Can Canada be a superpower?

POD before 1900 but...

British peace terms in August 1814:

"Within a week, Lord Castlereagh sent precise instructions which confirmed the worst fears of the Americans. The Indian boundary line was to follow the line of the Treaty of Greenville and beyond it neither nation was to acquire land. The United States was asked, in short, to set apart for the Indians in perpetuity an area which comprised the present States of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois, four-fifths of Indiana, and a third of Ohio. But, remonstrated Gallatin, this area included States and Territories settled by more than a hundred thousand American citizens. What was to be done with them? 'They must look after themselves,' was the blunt answer."
http://books.google.com/books?id=swYOAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA249

See http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/greenvil.asp for the text of the Treaty of Greenville and http://score.rims.k12.ca.us/score_lessons/treaty_greenville/media/treatygreenvillemap.gif for a map of the Greenville line.

To insist on this 1795 line in 1814 seems amazingly unrealistic in retrospect, but remember that in 1814 "Britain and Indians still held Michilimackinac, Prarie du Chien on the upper Mississippi, and most of Michigan and Wisconsin. With Wellington's veterans preparing to embark from French ports and the United States on the verge of bankruptcy, fighting its most unpopular war, Britain and the Indians became optimistic about making territorial adjustments." J. Leitch Wright, Jr., *Britain and the American Frontier 1783-1815* (Athens: University of Georgia Press 1975), p. 167.

So if this Indian boundary state is created, it will be a de facto British protectorate and may ultimately be formally admitted to Canada. No reason a Canada that includes Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, etc. can't be a superpower...
treatygreenvillemap[1].gif
 
The U.S., bankrupt or not, would never have accepted such a treaty, especially after Andrew Jackson's great victory at New Orleans. It could muster far more troops, including frontier militias, than the British could possibly send across the ocean. It had an advanced, for its time, armaments industry (if you don't believe me on this, go to https://www.academia.edu/8058237/American_Arms_Manufacturing_and_the_Onset_of_the_War_of_1812). Also, by 1814 the U.S. Army had developed a higher level of professionalism than at the start of the war and really competent military leaders had emerged. Britain would be far from its logistical base...the U.S. logistical base would be everywhere, and eager to help against the invader. The result of a continuation of the war, if it went on for more than a year, would probably have been the permanent U.S. conquest of Canada.
 
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The U.S., bankrupt or not, would never have accepted such a treaty, especially after Andrew Jackson's great victory at New Orleans. It could muster far more troops, including frontier militias, than the British could possibly send across the ocean. It had an advanced, for its time, armaments industry (if you don't believe me on this, go to https://www.academia.edu/8058237/American_Arms_Manufacturing_and_the_Onset_of_the_War_of_1812). Also, by 1814 the U.S. Army had developed a higher level of professionalism than at the start of the war and really competent military leaders had emerged. Britain would be far from its logistical base...the U.S. logistical base would be everywhere, and eager to help against the invader. The result of a continuation of the war, if it went on for more than a year, would probably have been the permanent U.S. conquest of Canada.

Thre United States nearing the end of the War of 1812 was in shambles. They were losing more soldiers to disease and desertion than they could recruit, they were hauling gold across the Appalachians by wagon train just to stay solvent, the government was broke, most of the last issue of bonds went unsold and inflation was wreaking havoc on the economy.

If the war drags on another year, the British tighten the blockade around America, launch another bigger army down Lake Champlain and pull ahead in the naval race in Lake Ontario. America lacks the ability to seize either Kingston or Montreal, so they'll never annex Canada without the fall of those lynchpins. Wih control of Lake Ontario the Americans will have a harder time supporting their forces in Niagara and continue to be pressed there. And the Brits will start a new naval facility at Turkey Point on Lake Erie and make a play for that lake too. The Brits will continue to win in the far west raiding with their Indian allies down through Wisconsin and northern Louisiana, and the remnants of the force from New Orleans will continue to occupy forts along the Gulf Coast.

America did very good getting that war ended where it did, a year delay makes the war that much more difficult to win for them.

@David T
The Brits will never get the Grenville Line, and I'd be very leery of the Indian buffer state. Both would cause a long running sore with America would be unpalatable in the long run. They'll be traded for gains elsewhere, or in the case of the protectorate, simply spun off as a new colony (Upper Canada 2: Electric Boogaloo).

