Would it be possible for the Ottoman Empire to collapse before WWI would occur? What’s the earliest time it could happen? How would the empire be divided up? And how does this impact Germany and Austria-Hungary’s ability to perform during WWI?
Can the Ottoman Empire Collapse Before WWI
- Thread starter TickTock The Witch's Dead
- Start date
They lose the crusade of Varna and Sultan Murad the II is killed in battle. The succession crisis combined with the massive material and moral loss of its European territories leads to its fellow Anatolian Sultanates carving the Ottomans up along with a few of the more independent minded local leaders. This would of course completely butterfly WW1...
Alternatively have the Bosnian Crisis of 1908 blows up after the new Young Turk government decides that a victorious war would be great way to shore up popular support/they believe they'll be done for if they give up the territory without a shot. The Russians are very likely to join in at that point to seize the opportunity to dismantle their hated rival and gain control of the straits, at which point Germany might declare war on Austria Hungary and Russia (and even if not directly than still for all intents and purposes France), starting a WW1esque situation that the Germans are very unlikely to succeed in even with British support. They could also stay neutral which could butterfly WW1 entirely as Austria Hungary and Russia are friends again, Britain will never make an alliance with Russia now and Germany by choosing not to intervene will only find their prospects worse as Russia continues to develop.
Alternatively have the Bosnian Crisis of 1908 blows up after the new Young Turk government decides that a victorious war would be great way to shore up popular support/they believe they'll be done for if they give up the territory without a shot. The Russians are very likely to join in at that point to seize the opportunity to dismantle their hated rival and gain control of the straits, at which point Germany might declare war on Austria Hungary and Russia (and even if not directly than still for all intents and purposes France), starting a WW1esque situation that the Germans are very unlikely to succeed in even with British support. They could also stay neutral which could butterfly WW1 entirely as Austria Hungary and Russia are friends again, Britain will never make an alliance with Russia now and Germany by choosing not to intervene will only find their prospects worse as Russia continues to develop.
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This is “After 1900” BTW.
Also why would Germany go after Russia if it doesn’t have any form of support like Britain?
1: The Varna thing was a joke based on your phrasing of when the “earliest” time it could collapse.
2a:I implied in my response that Britain would support Germany (that the Germans would be “very unlikely to succeed in (the war) even with British support”
2b: The Germans wanted war with Russia as soon as possible at the time due to Russia’s rapid industrialization and fears that while they may be able to win a war today, in 10 years they won’t have a chance. In this climate it is possible they could go for it after feeling “robbed” of their main ally and fearing encirclement (France + Russia + Austria Hungary)
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
1909 countercoup results in Civil War. Everything West of Drama/Kavalla is lost for any given reason (declaration of war by Balkan League). Arab provinces are depending on the Arab officers and governors there. They are either loyal to the curre t government or they break apart when they think it is right to do so. Eastern Anatolia is a bloodbath.
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Germaniac
Donor
I like the idea of a civil war during the counter coup. There was definitely a divide between the modestly modernizing Rumelia and Western Anatolia vs the Anatolian interior and the Arab lands.
The early Young turks co-opted the Arab deputies for a time, and for the most part backed the Constitutionalist but that could change with some mistakes on the CUPs part.
If it does devolve to a civil war this is not the time for the Great War to break out, at least not over the internal conflict in the empire. In 1909 Great Britain was still very much determined to block the Russians at the straights. The Russians were just beaten by Japan badly and had nearly collapsed the regime in revolution. Russia cannot act without firm backing from britain and france and promises of neutrality from germany and austria. While Germany was ambivalent on Russia's ambitions there (the early CUP was very much angling for British and not German support) they aren't going to war over it. France will back Britain, but would favor whichever side upheld the OPDA, French Banks holding the vast majority of the empires debts.
Austria and Serbia are wildcards. Both want the Novi Pazar region, Serbia to form a common border with Montenegro and Austria to control the corridor to Salonika. If either make a move the other will be forced into action.
The early Young turks co-opted the Arab deputies for a time, and for the most part backed the Constitutionalist but that could change with some mistakes on the CUPs part.
If it does devolve to a civil war this is not the time for the Great War to break out, at least not over the internal conflict in the empire. In 1909 Great Britain was still very much determined to block the Russians at the straights. The Russians were just beaten by Japan badly and had nearly collapsed the regime in revolution. Russia cannot act without firm backing from britain and france and promises of neutrality from germany and austria. While Germany was ambivalent on Russia's ambitions there (the early CUP was very much angling for British and not German support) they aren't going to war over it. France will back Britain, but would favor whichever side upheld the OPDA, French Banks holding the vast majority of the empires debts.
Austria and Serbia are wildcards. Both want the Novi Pazar region, Serbia to form a common border with Montenegro and Austria to control the corridor to Salonika. If either make a move the other will be forced into action.
Oh ok couldn't tell.
Also, that is an interesting scenario you have.
That's also an interesting scenario. I can imagine the British and French would support the Arabs and the Russians would support the Balkan factions (non-Muslims) and Christian Anatolian factions.
I can imagine that the Arab factions would use this as an excuse for independence. Russia could go for eastern Anatolia if it meant that it wouldn't elicit a strong reaction from other Western powers.
BigBlueBox
Banned
Why Eastern Anatolia? Are you implying that something akin to the Armenian Genocide would happen, or the Kurds would revolt?
Kaze
Banned
It was already collapsing -- That is how it lost control of the Balkans to Austria-Hungry and to local nationalism. It was just a matter of time.
As for an early Arab revolt bring the house of cards down... I think not. The British holding Suez would take one look at the Arabs and help the Ottomans to ensure continued control of Suez. The only way they might back the Arabs is if they were given colonies in the region.
As for an early Arab revolt bring the house of cards down... I think not. The British holding Suez would take one look at the Arabs and help the Ottomans to ensure continued control of Suez. The only way they might back the Arabs is if they were given colonies in the region.
Or what if the British help the Arabs get freed just as an excuse to expand their sphere of influence?
Before the Italo-Ottoman War and First Balkan War the Arab nationalism was focused on improving their lot within the empire, not breaking away.
The way the "Arab street" in Aleppo, Beirut, Damascus, Jerusalem and Baghdad greeted the news of continued resistance with against the Western powers in Anatolia after the Ottoman collapse with public celebrations tells a lot about the nature of the OTL Arab revolt and the mood of the commoners in areas of modern-day Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordania.
The way the "Arab street" in Aleppo, Beirut, Damascus, Jerusalem and Baghdad greeted the news of continued resistance with against the Western powers in Anatolia after the Ottoman collapse with public celebrations tells a lot about the nature of the OTL Arab revolt and the mood of the commoners in areas of modern-day Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordania.
Arguably it already was collapsing. All but a sliver of Europe was gone, North Africa was long gone and the Arab Revolt was brewing. The Gulf states were under British Control and Kuwait was shaved off from Mesopotamia as a British protectorate.
Had the Arab commanders got the independent state they wanted then maybe things would’ve been different.
I meant before WWI. Like everyone ganging up on the Ottomans.
You mean like they'd been doing throughout the 19th century?
That's a huge amount of territory lost. The Ottomans were left with Turkey and mostly worthless dessert, and their hold on that was shaky.
You mean like they'd been doing throughout the 19th century?
That's a huge amount of territory lost. The Ottomans were left with Turkey and mostly worthless dessert, and their hold on that was shaky.
Yeah like that. Also, Iraq, Syria, and Palestine are far from worthless desert BTW.
Like I imagine that the British would fun Arab rebels, Russians fund Greeks and Armenians, and France funds the Kurds.