Can the USSR survive with Gorbachev?

I think you need a POD way before Gorbachov. You'd need to start introducing Chinese-style reforms in the in 70s, I think, to have a shot at pulling it off. And that's not going to happen with the leadership at the time.
 
Not unless you can somehow make nationalism in the various republics disappear, which is quite difficult considering that it was Gorbachev's reforms which engendered it.
 
Yeah you need to prevent Brezhnev coming to power for a start and also have Krushchev not have his wilder schemes such as the Virgin Lands Campaign. If Kosygin still comes to power and he is allowed to implement his reforms then the stagnation of the 1970's and the eventual implosion can be at least delayed. What will also really help is an end to the arms race in the 1960's and no Afghan adventure then the level of military spending will be much lower resulting in more funds for modernisation.
 
If you butterfly away the Coup you could end up with a rump USSR per the New Union Treaty.
I think that would break up not long afterwards. It'd only have Russia, the Ukraine, Byelorussia, Azerbaijan (maybe), and Central Asia. If the Union army doesn't clearly side with Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia then the former has no reason to remain within the Union. Then you have Russian, Ukrainian and Byelorussian nationalisms which will blame each other for the Union's ills as the economy declines.

Seeing what was happening in the former Yugoslavia, I think Gorbachev and Co. would concede that the Union could only be held together (if at that) by military force and would agree to let the constituent republics depart peacefully.
 
I agree partly with Ismailov, when its all said and done the "new" Soviet Union would likely contain Russia, Central Asia, Belarus (Maybe), and Azerbaijan (The SU supported them OTL, it should continue ATL without a breakup). However the key issue is the economy and the rump USSR should be able to stick together out of necessity (the central asias would have a hard time standing on their own as per OTL).Gorbachev is likely going to be kicked out either way, but if he can get a more level headed leader like Nikolai Ryzhkov to take over its a game changer (Anyone but Yeltsin is a game changer). So in short can it survive as a somewhat powerful country, yes in time like Russia OTL, but can it survive as a super or even great power, no probably not without an earlier POD.

For an earlier POD a good one that ive been too lazy to try and pull off is the Brezhnev assassination attempt on 22 January 1969. This is right before the era of stagnation and could with a butterfly or two put Alexei Kosygin in charge. The difficult part is having Kosygin tred lightly as to not get himself ousted like Khrushchev. If all goes well Kostgin might be able to avoid the Era of Stagnation all together making the USSR stronger economically (which was a main problem in its breakup)
 
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For anyone interested in what the rump 'Sovereign Union' would look like, a link to a post in the Map Thread...

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=7071799&postcount=5837


Looks about right, but as long as the map is including some of the more wayward republics (Ukraine, Azerbaijan) wouldn't the USS take South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well? (those are disputed regions in Georgia OTL). Also in the original treaty the country was called the Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics to preserve "Soviet Union" and "USSR" if the new union works out as well as it does on the map they might just keep that name.
 
If you butterfly away the Coup you could end up with a rump USSR per the New Union Treaty. There is a somewhat ASB timeline about that currently running.

The Timeline --> http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/New_Union
New Union Treaty --> http://en.wikipedia.or/wiki/Union_of_Sovereign_States

Yeah I saw that, it was interesting, but ASB, as you said, and overly optimistic.

So in other words, the general consensus? Go turn the time machine back to circa the 1960's and do something with Brezhnev...
 
Yeah I saw that, it was interesting, but ASB, as you said, and overly optimistic.

So in other words, the general consensus? Go turn the time machine back to circa the 1960's and do something with Brezhnev...

Yep that assassination attempt is right before the era of stagnation so its a good choice, but regardless of what POD you end up going with the 70's need to be changed in the USSR.
 

Archibald

Banned
Yes it can. The issue is the Yeltsin - Gorbachev relation after 1987.
In November 1987 Gorbachev and the Politburo humiliated Yeltsin in such a way that he atempted his life, only to be dragged out of the hospital and humiliated again, then sacked out of the Politburo (!)

Yeltsin was extremely pissed off (how surprising !) and rather politically dead. Because he was out of the Politburo he played Russia against Gorbachev USSR. The antagonism led to USSR breakup after the putsch.

Have Gorbachev NOT treat Yeltsin like an underdog late 1987 and Russia will remain under control; then USSR may survive through the union treaty...
 
Yes it can. The issue is the Yeltsin - Gorbachev relation after 1987.
In November 1987 Gorbachev and the Politburo humiliated Yeltsin in such a way that he atempted his life, only to be dragged out of the hospital and humiliated again, then sacked out of the Politburo (!)

Yeltsin was extremely pissed off (how surprising !) and rather politically dead. Because he was out of the Politburo he played Russia against Gorbachev USSR. The antagonism led to USSR breakup after the putsch.

Have Gorbachev NOT treat Yeltsin like an underdog late 1987 and Russia will remain under control; then USSR may survive through the union treaty...

Or if he had him sent to Siberia, Gorbachev did say he wish he had. That would solve a problem or two, but the issue of the coup and the fact that it was a real turning point for republics that did still wanted to be in the union (Central Asia's, Belarus Azerbaijan) etc. If we take out Yeltsin we would probably have a stronger Russian Federation but unfortunately no soviet union.
 

Archibald

Banned
Very interesting points - notably the part about the coup as a turning point.
The said coup was pretty much unavoidable. The more I dig into it (and I'm doing some intensive research these days), the more I understand how the KGB was dangerous.

Kryuchkov was a truly formidable foe - worse, Gorbachev had total confidence in him until August 21, 1991. He was very much Andropov posthumous (and poisoned) legacy to Gorbachev.

What I just can't understand is why Kryuchkov (the head of KGB) waited until August 1991 to act. He could have toppled Gorbachev from day one - from September 1988.

The million dollar question is: what would be the consequences of an earlier KGB coup held long before 1991 ?
 
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