One word,logistics. Spain didn't have enough logistics to fight a major war in the Caribbean neither did the Germans. If the Germans tried they'd attract the attention of somebody who did,England.
The U.S.Congress came within one vote of giving the Philippines independence,Big mistake.No. The only reason the US took us was because they wanted some spoils after Cuba became independent. There is no need for any great power to conquer us when they can make this place into a protectorate instead.
That's logical, 25K isn't enough to conquer and hold the Phillipines. Its a big country. The same rule of thumb applies to commiting more troops as it did to lift capacity; if USA in OTL could move 100K troops over a few years to Phillipines to crush the rebellion, then so to could Kaiser's Germany in ATL. I was just saying that if Germany is only occupying two ports in the Caribbean (vs. trying to conquer Cuba & Puerto Rico) then they could devote more of their immediate carrying capacity to send troops to the Phillipines than the USA did in OTL. I'm guessing the Germans would send something akin to the US Expedition at first though (just to secure Manila). More would follow as the conflict widened.
Just because the US could run small arms into the Phillipines doesn't mean it would happen as a large-scale organized military effort. I mean, the US Navy wasn't thinking in terms of assymnetric warfare. Military pressure for revenge in the USA would focus on building more battleships, not supplying foreign guerilla fighters. Maybe some gun-running would happen like in Cuba pre-1898 OTL, but the Pacific would make that much more expensive.
Well, there are still US troops on the ground. The first reaction if you are part of the US expedition troops if Dewey's ships got sunk was go to the locals for help, food, supplies, etc. The Spanish held, as far as I know only two places. Manila and Baler. This would make even the German Navy in Manila Bay, trapped. This would also force the locals to actually attack and take Manila as planned compared to waiting in OTL to let the Americans take it which would leave the Spanish control only in Baler.
Assuming that the US or any foreign nation did not have anymore troops, Yes, what you describe will happen although in a very different manner since the US was treated as an ally by the locals. I could guess the end result would be the same (Germany controlling) but the Germans would have more casualties due to the initial relationship the US had with the locals and the Germans needing to retake Manila.
But I don't know how Germany would react. You still got some Filipino presence in Europe that can appeal to the Kaiser compared to no Filipinos in Washington DC in OTL like what Jose Marti did for Cuba. Meaning Germany can still go full conquering or just take Subic or Sangley bases and leave the locals alone. The Luna's were particularly quite influential both with the Spanish and Belgian monarch's in OTL. Dont know how far that influence's reach goes. Can go either way if you ask me.
Cavite had the only real naval facilities though, and it is a narrow peninsula. So, I was thinking they'd just garrison there at first. Its defense vs/ land attack would be German cruisers.
Or would Cavite have been vulnerable to land based artillery?
The leftover US forces would be holding Cavite Naval yard. It was the first thing that Dewey took right after Battle of Manila Bay vs Spain. The US can continue to defend it and hope for naval reinforcements or leave plus just burn whatever the Germans can use.
The Naval Yard back then had 2 forts protecting it.
The range from Aguinaldo's house(not ideal place to fire but just to give an idea for artillery firing range) to the Naval Yard would be roughly 4-5 kms. The local rebels had access to 88mm/75mm Krupp gun, 150mm Ordoñez Gun.
I don't know what field artillery the Americans would be bringing assuming Dewey's squadron sank vs German months after they initially sank the Spanish at Manila Bay.
Baler is located on the Eastern side of the islands; it might not have been ideal, but it may have been the location for landing the 10k troops in the first American wave if the war breaks out earlier and the US heads for the Philippines. If not, again, they'd likely turn around and occupy Guam or start occupying other Caroline islands.
Also, why the assumption that Japan immediately gets it? If this war from the outset features the US, then they'd be driving for the Philippines again with their expanded fleet. Considering the desirable location, and how the locals still desire independence, you might have the Philippines be allowed independence as the US and Japan fight over who gets control of the islands. It would be a compromise, after all.
Unless, of course, the US maintains a treaty with the British and others detailing their gains in the event of war with Germany, and stating explicitly what they will be getting regardless of who occupies what first. I'm thinking the 1915 Treaty of London, but before the war. Whether this is followed out, however, is another question.
...the only thing I can think of as a way for the Spanish to at least eke out a win in Cuba is to fight better at Santiago (a number of mistakes were made) and hold out long enough for disease to really make an impact on US troops.
In OTL our forces got pulled out pretty much just in the nick of time and even then disease casualties were serious. Hold out for a couple of months and with luck mother nature will inflict severe casualties on the American forces in Cuba.
But that requires some better Spanish planning in terms of logistical preparations at Santiago. It also requires some stern willpower from the Spanish as well..
So, the Americans make landfall at a place such as Santa Anna, hear the news about Dewey's defeat at 2nd Manila Bay, and then go to Baler. Maybe they get there sooner on their own, but more likely later at the request of Aguinaldo.
In this instance I was previously imagining the US would be focused on German Puerto Rico and Spanish Cuba, rather than the far off Phillipines. That would leave the Japanese to take Phillipines in WWI, whenever it starts.
Based on Namanyan's post though, it appears the Germans would have little opening in the ATL as described by Jim D other than to acquire a naval base at Mariveles Bay or a similar place. I expect there's be a second war if USA, Germany, and the rebels divide up the Phillipines. Its just a matter of time until Germany and the USA fight again. Whether that sparks a WWI in 1903 or 1906, or they fight only each other (and maybe Spain or the Phillipinos again) is beyond the scope of this thread.
Basically the Spanish lose any which way unless they enlist the mosquito to their cause by delaying a US conquest of Cuba as a previous poster suggested (Galveston23?).
Basically the Spanish lose the war any which way unless they enlist the mosquito to their cause by delaying a US conquest of Cuba as suggested previous:
So, in this ATL approach, USA keeps Puerto Rico, Spain keeps Cuba, and Germany, USA, and Phillipinos divvy up the Phillipines. That's until the war re-sparks years later.