Can Grossdeutchland and France be allies after 1848?

Eurofed

Banned
Is there any way that, in the Habsburg disaster scenario, a young Franz Josef is persuaded to give up on Hungary and Italy in favor of the German crown? Or is that just too absurd?

If the Habsburg get a *real* leap of insight, they may divide their lands in three parts, each ruled by a member of their family. One Habsburg (Franz Joseph) becomes Emperor of Germany, another (Maximilian) King of Italy, a third (Karl Ludwig) King of Hungary. The three states to be bound by an economic union, military alliance, and dynastic pact. As long as they get a liberal constitution and national unity or independence, German, Italian, and Hungarian patriots don't really mind who gets his backside on the throne.

It'd be awfully absurd. Plus, the Prussians would never stand for it.

The Prussians may bought into the plan with concessions that make them second-in-command within Germany, with a serious share of power (e.g. they have a lion's share in the command of the German military), and promise of putting a Hohenzollern on the thrones of Poland and the unified Baltic states, to be set up in a case of war with Russia. As a placeholder for this, they can set up an independent Polish kingdom of Posen-Galicia, with an Hohenzollern on the throne.
 
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The Prussians may bought into the plan with concessions that make them second-in-command within Germany, with a serious share of power (e.g. they have a lion's share in the command of the German military), and promise of putting a Hohenzollern on the thrones of Poland and the unified Baltic states, to be set up in a case of war with Russia. As a placeholder for this, they can set up an independent Polish kingdom of Posen-Galicia, with an Hohenzollern on the throne.

If by the Prussians we mean the Hohenzollerns, the landed junkers, and the army, they're less in control of the Prussian state than at any time since Jena. The bigger objection is that the liberals were distinctly uncomfortable with Habsburg absolutism. OTOH, if they were willing to offer the Prussian king the "crown from the gutter," why not the Austrian emperor? The Habsburgs had a lot more legitimacy in terms of historic leadership of the Reich. Heck, for that matter, so did the Wittlesbachs and the Wettins!

Franz Josef is a mellow enough character, from a traditional enough dynasty, that he may reassure Tsar Nikolai. The British always considered him a damned reasonable old chap. And he's really not the type to bring down blood and iron on the French, if he can avoid it.
 

Eurofed

Banned
If by the Prussians we mean the Hohenzollerns, the landed junkers, and the army, they're less in control of the Prussian state than at any time since Jena. The bigger objection is that the liberals were distinctly uncomfortable with Habsburg absolutism. OTOH, if they were willing to offer the Prussian king the "crown from the gutter," why not the Austrian emperor? The Habsburgs had a lot more legitimacy in terms of historic leadership of the Reich. Heck, for that matter, so did the Wittlesbachs and the Wettins!

Likewise, if an Habsburg prince adopts the cause of a united Italy, he works just as good as Prince-President of an Italian Federation as Charles Albert.
 
Likewise, if an Habsburg prince adopts the cause of a united Italy, he works as good as Prince-President of an Italian Federation as Charles Albert or Pius IX.

Thats a big yesbut. Yesbut, the Habsburgs were always perceived in Italy as a foreign dynasty, whereas the Savoyards were one of the only native dynasties to truly survive and distinguish itself, and the Papacy is a sacred Italian institution.

Maybe a Tuscan Habsburg? The problem is that even though Leopold II tried pretty hard to accomodate the revolutionaries, most of them turned against him and forced him out of the country.

Could we get the Italian liberals to rally behind Habsburg Tuscany? We probably need two conditions: 1. the Piedmontese are paralyzed for some reason, and 2. the Austrian Habsburgs aren't the big bad enemy of the Italian nation. That will take some doing.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Thats a big yesbut. Yesbut, the Habsburgs were always perceived in Italy as a foreign dynasty, whereas the Savoyards were one of the only native dynasties to truly survive and distinguish itself, and the Papacy is a sacred Italian institution.

Maybe a Tuscan Habsburg? The problem is that even though Leopold II tried pretty hard to accomodate the revolutionaries, most of them turned against him and forced him out of the country.

Could we get the Italian liberals to rally behind Habsburg Tuscany? We probably need two conditions: 1. the Piedmontese are paralyzed for some reason, and 2. the Austrian Habsburgs aren't the big bad enemy of the Italian nation. That will take some doing.

It just took some moderate liberal concessions from Charles Albert and Pius IX to turn them into perceived champions of liberalism and Italian unity, despite the previous thoroughly reactionary record of the Savoy (including pre-1848 Charles Albert) and the Popes.

