Can the Russians reach Berlin without Lend-Lease?

Can the Russians beat Germany?


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If the rest is equal - USA enters the war, and second front, then yes they probably can.
But the price they pay is going to be higher.

Exactly. They probably can, but the resources are going to have to come from somewhere which means that they're going to have to give things up later on, maybe really big things like spaceflight or the Warsaw Pact.
 

Deleted member 1487

Exactly. They probably can, but the resources are going to have to come from somewhere which means that they're going to have to give things up later on, maybe really big things like spaceflight or the Warsaw Pact.
How can they borrow from the future? They have the resources at hand only and they cannot make most of what they are losing themselves. The big value of LL was that it contributed what the Soviets couldn't produce internally and needed external sources of. Plus if they go into famine they are going to be in serious trouble, because you cannot win a war without soldiers or labor making weapons. If they take soldiers and horses to make food they are then stripping the front lines of men and logistics that they were already losing at a huge rate in 1943-45 anyway and got them to the bottom of the barrel by Berlin IOTL; cut those numbers down early they burn out far more quickly short of Poland, let alone Berlin.
 
How can they borrow from the future? They have the resources at hand only and they cannot make most of what they are losing themselves. The big value of LL was that it contributed what the Soviets couldn't produce internally and needed external sources of. Plus if they go into famine they are going to be in serious trouble, because you cannot win a war without soldiers or labor making weapons. If they take soldiers and horses to make food they are then stripping the front lines of men and logistics that they were already losing at a huge rate in 1943-45 anyway and got them to the bottom of the barrel by Berlin IOTL; cut those numbers down early they burn out far more quickly short of Poland, let alone Berlin.

Well, they don't know that they're borrowing from the future do they, and they were always quick to go for the short term tactical propaganda over the long term strategic success. Just compare the Russian and American space programs to see examples of that. They would have seen the value of being able to say that they rolled back the Germans from the gates of Moscow and Stalingrad all the way back to the gates of Berlin, and that they did it without outside assistance, but those resources are going to have to going to have to come from somewhere, which means that there are OTL war projects that don't get developed. It means that the Soviets suffer from a much bigger manpower depletion after the war. So let's say the Americans offer Lend-Lease to the Soviets, but add unpalatable conditions, whatever those might be, so the Russians say no, thinking, "screw them, we can beat the Germans on our own," not realizing that the implications of going it alone might be long term and VERY crippling.
 

Deleted member 1487

Well, they don't know that they're borrowing from the future do they, and they were always quick to go for the short term tactical propaganda over the long term strategic success. Just compare the Russian and American space programs to see examples of that.
They would have seen the value of being able to say that they rolled back the Germans from the gates of Moscow and Stalingrad all the way back to the gates of Berlin, and that they did it without outside assistance, but those resources are going to have to going to have to come from somewhere, which means that there are OTL war projects that don't get developed.
Like what exactly? The Soviet space program came from their less expensive success and capture of major Central European scientific and industrial centers, plus German scientists. The rest of the Soviet economy is a fully leverages zero-sum game, so they cannot simply cut something to replace LL, they cut everything and don't get anywhere, starve more, and end up way East, much weakened from OTL postwar due to greater deaths and no looting in Central Europe or Warsaw Pact bloc to help them.

It means that the Soviets suffer from a much bigger manpower depletion after the war. So let's say the Americans offer Lend-Lease to the Soviets, but add unpalatable conditions, whatever those might be, so the Russians say no, thinking, "screw them, we can beat the Germans on our own," not realizing that the implications of going it alone might be long term and VERY crippling.
They're going to suffer much more serious population depletion during the war and the war effort will suffer as a result; my point is not just that the Soviets don't get to Berlin, but that the Wallies have to grind forward to meet them in Poland or even the 1941 border and have to end up doing most of the hard work as the Soviets don't recover in 1942 the same way and fall into famine, taking their society to the brink of collapse in 1943 and 1944. No LL for the Soviets is better post-war for the Wallies, but much worse during the war because it means the Wallies need to bleed to make up for the Soviet weakness and potential collapse.
 
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