For the Zentrum to oppose Hitler you need a much earlier POD than 1933. Under Ludwig Kaas, party chairman since 1928, Zentrum had been steadily drifting towards the authoritarian right. Zentrum supported Brüning’s anti-democratic government and Kaas had been advocating for an authoritarian transformation of the Weimar since 1932 at the latest. There is little indication that a majority within Zentrum was potentially persuadable to oppose Hitler at this point in time.
To get the Zentrum to oppose Hitler you IMO need a POD in 1928 and get the Zentrum to elect another party chairman: maybe Kaas doesn’t stand for election and either
Joseph Joos or
Adam Stegerwald is elected as party chairman. Joos would definitely oppose Hitler and the Nazis and while Stegerwald was involved in coalition talks with Hitler in early 1933, he also advocated voting against the Enabling Act. IMO even with a different party chairman elected in 1928 you could still get roughly the same March 1933 situation as IOTL:
- Zentrum wasn’t the reason for
Müller’s Grand Coalition to fall in March 1930
- even under a different party chairman Zentrum will likely support Brüning (otherwise he risks permanently alienating the party’s right wing and splitting the party), though Brüning may have to make some concessions if the Left is stronger within Zentrum, like a less strict austerity policy and Brüning cannot move as strongly towards the right as he did IOTL after October 1931
- Zentrum had zero influence on von Papen’s government and little, if any, influence on the decision to make Hitler chancellor
That isn’t to say that a different Zentrum party chairman couldn’t significantly change things between 1930 and 1933 (for example if Brüning moves towards the right after October 1931, Zentrum withdraws it support and Brüning falls in October/November 1931 to a no confidence motion and is succeeded by someone different than von Papen, some just as right-wing authoritarian, but more politically adept and who works hand in hand with Schleicher and Hindenburg to build a right-wing conservative authoritarian Germany without Hitler), but it is also very much possibly that this doesn’t change much.
IOTL the Nazis guaranteed passage of the Enabling Act through a trick of parliamentary procedure: two thirds of MPs had to be present for the vote, however in order to to make sure that SPD MPs and other MPs privately opposed to the bill couldn’t simply boycott the vote and thus deprive the Reichstag of a quorum (SPD and KPD had 201 MP’s together, it would have only 15 or 16 MP’s boycotting the vote to prevent a quorum) all MP’s not officially excused were counted as present (including all KPD MP’s as being arrested didn’t count as ‘officially excused’) plus to thirds of the present MP’s had to vote for the bill.
If Hitler sees Zentrum as an enemy who will oppose him, he will change his strategy and try to push through the Enabling Act another way. Formally expelling all KPD MP’s from the Reichstag before the vote (Hindenburg wouldn’t have a problem authorizing it), would reduce the Reichstag to 566 and Hitler would only need to peel away a couple of right-wing Zentrum MP’s to get his quorum and the needed majority to pass the bill (assuming the composition of the Reichstag stays the same, which isn’t a given).
If somehow SPD and Zentrum manage to hold ranks and inspire a couple of other MPs to vote against the bill (perhaps some
BVP MP’s or the liberals of the
DStP join them) and Hitler is unable to push through the Enabling Act for the moment), it is still unlikely that this would prevent the Nazis from turning Germany into a one-party dictatorship:
- Hitler’s already had been given almost dictatorial powers by the
Reichstag Fire Decree
- Hindenburg still supports Hitler and since he didn’t do anything to prevent Hitler form using dictatorial powers IOTL after making him chancellor he is unlikely to do so IATL
- the NSDAP-DNVP coalition holds a stable majority in the Reichstag after the March 1933 elections (even more stable if the KPD MP’s were to legally be excluded from the Reichstag) and Hugenberg isn’t leaving the coalition, so there won’t be any new elections
- Hitler still has the support of the Reichswehr and conservative elites
- Hitler knows that he merely has to be patient and continue chipping away at the constitution (if he can arrest KPD MPs, he can also arrest SPD MP’s after manufacturing a pretext) and if all else fails he simply has to wait for Hindenburg to die and succeed him as president and permanently dissolve the Reichstag by decree; no reason for Hitler do act rashly or even contemplate a coup by the SA
Still, Zentrum opposing the Nazis would mean that the Nazi dictatorship would unfold differently:
- if the Enabling Act fails, Hitler has to appease his right-wing coalition partner a bit more and longer than IOTL in order to keep the DNVP onboard until Hitler, but as the DNVP shared Hitler’s hostility to democracy and rule of law, this won’t change too much, especially as Hugenberg is totally outclassed politically by Hitler
- the Nazi dictatorship will appear to be less stable and less absolute in the beginning
- Zentrum will be counted among the Nazi’s foremost enemies, which will make relations with the Catholic Church more complicated: even if Hitler still negotiates the Reichskonkordat and promises to reduce the pressure on Zentrum’s members and Catholic politicians in general (the Nazis will exclude leading Zentrum’s politicians from that promise and won’t be restricted too much by it in general), there will be more hostility within the German Catholic Church towards Nazism than IOTL, not necessarily open resistance but less support for the regime plus more Catholic politicians gravitating towards resisting Hitler
This could have fascinating consequences for West Germany after 1945: the German Catholic Germany is seen as resisting Hitler compared to the Protestant Churches and this might prevent the formation of the CDU/CSU (Catholic politicians having no reason to ally with the Hitler-supporting protestant politicians and Zentrum likely surviving in exile while being persecuted in Germany), also Adenauer was arrested IOTL in 1934 for two days, here he is likely permanently arrested and possibly killed or dies in a KZ or forced to flee into exile. West Germany without Adenauer or with an Adenauer returning from exile and stridently opposing those who persecuted him and his fellow Zentrum members, would make for a very different West Germany.