Can Hungary expand during the 30s and 40s without taking part in WWII?

[Gukpard]

Before anyone asks, yes I got this idea from Hearts of Iron, HOWEVER I still think that this reasoning can work, so here the idea: Let's say that Hungary does accept it's northern provinces from puppet slovakia and Northern Transylvania under the Diktat, and during the invasion of Yugoslavia Hungary does gives supply for the axis but doesn't directly attack Yugoslavia, and it later is "given" some minor parts of Vojvodina. During the war Hungary continues it's neutrality-pro axis and send some form of division blue like the spanish to take part on barbarossa, but the germans still get's crushed from both sides and Germany is divided, while Hungary cut off all ties with the axis on the later months of war and takes over many german technical expertise by holding off fleeing war criminals.

In OTL, after the war ended the regime of Franco was declared unlawfull by the UN and it had it's ties with the west cutoff, until he allowed the US to use bases in his country in the mid cold war:

About the above scenario with Hungary, I have two questions:

1- Is this Hungarian expansion possible, or the soviets and the allies would declare war on Hungary on the middle of the war and later defeat them as OTL?
2- If this expansion is possible, would Hungary be a post war pariah state like Francoist Spain, or would it be more like Argentina who did take axis war criminals but didn't suffered such treatment? What if the Hungarian government, be under Horthy or a fascist monarchy (NOT the Habsburgs, for the love of sauerkraut) declares to be pro Western allies immediately after the war and call new elections?

 

[sloreck]

If Hungary is a pro-Axis neutral, even if it doesn't send a division of "volunteers" to Russia like Spain did, there is no love lost between Hungary and the USSR. I expect the USSR would find some excuse to declare war against Hungary once things are going well and the Red Army is on the border or close to it. This becomes a certainty if the Hungarians have "volunteer" units fighting alongside the Germans. The US/UK/France may not be happy about this, but they are most certainly not going to do anything about it. Another complication is that if you have German units retreating in to Hungary as they are pushed westward - what do the Hungarians do? If they follow the rules, they disarm and intern these troops, which pisses the Germans off. If they let them retreat through Hungary to Poland or Germany, they piss off the Russians and violate international law. If they piss off the Germans badly enough so the Germans decide to move in, they are also screwed because even if they fight the Germans, the Russians will enter Hungary and the fact the Horthy government was fighting the Germans won't matter.

IMHO no matter what the Soviets are going to want, at a minimum, a weak neutral Hungary. At most, what they got OTL.

 

[Gukpard]

If Hungary is a pro-Axis neutral, even if it doesn't send a division of "volunteers" to Russia like Spain did, there is no love lost between Hungary and the USSR. I expect the USSR would find some excuse to declare war against Hungary once things are going well and the Red Army is on the border or close to it. This becomes a certainty if the Hungarians have "volunteer" units fighting alongside the Germans. The US/UK/France may not be happy about this, but they are most certainly not going to do anything about it. Another complication is that if you have German units retreating in to Hungary as they are pushed westward - what do the Hungarians do? If they follow the rules, they disarm and intern these troops, which pisses the Germans off. If they let them retreat through Hungary to Poland or Germany, they piss off the Russians and violate international law. If they piss off the Germans badly enough so the Germans decide to move in, they are also screwed because even if they fight the Germans, the Russians will enter Hungary and the fact the Horthy government was fighting the Germans won't matter.

IMHO no matter what the Soviets are going to want, at a minimum, a weak neutral Hungary. At most, what they got OTL.

Let's consider than Hungary had one of the strongest armies of the european axis, and they didn't took part on Barbarossa on this scenario, meaning that their troops are not as exausted as the germans or the soviets. Would Stalin still consider attacking Hungary in this situation? I saw somewhere here on the forum that by 1945, while the soviet army was the largest on the world, they had barely two million people left to mobilize and their troops were exausted after four years of total war. Given that Horthy or however is in power declare on early 1945 to be trying to get on good relationships with the allies, especially after the allies have crossed into Germany, would Stalin still consider invading Hungary?

