yugoslavia, and that it can't survive after him. But that's not actually true. Like Marko said, the Communist Party was infiltrated by nationalists such as Milosevic and Tudjman. The religion aspect was simply extra fuel, religious tension wasn't particularly high before it was utilised by nationalists, which we could see with the exceptionally high rates of intermarriage between the Yugoslav ethnic groups. 'Brotherhood and Unity' would work better if there wasn't the whole patrilineal ethnic inheritance system, but that can't really be changed.

It would also be far easier for Yugoslavia to keep together if the economy hadn't suffered so much, which requires the Yugoslav government to invest American aid (such as that from their space program) properly, rather than becoming reliant on it. They could even tread water for a while if the Soviets didn't collapse when they did, since it removed America's motivation to continue sending aid to SFRY.

Yes, in this thread on pages 1 and 2 I had posted similar opinions. Basically I think the best way with a post-1945 POD for Yugoslavia to survive would be for the 1974 constitution to not be adopted. However even with the adoption of the 1974 constitution and without the JNA stepping in, the mid-1980s seemed like a key moment when Yugoslavia could have continued onwards to the present day (perhaps with some still slightly troubled relations between the various groups), especially if the USSR was still seen as a powerful adversary by the West (had it reformed under Andropov had Andropov lived a few more years) and not one that was becoming less of a threat due to Gorbachev (thus the West would be more inclined to continue giving aid to Yugoslavia without the harsh and crazy conditions of the OTL 1980s-1990s).
 
I am looking at the map of your solution in that other topic and I can tell you 100% that none of the ethnic groups involved would sign such a constitution unless held at a gun point.

Your first mistake in Croatia was that you based the border of the Krajina and Western Slavonia on winter 1991/1992 war front line rather than ethnic, geographic and economic factors. The second mistake is Bosnia proper as you call it. It would contain roughy 2/3 of all Croats living in BiH and roughly 1/4 of all Serbs prior to the 1992 war.

The solution to saving Yugoslavia is not segregation since that breeds only further divisions and due to the coplexity of popualtion placement will leave no one happy, but celebration of diferences. The communists made a huge mistake in supressing nationalist feelings. To win the people of Yugoslavia to the idea of Yugoslavia is to support each group in their specific language, culture, customs and expresing of their national feelings and then unite all of those different things under an idea of Yugoslavianism that would be similar to the idea Britishnes.

The second Yugoslavia mostly failed in the eyes of its people because proclaiming you were a Croat, Serb, Montenegrin nationalist (which most people down here are) made you an enemy of the state since nationalism rather than lunacy of people in power was blamed for the horrors of WW II.
 
I am looking at the map of your solution in that other topic and I can tell you 100% that none of the ethnic groups involved would sign such a constitution unless held at a gun point.

I wouldn't go so far as that. And read through the thread. Someone posted me a link to a better map of Bosnia's ethnic makeup by district which is what I would have used had found it before drawing the map.

I also doubt the ethnic groups involved would have had a choice really if in 1984 all the republics involved agreed to it. As I noted in the thread, the entire idea is based off a compromise - more autonomy for the republics politically in exchange for local autonomy within the republics. At the time in 1984 for Bosnia and Croatia it would have looked like a good deal anyway - Serbs and Croats in Bosnia get autonomous provinces and Serbs in Croatia get autonomous provinces which are NOT like Kosovo and Vojvodina as they cannot veto republic legislation while they as republics get more autonomy, thus ensuring they don't feel threatened by any potential Serbian domination as a result of a one man, one vote system within the communist party.

Your first mistake in Croatia was that you based the border of the Krajina and Western Slavonia on winter 1991/1992 war front line rather than ethnic, geographic and economic factors.

Yeah, at the time of drawing the map I didn't have anything else on hand. It was meant to be a rough approximation in any event.

The second mistake is Bosnia proper as you call it. It would contain roughy 2/3 of all Croats living in BiH and roughly 1/4 of all Serbs prior to the 1992 war.

So what? Vojvodina had over 50% of it's population being Serb in 1974 when it gained substantial autonomy. There is nothing written down anywhere that says 100% of an ethnic group must be located in a designated area. The whole point of autonomous areas in a lot of cases is to give autonomy to a group where they can be found to be in a majority locally. If Ireland were still a part of the United Kingdom now and was given autonomy the fact that there would be more Irishmen (and -women) living in the rest of the United Kingdom (perhaps as much as 60% of the Irish in the British Isles) rather than in the area that is now the Republic of Ireland doesn't make it a mistake for that area of Ireland to have been given autonomy under any circumstances.

