Can Sweden win the Thirty Year's War?

Okay, let's suppose that gustavus Adolphus wins at Lutzen. It's heroic, it's epic... and then what?

Richelieu has no desire for a Protestant state to dominate northern germany. The Habsburgs are still a force.

And what is Wallenstein going to be up to? Will he still toy with defecting? And can he?
 

Oddball

Monthly Donor
Hmmm

What do you mean with "win?"

In some ways you could say that Sweden did "win" OTL? :confused::confused:

While in other ways it lost.

Difficult question :eek:
 
Sweden managing to achieve it's ultimate goal of a Swedish-dominated North German Union is probably impossible, but I would say they could certainly achieve a greater degree of victory than OTL. A Sweden that has all of Pommerania of Mecklemburg under its control (directly or indirectly) isn't as dangerous to the balance of power as a protestant super-state, but is still well ahead of OTL.
 

Susano

Banned
Hm. Gustav Adolph went around giving out bishoprics like candy, as fiefs, even though he didnt have the authority to do so. I guess that would be quite a yardstick for Swedish "victory", if those things are accepted...
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I think that OTL results could be seen as a win if they could follow up on it after the war. The problem are that Sweden gain some possesion it really didn't know what to do with. So let's imagine that the siege of Copenhagen succed in 1659, and the Danish king are reduced to his possesiosn in Schleswig-Holstein, Charles X are elected King of Denmark and crowned in Norway. From here their ability to project power into Germany has gotten a lot better, and they cantry to start a 30YW round 2.
 

Oddball

Monthly Donor
I think that OTL results could be seen as a win if they could follow up on it after the war. The problem are that Sweden gain some possesion it really didn't know what to do with. So let's imagine that the siege of Copenhagen succed in 1659, and the Danish king are reduced to his possesiosn in Schleswig-Holstein, Charles X are elected King of Denmark and crowned in Norway. From here their ability to project power into Germany has gotten a lot better, and they cantry to start a 30YW round 2.

I have always had a hard time beliving this. Even with the internal rivalry out of the picture.

IMHO both the Swedish and Danish kings had a severe unhealty interest in meddeling in German affairs.

The Nordic population base is just to small. The ability to dominate Germany for anything but a short time is illusive.

I could be wrong ofcourse... :eek:
 
Gustav had plans to announce himself protestant Emperor. A Swedish victory would mean the IOTL gains for Sweden plus several others.

1. Sweden would be declared protector of the protestants in Germany, giving an excuse to intervene at any time it pleases.
2. The Swedish Empire would be acknowledged as ruling Sweden, Finland, Estonia and Denmark east of the sound (spells bad news for Denmark, they're next in line to be sibjugated).
3. The protestant princes in Germany would probably be forced to pay a tax for their protection.
4. Possibly, the protestant areas would be broken out of the Holy German Empire - having two weaker Germanies and break the power of the Habsburgs in Germany would be quite nice to the French.

I am guessing Brandenburg/Prussia would force the title away from Sweden sometime late 1700 or early 1800, but like the Austrians when they lost the Holy German Emperor title, Sweden would probably just take an Imperial title over Sweden, Finland and any other holding at the time.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I have always had a hard time beliving this. Even with the internal rivalry out of the picture.

IMHO both the Swedish and Danish kings had a severe unhealty interest in meddeling in German affairs.

The Nordic population base is just to small. The ability to dominate Germany for anything but a short time is illusive.

I could be wrong ofcourse... :eek:

I disagree meddling in German affair wasn't a bad idea, through when we look in a post-nationalistic hindsight it may look that way. the increase in Danish control of Schleswig-Holstein resulted in a large increase in the economical capacities of the Danish state. While the removal of the Gottorps from the Duchies limited the Swedish state military option against Denmark. Beside the ownership of German possesion made it easier for German agricultural development to spread to Denmark, a good example before 1660 Scania had 350 thousand people a little more than Zealand and Fuen today it has arouns a third, while some of that are a result of population increase in Copenhagen, it also have a lot to do with Danish agriculture was ahead of Scania until moden day.
The bad thing for Denmark was that it gained the Gottorp Holsteins possesions at the wrong time if it had gotten it 60 year before or later it would have tuerned out quite differently, but it was gained at the birth of a strong anti-German sentiment, which meant they was alienated from the new state they became member of, and the Gottorp city of Kiel ended up the cultural centre of Schleswig-Holstein thanks to its German university (a university which was close to death at the Oldenburg annexion, thanks to a Oldenburg boycot of it). If the annexion had happen later Kiel University would have have becomed irrelevant and student would have to travel to other German states or Copenhagen (especially if they wished to work in the Oldenburg possesions) to get a education. Making Copenhagen the cultural centre of all the the Oldenburg possesions.
 
Okay, let's suppose that gustavus Adolphus wins at Lutzen. It's heroic, it's epic... and then what?

Well, he won the battle closely, he only lost his life there ...


Of course, neither Sweden nor France had entered the war for the scant territorial gains they made IOTL. It was a war to establish a claim to univerrsal power, from Sweden, France, as well as from the Habsburg kin. In this sense, they all failed, and Europe had to face that such a claim would certainly never be fullfilled.

So "winning" in the narrow sense would mean that Sweden could keep a hegemonial position over much of central Europe. This situation was given during Gustav Adolph's short, but excessively successful campaign 1631-32. True that he considered claiming the title on the Emperor, which in the sense of that time is unique and excludes rivalling imperial titles. He already had shaped much of such a New Empire through alliances, by ...


giving out bishoprics like candy, as fiefs, even though he didnt have the authority to do so.


So the main question would be, could G.A. continue to reign 60% of Germany from the Martinsburg in Mainz if he survives the battle of Lützen?
In short term, this is a military question, and I doubt that Wallenstein, when reinstalled, would not be able to constrain G.A. roughly as much as he did IOTL.

But then all parties in the later Thirty Years war were at the brink of collapse at least once, so it takes not many random detail changes to turn military fate.
Then again, the military disaster Austria suffered close to the end did not cost it so much power in the peace treaties as the "victors" (seemingly?) could have enforced.





@Adler:
Caution with Brandenburg, you may as well butterfly away Brandenburg's rise,
which is intimately related to the TYW as it happened IOTL.
And I don't believe Sweden would rule over Denmark in the long run, despite potential analogues of Thorstenson's War.
 
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