Italian liberals were so famished for liberal reforms and national unity that *any* prince that takes such a banner shall be hailed as a hero. If anything, the Habsburg had a better record of not-so-reactionary administration than the Savoy, Borboun, and Popes. They were perceived as an enemy only insofar as they stood against liberalism and national unity. If they change their stance, mainstream perception of them can change very quickly.

Much like the Hohenzollern, the Savoia in this scenario would need to be bought into the plan by a mix of concessions that make them second-in-command within Italy, promises of future dynastic compensations abroad, and revolutionary pressure from below.
 
Well, the Habsburg hyper-wank if fun, but it will scare the bejoyzus out of the French, no? Therefore, maybe not the best scenario to create the German-French bloc.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Franz Josef is a mellow enough character, from a traditional enough dynasty, that he may reassure Tsar Nikolai. The British always considered him a damned reasonable old chap. And he's really not the type to bring down blood and iron on the French, if he can avoid it.

Yes, one beauty of the "Habsburg genius" 1848-victory scenario is that it effectively paralyzes intervention by Russia. If the Habsburg decide to split their lands in three parts, and the other German and Italian states decide to rally behind two of them to unity, the Tsar has no real say in the matter, short of starting a general war as an aggressor, even if liberal revolutionary pressure from below is part of the process.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Well, the Habsburg hyper-wank if fun, but it will scare the bejoyzus out of the French, no? Therefore, maybe not the best scenario to create the German-French bloc.

Admittedly yes, but it would be an otherwise relatively painless way to make 1848 triumph in the CP bloc. Of course, much would also depend on whether the Habsburg bloc takes a conciliatory stance towards France (e.g. letting it have its way in the Low Countries and Iberia to compensate).
 
Admittedly yes, but it would be an otherwise relatively painless way to make 1848 triumph in the CP bloc. Of course, much would also depend on whether the Habsburg bloc takes a conciliatory stance towards France (e.g. letting it have its way in the Low Countries and Iberia to compensate).

Well, Napoleon III did cooperate very well with the Habsburgs IOTL. If he comes to power ITTL, we may have a pretty good scenario for flowers and gold instead of blood and iron. Louis Napoleon and Franz Josef are more or less constitutionally opposed to cataclysmic wars for continental hegemony.
 
As mentioned above, a Grossdeutschland is going to be the most dominant in terms of population, economy and war potential. That causes problems in that, once its formed, the nationalists know they can get what they want from other powers. You really need a deal over A-L: what if they get France to agree to a plebiscite in return for (a) a military alliance (b) if it votes to join Germany, Germany has to buy it for an overly generous price and (c) not to lose the place in a war. That might be the right combination of fear and face-saving to get France to sign up to it.

I also think Russian warmongering would be enough to cement a "brotherhood of nations" spirit between France and Germany.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Well, Napoleon III did cooperate very well with the Habsburgs IOTL. If he comes to power ITTL, we may have a pretty good scenario for flowers and gold instead of blood and iron. Louis Napoleon and Franz Josef are more or less constitutionally opposed to cataclysmic wars for continental hegemony.

Yes and no. Louis Napoleon also had a record for poorly-thought foreign-policy schemes to aggrandize France that often exploded in his face. He would not knowingly start a general war for continental hegemony, but he may unwittingly blunder his way in to one.

He did have spells of good relations with the Habsburg. He also plotted to undo their supremacy in Germany and Italy, and replace it with a constellation of states under French hegemony, by using Piedmont and Prussia as proxies, and both times things went wholly different from what he planned.

Best chance would be if France and the Habsburg bloc somehow reach an unspoken agreement to respect each other's sphere of influence, with their border set on the Rhine and Alps. And France can reap compensations by hegemonizing Iberia and the Low Countries, and going on colonial expansion.
 
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Don't forget the Schleswig mess. IT, much more than A-L, was a sore point almost from the start. I can see Britain going at war for it, and what would France do in this case?
 

Eurofed

Banned
Don't forget the Schleswig mess. IT, much more than A-L, was a sore point almost from the start. I can see Britain going at war for it, and what would France do in this case?

A compromise may be reached that keeps Britain out of the mess, with or without a war between Germany and Denmark, such as the latter keeping (at least part of) Schleswig.

The icing on the cake is that if butterflies align well (i.e. Sweden supports Denmark) we may also get a united Scandinavia out of the crisis.
 
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