Can the CSA build an industrial economy

Say Sherman losses the battle of Atlanta which causes Lincoln not to be reelected in 1864. McClellan negotiates peace with the Confederacy giving them only the states that seceded (not claimed territory like Kentucky.) Can the Confederacy in the coming decades make the change over from an economy based on agriculture to an economy based on industry?

I have heard many arguments that the infrastructure, be it physical things like roads, railroads,telegraphs, etc.. or conceptual infrastructure like banks and government that would allow an industrial economy didn't and in some cases couldn't exist.(EX: Necessary tariffs to protect domestic goods and allow industry to grow were illegal under the CSA'S constitution). Can the CSA work around these problems and build a successful industrial economy? How long does it last? If it lasts into the modern age how do they handle the transition from an industrial to a knowledge economy?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Short answer - no

Say Sherman losses the battle of Atlanta which causes Lincoln not to be reelected in 1864. McClellan negotiates peace with the Confederacy giving them only the states that seceded (not claimed territory like Kentucky.) Can the Confederacy in the coming decades make the change over from an economy based on agriculture to an economy based on industry?

I have heard many arguments that the infrastructure, be it physical things like roads, railroads,telegraphs, etc.. or conceptual infrastructure like banks and government that would allow an industrial economy didn't and in some cases couldn't exist.(EX: Necessary tariffs to protect domestic goods and allow industry to grow were illegal under the CSA'S constitution). Can the CSA work around these problems and build a successful industrial economy? How long does it last? If it lasts into the modern age how do they handle the transition from an industrial to a knowledge economy?

Short answer? No.

Sherman loses to JE Johnston? Or Hood? How, pray tell?

Those are your first problems...

After that, odds are still quite high Lincoln wins in '64; the odds of the "McClellan wins" POD is pretty slim, given the make-up of the electoral college...plus the fact that Republicans control a majority of the state governments.

Even McClellan, although doing his damndest to whitewash the Democratic platform during the campaign, said he'd fight. Even Pendleton or Vallandigham is unlikely to order the US forces to withdraw from Tennesse (which has essentially been in federal hands since 1862-63), or much of Virginia, Louisiana, etc.

Given the documented historical weaknesses of the southern states in literacy, infrastructure, education, and governance, both in the antebellum period and the war, the odds are extremely high the "confederacy" could succeed at anything...

The odds the independent republics of Southern Virginia, East Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Texarkana would succeed at being independent nation states is about the same.

Biafra and Katanga would have had a better chances when they attempted to break away...

Best,
 
Say Sherman losses the battle of Atlanta which causes Lincoln not to be reelected in 1864. McClellan negotiates peace with the Confederacy giving them only the states that seceded (not claimed territory like Kentucky.)

A better premise requires three items:

  1. Sherman operations start has been delayed and when he eventually invests Altanta is at least late September (less than two months to the elections);
  2. Jefferson Davis does consult with Lee before sacking JE Johnston. Lee tells him that Johnston is trying to bog Sherman down in front of Atlanta as he is bogging down Grant in front of Petersburg. For once, Jefferson Davis is not an shining idiot and leaves Johnston in place.
  3. McClellan sticks to his peace platform and does not switch to a lets-continue-war stance as he did IOTL due to Atlanta fall.
Lincoln (as he severely feared IOTL) loses the elections and McClellan negotiates the peace on the basis that the frontier between USA and CSA is the current frontline. Southerners grumble but they know that can call themselves lucky and cave in (my pet dream: the confederacy split in two with a separate Texas...).

As far as building an industry, it is anathema to the semi-feudal elite of the confederacy.
 
I think yes, but it would be late to the party and would need to be pulled up by its bootstraps, which will likely require something dramatic like out and out fascism. I think that it is more likely that the CSA will cease to exist before it industrializes. I don't see the plantation owners switching to factories as their crops become less profitable.
 
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