Is there any way that the Soviet Union can survive (and still remain a somewhat powerful country) without getting rid of Gorbachev and his reforms?
I think that would break up not long afterwards. It'd only have Russia, the Ukraine, Byelorussia, Azerbaijan (maybe), and Central Asia. If the Union army doesn't clearly side with Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia then the former has no reason to remain within the Union. Then you have Russian, Ukrainian and Byelorussian nationalisms which will blame each other for the Union's ills as the economy declines.If you butterfly away the Coup you could end up with a rump USSR per the New Union Treaty.
If you butterfly away the Coup you could end up with a rump USSR per the New Union Treaty. There is a somewhat ASB timeline about that currently running.
The Timeline --> http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/New_Union
New Union Treaty --> http://en.wikipedia.or/wiki/Union_of_Sovereign_States
If Kosygin still comes to power and he is allowed to implement his reforms then the stagnation of the 1970's and the eventual implosion can be at least delayed.
For anyone interested in what the rump 'Sovereign Union' would look like, a link to a post in the Map Thread...
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=7071799&postcount=5837
If you butterfly away the Coup you could end up with a rump USSR per the New Union Treaty. There is a somewhat ASB timeline about that currently running.
The Timeline --> http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/New_Union
New Union Treaty --> http://en.wikipedia.or/wiki/Union_of_Sovereign_States
Yeah I saw that, it was interesting, but ASB, as you said, and overly optimistic.
So in other words, the general consensus? Go turn the time machine back to circa the 1960's and do something with Brezhnev...
Yep that assassination attempt is right before the era of stagnation so its a good choice, but regardless of what POD you end up going with the 70's need to be changed in the USSR.
Yes it can. The issue is the Yeltsin - Gorbachev relation after 1987.
In November 1987 Gorbachev and the Politburo humiliated Yeltsin in such a way that he atempted his life, only to be dragged out of the hospital and humiliated again, then sacked out of the Politburo (!)
Yeltsin was extremely pissed off (how surprising !) and rather politically dead. Because he was out of the Politburo he played Russia against Gorbachev USSR. The antagonism led to USSR breakup after the putsch.
Have Gorbachev NOT treat Yeltsin like an underdog late 1987 and Russia will remain under control; then USSR may survive through the union treaty...