Can the Allies win WW1 before Russia collapses ?
- Thread starter xerex
- Start date
Yes. If the ottomans stay neutral the Russians immediately have it way easier, both in fronts and food supply
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
Off the top of my head:
Have the BEF active in the immediate aftermath of the Battle of the Marne, and advance into the gap between the German 1st and 2nd armies. This isolates the German 1st army, leaving the French with enough forces to both engage the German 1st Army, tying it down in fighting, and get forces around the flank, winning the race to the sea. Once strong forces are in behind the German forces, the supply lines are cut, and it's all over.
Ottoman Empire doesn't join in, or, better yet, joins in on the Entente side. Britain honours its agreement over ship sales, tosses a few bribes, and the southern supply route to Russia is open. This (a) delays problems in Russia, (b) places greater weight of forces against Austria-Hungarian and supports the Entente countries in the Balkans, (c) frees up British manpower that is no longer needed in Mesopotamia and Egypt and Gallipoli, (d) enables Russia to deploy more forces against Germany in the north, causing Germany to bleed faster.
Bring the hard winter of 1917/18 forward to 1916/17. By this point, the German agricultural system was already under severe strain (rationing, malnutrition, deaths from disease brought about by inadequate food supplies - all were happening as German food production fell and distribution collapsed). If the Turnip Winter happens a year early, it's probable that the country that falls apart in revolution will be Germany, not Russia.
Have the BEF active in the immediate aftermath of the Battle of the Marne, and advance into the gap between the German 1st and 2nd armies. This isolates the German 1st army, leaving the French with enough forces to both engage the German 1st Army, tying it down in fighting, and get forces around the flank, winning the race to the sea. Once strong forces are in behind the German forces, the supply lines are cut, and it's all over.
Ottoman Empire doesn't join in, or, better yet, joins in on the Entente side. Britain honours its agreement over ship sales, tosses a few bribes, and the southern supply route to Russia is open. This (a) delays problems in Russia, (b) places greater weight of forces against Austria-Hungarian and supports the Entente countries in the Balkans, (c) frees up British manpower that is no longer needed in Mesopotamia and Egypt and Gallipoli, (d) enables Russia to deploy more forces against Germany in the north, causing Germany to bleed faster.
Bring the hard winter of 1917/18 forward to 1916/17. By this point, the German agricultural system was already under severe strain (rationing, malnutrition, deaths from disease brought about by inadequate food supplies - all were happening as German food production fell and distribution collapsed). If the Turnip Winter happens a year early, it's probable that the country that falls apart in revolution will be Germany, not Russia.
In terms of earliest victory?
If I'm not mistaken the Battle of Tannenberg in August 1914 was a close run thing if I'm not mistaken. If the two Russian armies communicate better, Russia could actually conquer most of East Prussia by the get go which also helps them narrow the front with Germany by eliminating the northern half of their Polish salient.
On the western front, Germany wouldn't even be completely through Belgium at that point and would be forced to send at least one army (more likely two) east to defend Berlin. This would grind the Invasion of France to a holt much earlier than otl. As Germany starts the race to the sea, their army end up being spread too far out due to sending troops to the Eastern front which makes it vunerable to a French counterattack before trench warfare really sets in.
Combine this with Austria getting it's ass kicked in Galicia and Serbia, the Central Powers are in a pretty bad spot by the end of 1914. The Ottomans might not join at all and Italy might join the Entente earlier... If this happens the war is over by the end of 1915.
If I'm not mistaken the Battle of Tannenberg in August 1914 was a close run thing if I'm not mistaken. If the two Russian armies communicate better, Russia could actually conquer most of East Prussia by the get go which also helps them narrow the front with Germany by eliminating the northern half of their Polish salient.
On the western front, Germany wouldn't even be completely through Belgium at that point and would be forced to send at least one army (more likely two) east to defend Berlin. This would grind the Invasion of France to a holt much earlier than otl. As Germany starts the race to the sea, their army end up being spread too far out due to sending troops to the Eastern front which makes it vunerable to a French counterattack before trench warfare really sets in.
Combine this with Austria getting it's ass kicked in Galicia and Serbia, the Central Powers are in a pretty bad spot by the end of 1914. The Ottomans might not join at all and Italy might join the Entente earlier... If this happens the war is over by the end of 1915.
If the Netherlands stopped being neutral and come on to the allies side then with the major of the German western front in France & Belgium the allies do a pincer maneuver coming south from the Netherlands and north from the french swiss border along the Rhine seizing or destroying any bridges. German troops would need to be bought in from the Russian front allowing much need breathing room and possible a victory that could help secure the Tsar until the war is over.
I remember reading somewhere that the public announcement of the resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare in February 1917 was delayed slightly because someone realized it would piss off Denmark and the way the armies were deployed would mean that if the Danes entered the war they’d be able to march on Berlin against virtually no opposition.
Aphrodite
Banned
Quick list:
Belgians delay the Germans forcing them through the Netherlands
Anglo-French push through the gap at the Marne and encircle the First German Army
Rennemkampf pushes through the Cavalry screen and wins Tannenberg
Russians succeed in encircling Conrad in the south
With prewar Pods, there are probably hundreds
Any significant improvement by the Entente in August 1914, will keep the Ottomans neutral and speed up Italian intervention Combined, they are decisive
Belgians delay the Germans forcing them through the Netherlands
Anglo-French push through the gap at the Marne and encircle the First German Army
Rennemkampf pushes through the Cavalry screen and wins Tannenberg
Russians succeed in encircling Conrad in the south
With prewar Pods, there are probably hundreds
Any significant improvement by the Entente in August 1914, will keep the Ottomans neutral and speed up Italian intervention Combined, they are decisive
What the others have said. After such an early, crushing defeat you presumably end up with the new borders being respectively on the Oder (Russia) and the Rhine (France), which means rump Germany (if it is allowed to exist as a political entity) will be nothing but a meek, obedient footstool to Franco-Russian boots for the foreseeable future. Now, the butterflies caused by *that* are anyone's guess. Both internationally, as the naked display of imperialism any non-Wilsonian Entente peace will set up a very different postwar world, and for Russia in particular as the prestige of victory is offset by even worse overextension.
