Ok how about this for a best case Japan:
The Japanese are repulsed by U.S. marines invading Midway island itself but keep their carrier strike force intact.
The Japanese learn the correct lessons from this and don't try to push any further out but try to fortify what they have.
The U.S doesn't have the margin of superiority in carriers to try anything until late 1943 with the arrival of the Essex class carriers.
Japanese never commit their fleet, keeping it "in being", hoping the U.S. attrition themselves on the fortified ring and hoping the Americans eventually tire of this.
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Meanwhile in Europe, events happen that make the upcoming cold war much colder sooner. Perhaps the war goes differently so the Polish national uprising gets crushed by the Soviets and not the Germans, or the Soviet get a communist govermnent installed in Athens or overrun Denmark and install a communist government there.
So its July 1945 and wanting to shut down the Pacific war to prepare for the potential upcoming war with the Soviets. The U.S and Japan agree to a "conditional" surrender right when the U.S was close enough to start its bombing offensive against Japan, but before USSR can get in the conflict.
Terms are: Japan has to revert to 1913 boundries (U.S. keeps all the mandate islands taken from ther Germans in 1914 but Japan keeps Taiwan, Korea and the Kuriles). Japan will surrender its Navy and air force and submit to a U.S occupation of Tokyo until a democratically elected government can be installed. War criminals will be handed over and tried.
The Japanese are repulsed by U.S. marines invading Midway island itself but keep their carrier strike force intact.
The Japanese learn the correct lessons from this and don't try to push any further out but try to fortify what they have.
The U.S doesn't have the margin of superiority in carriers to try anything until late 1943 with the arrival of the Essex class carriers.
Japanese never commit their fleet, keeping it "in being", hoping the U.S. attrition themselves on the fortified ring and hoping the Americans eventually tire of this.
---------------------------------------------
Meanwhile in Europe, events happen that make the upcoming cold war much colder sooner. Perhaps the war goes differently so the Polish national uprising gets crushed by the Soviets and not the Germans, or the Soviet get a communist govermnent installed in Athens or overrun Denmark and install a communist government there.
So its July 1945 and wanting to shut down the Pacific war to prepare for the potential upcoming war with the Soviets. The U.S and Japan agree to a "conditional" surrender right when the U.S was close enough to start its bombing offensive against Japan, but before USSR can get in the conflict.
Terms are: Japan has to revert to 1913 boundries (U.S. keeps all the mandate islands taken from ther Germans in 1914 but Japan keeps Taiwan, Korea and the Kuriles). Japan will surrender its Navy and air force and submit to a U.S occupation of Tokyo until a democratically elected government can be installed. War criminals will be handed over and tried.