Can Paraguay win the War of the Triple Alliance?

Personally I believe it could've with some more preparation, better leadership, and a bit of luck, but most people would probably disagree with me given that I'm a bit of an optimist.
 
Well considering they were at war with all their neighbors at once I don't see what could have saved them. Not only did they manage to get into war with them, they offended them so badly that their enemies would only accept total capitulation.
 
Once the fighting actually starts, I don't know how much can be done, but I think Paraguay was capable of winning a limited war against any of its opponents. Unfortunately, what it ended up getting into was a total war against all three of them, and if I recall correctly this was largely a matter of bad timing and poor diplomacy on the part of Lopez and the rest of the Paraguayan leadership. Brazil and Argentina were often not on good terms during this period, but Lopez chose to get involved at a time when they were both backing the same faction in Uruguay. If he had waited, a better opportunity might have presented itself.
 
True, they kinda messed up on the diplomatic end of things. Their invasion of Argentina threw away the support of Urquiza, who could've helped given he was involved in his own war against the current Buenos Aires government. It also would've helped if Lopez had a clearer goal for his war. But even after all that, he still had a chance at the Battle of Tuyuti. Tuyuti's been called the Gettysburg of South America, but Gettysburg was far less decisive. Lee could not have won the war simply by winning at Gettysburg, but at Tuyuti if Lopez had won he could've killed or captured not just a large chunk of the Brazilian army, one of Brazil's top generals, and most of the Argentine and Uruguayan armies, but the heads of state of both Argentina and Uruguay, 2 of his 3 opponents. This victory would likely have knocked both of them out of the war, leaving Urquiza to step up in Argentina and make deals with Lopez, putting a Paraguay-friendly government in Uruguay, and leaving Brazil all alone to face Paraguay, with many of their best troops and officers gone. What's more is that this may have even galvanized Bolivia and Chile to join Paraguay, as both lent moral support to them and threatened to join Paraguay's side IOTL. It's possible Brazil would've just given up at this point or a later time if Paraguay continued being lucky. What's difficult is figuring out what would probably happen in the aftermath.
 
Not long after there would be revenge. Brazil and Argentina will certainly seek rematch in few years. It is just not possible to have a stable situation with both countries being dominated by miniscule Paraguay.
 
Maybe, maybe not. It probably would come down to whether or not Bolivia and Chile would commit to an alliance with Paraguay, to counter Brazilian domination of the continent and all that. And Paraguay would continue to grow, on paper at least it was much stronger than all of its foes before the war, even if they didn't turn out to have the manpower to win a war where Solano Lopez insisted on screwing up constantly. But they were still highly industrialized and could possibly continue to get outside help to remain the power at the heart of South America.
 
I didn't know much about that war, but they way it is described in this thread makes me think of it as a sort of a WWI South American analog, with Paraguay as the equivalent of Germany...
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
It was practically that indeed. The war reduced Paraguay's population to just under 300,000, and only a tenth or fifteenth of that were males. Any worse and it would've just been better off to just annex the nation outright.
 
I didn't know much about that war, but they way it is described in this thread makes me think of it as a sort of a WWI South American analog, with Paraguay as the equivalent of Germany...

the war was much worse than that; Paraguay mobilized (i believe) 90% of its male population, and almost all of them were killed.

leaving the country with decades to recover.
 
It's utterly incredible that Paraguay, in the 1860s, managed to attain such a horrifying death toll, which proportionately far exceeds that of even WWII Japan or Russia.
 
What's even more incredible is how they managed to fight another bloody war with Bolivia just half a century later...

One thing that's always intrigued me - how did Paraguay manage to get its population back up in time for the Chaco War? I remember hearing that they legalised polygamy, but I've never seen any actual evidence for it.
 
It's utterly incredible that Paraguay, in the 1860s, managed to attain such a horrifying death toll, which proportionately far exceeds that of even WWII Japan or Russia.

One thing that's always intrigued me - how did Paraguay manage to get its population back up in time for the Chaco War? I remember hearing that they legalised polygamy, but I've never seen any actual evidence for it.

That's because simply there is no numbers about the real population of Paraguay in that age that can really be trusted.

The most know version about the Paraguayan losses states that the country had, just before the war, a population between 800,000 and 1,337,439 people, the last number being registered in the 1857 census. In 1886 a new census registered 236.751, and due to this several authors state that Paraguaian losses in the war reached 70% of the general population and 99% of the male population.

The problem of these numbers is that the census of 1857 simply can't be trusted, as the census of 1846 had registered a population of 250,000 people. Therefore, in order to Paraguay have 1.3 million people they should have an annual population increase of 17%! Nowadays it's believed that by 1864 the population of Paraguay was between 285,000 and 450,000, depending on the rate of annual populational growth used for the period between 1846 and 1864.

Also, there is the 1870 census, made by the provisional government, that indicated a population of 116.351 just right after the war. If we project information of communities that didn't send any data for the government, then the total population should be between 140,000 and 165,000 people in 1870.

However, this census of 1870 can't really be trusted too, as the provisional government, in a country devastated by war and with no roads, simply didn't have the conditions to organize it properly (and the local rulers probably had other concerns to be worried about). Also, it has no numbers of how many people fled the country to Argentina and Mato Grosso.
 
Last edited:
how in the hell did paraguay survive as a country after those losses? did men move there afterward to snatch up all the single women?
 
how in the hell did paraguay survive as a country after those losses? did men move there afterward to snatch up all the single women?

the native Americans married most of the women.
They weren't forced to fight in the war.

and i think men were aloud more than one wife; but i could be wrong.
 
the native Americans married most of the women.
They weren't forced to fight in the war.

and i think men were aloud more than one wife; but i could be wrong.

It doesn't mean they were allowed to marry more than one wife. What happened is that the Paraguayan society simply became extremely tolerant about "mistresses". The adult men started to divide much more of their time between their "official" wife and their lovers. Poligamy was never legalized, but sexual morality became extremely liberal. In some villages the women started to share the few adult men alive. Also, Paraguay was occupied by Allied forces (they reached 30,000 at their peak) and most of those soldiers took "Paraguayan wives" during their period there.
 
Top