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
After all, in OTL, the total exhaustion of Germany in 1918 and the determination of the Entente powers to keep Germany down resulted in Germany never starting anything again.
A war ending "before the leaves fall", as Kaiser Wilhelm predicted, means that Germany hasn't gone through the Turnip Winter (exacerbated by the Blockade), with an estimated 1 million plus dead from malnutrition and associated diseases (where the situation reached a point where troops in the front lines were sending food parcels back home).
As for whether Germany is allowed to exist as a political entity, that's an interesting question, one that the Germans themselves (to judge by the trench newspapers of the period) were asking. Certainly, the level of hatred from Saxon and Bavarian and others towards the Prussians was very high. There are any number of reports of Saxon regiments advising British troops when Prussians were launching trench raids. Prussians had become blamed by others for continuing the war, and one phrase reported (several places, several times, was: "Kill the Prussians, then we can all go home."
BigBlueBox
Banned
Knocking the Ottomans out of the war early with a successful Gallipoli campaign or an alternative would be massively beneficial for Russia.
On the other hand, those borders make it very hard for Germany to come back, if not impossible. The loss of the Rhineland also means the loss of Germany's industrial and resource-extraction heartland. No more steel, no more coal. It also gives France a formidable defensive position that cannot simply be flanked the way the OTL 1940 border could through the Ardennes.
The Oder border is equally punishing, and the distance involved in order to make Russia bleed so great that even a complete Barbarossa-style surprise effect would evaporate too far from anything that actually matters for Germany to have any hope. On the other hand, this is definitely the border with more potential for any such alternate history TL. If Russia collapses into a civil war, then it is possible Germany can march back to reclaim its prewar borders. If this is impossible then perhaps we see an independent Prussia (either right-wing or left-wing depending on what happened to it under Russian rule and how they interacted with the other minorities in the troubled borderlands of the Russian Empire).
David Flin
Gone Fishin'
Why knock them out? With a bit of astute diplomatic footwork earlier, they can be kept neutral, possibly even brought into the Entente.
nbcman
Donor
Germany's fastest path to ending the war is by A-H falling apart sooner.
Samsonov doesn't follow the even greater moron Zhilinsky's orders and stays put along the border of East Prussia.
The Russians are able to apply greater pressure to A-H which results in the Russians getting over the Carpathian mountains.
Potiorek isn't removed fast enough after ordering the retreat from Serbia and it turns into a rout.
Rumania smells blood and declares war to grab Transylvania.
Italy joins the Entente in early 1915 seeing A-H falling apart to grab their share.
Bulgaria stays out of the CP side with A-H coming apart.
A-H folds in early to mid 1915.
After all this, Germany stands alone or with a very distant Ottoman Empire that would be looking for the exit door.Coulsdon Eagle
Monthly Donor
An early peace without the colossal death toll would IMHO ameliorate the terms. Germany would still lose Alsace-Lorraine and parts of Prussia & Silesia (and possibly bits of Schlewig-Holstein) aong with some colonies, while A-H loses Galicia and Serbia comes out in one piece. What is probably lost are the draconian reparation & military clauses, along with the contentious war guilt clause. So more like the peace of 1871 rather than 1919. You also don't have the great nationalist movements in the Habsburg Empire, as no-one (Great Powers) would really want to replace an Empire (giving others a lesson to follow) with all those horrid independent states just like the Balkans; Wilson hasn't come along to insist upon national self-determination - which the French & British wouldn't like giving ideas to their oppressed colonial natives.
BigBlueBox
Banned
Neutrality isn't enough if they aren't allowing Entente commerce through the straits or allowing CP commerce through them. Bringing them into the Entente is a stretch.
IIRC the Ottoman foreign minister visited France in the period before WWI and was interested in an alliance but for reasons I'm not sure of it didn't come to anything.
Ottoman neutrality easiest and most plausable way for earlier(late 1916) entente victory with 1914 POD.
Here my ideas
The RN/MN forces the Dardanelles and reaches the Bosporus after the British use reconnaissance aircraft and spot many of the mines combined with a better organised mine sweeping fleet under Keynes.
The Ottoman government panics, abandons Istanbul (which they were about to do OTL convinced that the British and French Navy were about to bust through) - and several weeks later seeks terms after the Capital (where most of their industry was and only munitions factory) is occupied by the 29th Division with the Anzacs along with French troops
This allows all of those troops that were used in the Gallipoli campaign - about half a million all told - to instead be used on the Western front in 1915
The knocking out of the Ottomans encourages Romania and Bulgaria and Greece along with Italy of course to join the Entente in early 1915.
There that should do it
The RN/MN forces the Dardanelles and reaches the Bosporus after the British use reconnaissance aircraft and spot many of the mines combined with a better organised mine sweeping fleet under Keynes.
The Ottoman government panics, abandons Istanbul (which they were about to do OTL convinced that the British and French Navy were about to bust through) - and several weeks later seeks terms after the Capital (where most of their industry was and only munitions factory) is occupied by the 29th Division with the Anzacs along with French troops
This allows all of those troops that were used in the Gallipoli campaign - about half a million all told - to instead be used on the Western front in 1915
The knocking out of the Ottomans encourages Romania and Bulgaria and Greece along with Italy of course to join the Entente in early 1915.
There that should do it