If 1/3 of the Croats in Bosnia can be roughly found to be in a majority in a number of contiguous districts, why shouldn't those districts simply be given autonomy just because the other 2/3 of the Croats in Bosnia happened to be to found scattered across the rest of Bosnia and to be in the minority locally in the other places?


The solution to saving Yugoslavia is not segregation since that breeds only further divisions

I would have to disagree.

There are two solutions - complete centralization and the abolition of republics with a simple one man, one vote system OR providing complete autonomy.

What happened after 1974 seems to have been an incomplete autonomy process which moved Yugoslavia from a fairly stable (if not harmonious) model of six equally autonomous republics to an unstable (and definitely not harmonious) model of six supposedly equal autonomous republics as well as 2 autonomous provinces which (it seems) could veto the legislation of the republic they were located in. No matter how anyone wants to present it, the obvious perception (note, I refer to the perception, which may or may not have been what actually happened) is that this was all aimed at weaken one republic in particular (the autonomous republics were located in only one republic and seemed capable of vetoing that republic's legislation). That was never going to be stable and was just begging for trouble. Remove that perception and it could go a long way to pulling the rug out from under nationalists in Serbia.

Also it isn't segregation if you base the autonomy on existing populations. Having autonomous provinces doesn't mean that Serbs wouldn't be allowed to live in say an autonomous provinces of Bosanska Posavina or that Croats and Macedonians wouldn't be allowed to live in Vojvodina.


The communists made a huge mistake in supressing nationalist feelings. To win the people of Yugoslavia to the idea of Yugoslavia is to support each group in their specific language, culture, customs and expresing of their national feelings

Which is exactly what autonomous areas allow for. With regards to language in particular, most autonomous areas in most countries are able to determine which language or languages they want to use in addition to the official, national language.

and then unite all of those different things under an idea of Yugoslavianism that would be similar to the idea Britishnes.


And in Britain there has been autonomy in Northern Ireland on and off since the 1920s and proposals for Scottish autonomy from 1913 (when a Scottish home rule bill was introduced). Also note that the very same Britain presided over an empire in which it gave more and more autonomy to its colonies as time went by. And today the UK has (mostly) allowed autonomy to the areas within the country that actually want it (Scotland, Northern Ireland, London (with it's assembly introduced as part of a plan for regional assemblies in England) and Wales). Some areas did not want it (North East England), but some areas have yet to be asked (North West England and Yorkshire & Humber).

The second Yugoslavia mostly failed in the eyes of its people because proclaiming you were a Croat, Serb, Montenegrin nationalist (which most people down here are) made you an enemy of the state since nationalism rather than lunacy of people in power was blamed for the horrors of WW II.

True. But denying autonomy to areas with local Croat, Serb and Bosniak majorities would be basically doing the same thing as how many Croat or Serb nationalists are going to agree with the idea of denying such local autonomy to their kinsfolk? I can't see how Yugoslavia can hold together on the idea of not having autonomous provinces in Bosnia and Croatia when such an idea (denying local autonomy) would provide an excellent claimed grievance for various politicians campaigning on a nationalist platform.

If one takes a look on other areas of the world we can see examples where providing autonomy works and where conversely taking it away (or denying it) leads to trouble. So in Sudan the first civil war from 1955-1972 was fought because Sudan denied autonomy to the south. The second civil war from 1983 onward was a result of Sudan taking away the autonomy it had granted the south in 1972. Had Sudan not done this in 1983 there was a much greater possibility that South Sudan would still be a part of Sudan today (although an autonomous part). In Eritrea a rebel group attacked Ethiopian police and soldiers in 1961, but the 1962 decision to directly annex Ethiopia only gave those rebels more support and ensured that when the rebellion got into full swing that Ethiopia would have little chance of winning the population over to it's side. Likewise in Nicaragua the agreement to granting autonomy to the coastal areas helped to quell an uprising by its inhabitants (which was part of the wider Nicaraguan Civil War).
 

ingemann

Banned
A solution could be that Tito dies earlier maybe in 1960 or 1970, this ensure that the vacuum after his death aren't filled up by nationalists, as Communism aren't seen as moribund yet. If someone reform minded get power at this early time, maybe we could see Yugoslavia move toward democracy and replace communism with social democratism, and maybe a membership of EEC together with Greece in 1986. This woud likely keep Yugoslavia so stable that the states drop their attempts at seccession.
 
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