 

[Bourbonic Plague]

If you have it so Germany does better in the east you might be able to get a USSR with 1936 borders + Baltic States leading to an independent Hungary with the borders. Hungary backstabbing Hitler would also help in solidifying it's alliance with the wallies.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Let's consider than Hungary had one of the strongest armies of the european axis, and they didn't took part on Barbarossa on this scenario, meaning that their troops are not as exausted as the germans or the soviets. Would Stalin still consider attacking Hungary in this situation? I saw somewhere here on the forum that by 1945, while the soviet army was the largest on the world, they had barely two million people left to mobilize and their troops were exausted after four years of total war. Given that Horthy or however is in power declare on early 1945 to be trying to get on good relationships with the allies, especially after the allies have crossed into Germany, would Stalin still consider invading Hungary?

He doesn't need to: Hungary would be surrounded by Soviet satalites and economically isolated post-war, so the Fascist regeime won't be surviving.

 

[BigBlueBox]

He doesn't need to: Hungary would be surrounded by Soviet satalites and economically isolated post-war, so the Fascist regeime won't be surviving.

Are you claiming Austria was a Soviet satellite?

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Are you claiming Austria was a Soviet satellite?

East Austria was an occupation zone so close enough

 

[Gukpard]

East Austria was an occupation zone so close enough

Austria got Finlandized, the soviets retreated from it and if they tried to stay that place would be a burden for the Soviet bloc since Yugoslavia will break off in '47 and the austrians absolutely hated the soviet occupation, heck, I got a friend of Vienna who said that a Mongol Horde pillaging the capital wouldn't steal so many as the sovies did.

And well, the regime is not so important here, it can fall and the scenario still can be fullfiled. The idea is to have Hungary keep north transylvania, North vojvodina and south Slovakia.

 

[marathag]

Only way would be if they actually join the Allies before March '44 and can hold off a German invasion, and prevent an Coup from the Arrow Cross clique

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Austria got Finlandized, the soviets retreated from it and if they tried to stay that place would be a burden for the Soviet bloc since Yugoslavia will break off in '47 and the austrians absolutely hated the soviet occupation, heck, I got a friend of Vienna who said that a Mongol Horde pillaging the capital wouldn't steal so many as the sovies did.

Austria was occupied by the Soviets for 10 years more than enough time to starve out Hungary that is if the Red Army doesn't put them down first

And well, the regime is not so important here, it can fall and the scenario still can be fullfiled. The idea is to have Hungary keep north transylvania, North vojvodina and south Slovakia.

Yes yes it does the question you posed is can Hungary expand in the 30s and 40s without taking part in the 2nd Worldwar the answer is they can't

 

[anotherlurker]

And well, the regime is not so important here, it can fall and the scenario still can be fullfiled. The idea is to have Hungary keep north transylvania, North vojvodina and south Slovakia.

They can get the Germans to "grant" them northern Transylvania in exchange for benevolent neutrality but once things go south for the Germans the Romanians will strike back most likely with Soviet support after they've become a satellite.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Austria got Finlandized, the soviets retreated from it and if they tried to stay that place would be a burden for the Soviet bloc since Yugoslavia will break off in '47 and the austrians absolutely hated the soviet occupation, heck, I got a friend of Vienna who said that a Mongol Horde pillaging the capital wouldn't steal so many as the sovies did.

And well, the regime is not so important here, it can fall and the scenario still can be fullfiled. The idea is to have Hungary keep north transylvania, North vojvodina and south Slovakia.

