The Sino-Japanese war was also a Chinese civil war, and I am not referring to the CCP and the GMD. Chiang Kai-Shek was not actually the chosen successor to Sun Yat-sen, but was rathr a military leader who had former students in key positions throughout the GMD. A number of civilian leaders in the GMD used the Japanese invasion to their own advantage to remove military control over the party, but in so doing became puppets of the Japanese. Wang Jingwei is sometimes thought to have believed the Japanese were a temporary half-measure, one that he could use to overthrow the the military, the warlords, and the more radical communists and institute a Leninist model of government, though perhaps a little more capitalistic and nationalistic. Japan bit off more than it could chew, the Chinese people fed their daily stories from Chiang and the Communists lambasted Wang and the Japanese aligned government as puppets and traitors. As Japanese atrocities continued, Wang became an increasingly uncomfortable man and later died due to complications of his injuries. With his death, the collaboration government lost all sympathy and legitimacy, which it did retain in some measure during Wang's life, and defections occurred en mass.
Without foreign interference, the Japanese would never be able to conquer China, but they may be able to effectively give Wang's government the edge. Should Chiang die instead of Wang, and the war remain strictly a Japanese and Chinese affair, I would strongly suspect the possibility of success given a few years. However it would still be an up hill battle, and the Soviets were always trying to interfere in politics regarding Mao and Chiang's civil war. As a result, the idea of no outside intervention is practically nonexistent unless you make the war go worse for the Soviet Union in Europe.
So could China survive? Yes, without a doubt. Japan was never an existential threat to China, the Chinese just like to remember their war of resistance as one of resistance against conquerors rather than the largely aimless expedition of shifting war aims in support of a regime that had an uneven relationship with Tokyo at best. Even if their ultimate objective was realized, after a few years Wang would seek to establish himself separately from Tokyo. Its a well known tactic to promise your allies anything in wartime, but deny them everything when you are able to resist if the prior was brought about by duress and warfare. Best case scenario for Japan in this case would be to have Wang's government remain part of their Asian system as a junior partner, worst case scenario sees Japan lose its armies in endless warfare with the navy eventually holding only enclaves as Chiang and Mao move closer to victory. On a horrifyingly related note, Japan was heavily investing in nuclear weapons, and were perhaps closer than anyone really understands. That means that nuclear weapons may decide the war in an irony of history as well.
Since China's survival is all but determined, the real question would just be about the character of China at the end of the road. Would Wang be second Sun Yat-sen, or would he prove the incapable man of low character that he is often seen as since he lost the war? That goes a long way in determining how China turns out if Japan wins. The GMD always believed that holding cities were the path to success, but Mao proved them wrong by mobilizing the countryside. If the collaboration government only focuses on the cities, then they've lost. Even if the war is won over their enemies, it will not be won with the people.