Can-Challenge: Tories win in '93

With a POD of May 1993, have either Jean Charest or Kim Campbell win a minority government in October for the PCs. Bonus if it's Campbell.
 
Here's a possible configuration...

Canadian federal election, Oct. 25, 1993
295 Commons seats

Progressive Conservative: 114 seats, 36.2%
Liberal: 103 seats, 33.1%
BQ: 51 seats 13.5%
Reform: 15 seats, 8.5%
NDP: 12 seats, 7.7%
Incumbent Prime Minister: Kim Campbell (PC)
 
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Ok how 'bout this?

Early in May 1993, Mulroney begins to get cold feet in regards to his coming retirement. After talking to a number of yes men he begins to seriously consider running in the upcoming 1993 election. However his attempts to "un-retire" are met with hostility leading him to concede to be regulated to one of the participants in the upcoming leadership convention.

Campbell takes Mulroney's change of heart badly and launches an energetic campaign along with a few others. Unsurprisingly Campbell wins the convention on the first ballot. Promising a "New Day For Canada" there's an even bigger wave of "Campbellmania" than in OTL. With only a few months until the upcoming election Campbell begins to prepare for what's sure to be a tough contest.

Mulroney's betrayal having left a bad taste in her mouth, Campbell is determined to come out from Mulroney's shadow. This means a radical reshuffling of her campaign managers, ditching old Mulroney loyalists and bringing in fresh blood. Veteran campaign manager Rick Anderson is lured from the Reform party through a few dirty tricks that turn the more stalwart reformers against him. Anderson proves to be an excellent campaigner and oversees the publication of the PC "Canadian Agenda" platform before that of the Liberals.

Despite having capitalized on her initial momentum and run a far better campaign, Campbell still struggles during the election to get out from under Mulroney's shadow. Nevertheless by making Mulroney out to be a pariah, Campbell gains some traction, and this coupled with other factors and a good performance in the debates leads to a narrow minority government for the Tories, who have to rely on the Western based Reform party for support. Campbell, in order to promote stability forms a coalition cabinet with Reform and pursues what is effectively a Reformed Agenda during her initial term in office.
 
That's an excellent scenario. I will likely use this as a TL in the future. ;) I cannot see the Liberals much below 100 seats or the PCs above 120. Campbell will have to be Indigo, not Turquoise if she wants Manning onside, which post-Mulroney won't be much of an issue.
 
Here's a possible configuration...

Canadian federal election, Oct. 25, 1993
295 Commons seats

Progressive Conservative: 114 seats, 36.2%
Liberal: 103 seats, 33.1%
BQ: 51 seats 13.5%
Reform: 15 seats, 8.5%
NDP: 12 seats, 7.7%
Incumbent Prime Minister: Kim Campbell (PC)

That government won't last long, Rogue. Chretien and Bouchard may hate each other, but they'll both have their own good reasons for knocking Campbell down, and the two of them here have the seats to do it. If this is the government, it lasts a year, 18 months tops.

Better way here is to have the PCs get more traction in Quebec and gift a few more seats to the NDP and/or Reform, thus making it harder for the Liberal/BQ coalition to knock down Campbell.
 
Reconfigured. Together PCs and Reform can form a majority coalition government, though a formal pact with Reform Cabinet ministers would be suicide for Manning.

295 Commons seats

Progressive Conservative: 127 seats
Liberal: 93 seats
Reform: 36 seats
BQ: 30 seats
NDP: 15 seats

Incumbent Prime Minister: Kim Campbell (PC)
 
^ That's better. A Reform-Liberal deal borders on ASB, so there Campbell will have some breathing room. I'm not sure how the Reform would get 36 seats without the Conservative implosion, mind you. (I still think it would be best if you had Broadbent stay on for a while longer, and have him lead the NDP in 1993, probably ensuring they stay at 20-25 seats.)
 
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