Operative word being "keep". Any Soviet removal of the Fascist regeime in Budapest is almost guranteed to come with a "restoration" of any territories awarded by the Nazis, especially if Vojvodina is used to help but Tito's loyalty.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Only way would be if they actually join the Allies before March '44 and can hold off a German invasion, and prevent an Coup from the Arrow Cross clique

How about this: seeing the writing on the wall, they make a (successful) secret deal with the Allies to enter the war, provided they provide support. This means the Allies actually go through with the plan to land troops in the Balkans. Once the Wallies land, Hungary switches sides (after a quick Night of the Long Knives against the Arrow Cross) and lets them in, allowing for a march on Vienna and seriously wrecking the German front. Have this may be part of the Yalta Conference, so the Soviets are either okay with it, or they ask that Hungary and Austria become neutral postwar.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

How about this: seeing the writing on the wall, they make a (successful) secret deal with the Allies to enter the war, provided they provide support. This means the Allies actually go through with the plan to land troops in the Balkans. Once the Wallies land, Hungary switches sides (after a quick Night of the Long Knives against the Arrow Cross) and lets them in, allowing for a march on Vienna and seriously wrecking the German front. Have this may be part of the Yalta Conference, so the Soviets are either okay with it, or they ask that Hungary and Austria become neutral postwar.

....land where exactly? Croatia? Greece? Why is the US going through with this again why is the UK or the US cutting deals with a fascist government who served as Co-Belligerents with the Axis powers?

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Let's consider than Hungary had one of the strongest armies of the european axis, and they didn't took part on Barbarossa on this scenario, meaning that their troops are not as exausted as the germans or the soviets. Would Stalin still consider attacking Hungary in this situation? I saw somewhere here on the forum that by 1945, while the soviet army was the largest on the world, they had barely two million people left to mobilize and their troops were exausted after four years of total war. Given that Horthy or however is in power declare on early 1945 to be trying to get on good relationships with the allies, especially after the allies have crossed into Germany, would Stalin still consider invading Hungary?

Poland fielded one of the strongest armies in Eastern Europe look how well that went Hungary is surrounded on all sides by Soviet forces with a massive advantage in just about everything and if Stalin can get away with it he will especially if this Hungary is hiding German criminals

 

[Ultima Ratio]

....land where exactly? Croatia? Greece? Why is the US going through with this again why is the UK or the US cutting deals with a fascist government who served as Co-Belligerents with the Axis powers?

I believe Churchill had a plan for a Dalmatian landing IOTL. I think OP established that Hungary is not a co-belligerent ITTL.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

I believe Churchill had a plan for a Dalmatian landing IOTL. I think OP established that Hungary is not a co-belligerent ITTL.

Yes Churchill now how many of his hair-brained schemes did the US and the rest of the British Army have to talk him out of?

If their not a Belligerent then they certainly aren't neutral

Yugoslavia Hungary does gives supply for the axis but doesn't directly attack Yugoslavia, and it later is "given" some minor parts of Vojvodina. During the war Hungary continues it's neutrality-pro axis and send some form of division blue like the spanish to take part on barbarossa, but the germans still get's crushed from both sides and Germany is divided, while Hungary cut off all ties with the axis on the later months of war and takes over many german technical expertise by holding off fleeing war criminals.

So letting German troops use your territory to attack a neutral nation committing forces to another war of aggression in the East and also presumably letting German troops and formations use their transportation networks for transit that does not sound like a neutral nation

 

[Ultima Ratio]

So letting German troops use your territory to attack a neutral nation committing forces to another war of aggression in the East and also presumably letting German troops and formations use their transportation networks for transit that does not sound like a neutral nation

If Finland could pull it off, so can Hungary, IMHO.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

If Finland could pull it off, so can Hungary, IMHO.

But Finland isn't surrounded by Soviet satellites and borders a bunch of angry neighbours and is dealing with major ethnic tensions

 

[Ultima Ratio]

But Finland isn't surrounded by Soviet satellites and borders a bunch of angry neighbours and is dealing with major ethnic tensions

Nor is Hungary surrounded by Soviet sattelites in 1944. If there are Allied forces in reach, they could go for it. Romania might follow as well.