I could see Britain getting some combination of the Maumee-Wabash-Illinois Rivers as a border though.
 
Thre United States nearing the end of the War of 1812 was in shambles. They were losing more soldiers to disease and desertion than they could recruit, they were hauling gold across the Appalachians by wagon train just to stay solvent, the government was broke, most of the last issue of bonds went unsold and inflation was wreaking havoc on the economy.

If the war drags on another year, the British tighten the blockade around America, launch another bigger army down Lake Champlain and pull ahead in the naval race in Lake Ontario. America lacks the ability to seize either Kingston or Montreal, so they'll never annex Canada without the fall of those lynchpins. Wih control of Lake Ontario the Americans will have a harder time supporting their forces in Niagara and continue to be pressed there. And the Brits will start a new naval facility at Turkey Point on Lake Erie and make a play for that lake too. The Brits will continue to win in the far west raiding with their Indian allies down through Wisconsin and northern Louisiana, and the remnants of the force from New Orleans will continue to occupy forts along the Gulf Coast.

America did very good getting that war ended where it did, a year delay makes the war that much more difficult to win for them.

@David T
The Brits will never get the Grenville Line, and I'd be very leery of the Indian buffer state. Both would cause a long running sore with America would be unpalatable in the long run. They'll be traded for gains elsewhere, or in the case of the protectorate, simply spun off as a new colony (Upper Canada 2: Electric Boogaloo).

I could see Britain getting some combination of the Maumee-Wabash-Illinois Rivers as a border though.

First, the agreement would prevent the U.S. from moving into vast territories that settlers were already looking at--territories that would seem all the more important under blockade conditions. Second, the Battle of New Orleans would have been a game changer in terms of morale. Third, the Brits were weary from their long war with Napoleon. Fourth, you are not addressing the issue of American self-sufficiency in armaments production.
 
First, the agreement would prevent the U.S. from moving into vast territories that settlers were already looking at--territories that would seem all the more important under blockade conditions. Second, the Battle of New Orleans would have been a game changer in terms of morale. Third, the Brits were weary from their long war with Napoleon. Fourth, you are not addressing the issue of American self-sufficiency in armaments production.

Why does lousy morale only affect Britain and not America? America was very sick of the war, look at the opposition in New England, it was literally called a 'ruinous and unhappy war' because of the damage it did to the New England economy.

And America can be self sufficient all she wants in arms, there's nobody to arm. The army was being bled away by disease and desertion, they couldn't recruit more than they were losing at the end of the war, let alone of it lasts an additional year.

And how are they paying these soldiers? With the money they don't have? The inflation was destroying wages of everyone, especially soldiers because the pay was so lousy so now it just gets worse.
 
Sorry if I was confusing I didn't mean to imply that Canada should or would have sat out the Great War, what I meant was that it would be beneficial if the wars never happened.
Got it, sorry.

Incidentally there is a part of me that thinks Canada probably should have sat out the Great War. It must be the French part. However, yes, as long as the Great War happens, there's no way the Anglophone majority is going to be neutral.
 
I mentioned Canada as North Korea earlier in this thread, but more seriously, a Communist Canada (let's go with Soviet-style and not the batshit insanity known as Juche or some equally idiotic analogue) could be a major force. It would require a pre-1900 POD, but I think you could have one post-Confederation where Canada gets more immigrants, and eventually has a population millions more than OTL (drawing off the US, Argentina, Brazil, etc.). But to keep things interesting, let's have this Canada fall to communism.

Communist Canada soon becomes the ideal model of a communist state (unlike the Soviets, Maoist China, etc.) and the Canadian economy continues to develop, as well as attracting communists/socialists from around the world. To prevent being easily defeated by the capitalist Americans in the event of a war (the relation is tense, but not like North/South Korea), the Canadians create the Mid-Canada Development Corridor to build a solid band of resource exploitation, agriculture, and industry well away from the American border.

With 50 million people (Canada has a tax on childlessness, as well as supports working mothers), modern Canada is a major player in global politics and one of the major promoters of global socialism and communism (especially in Latin America), although many communist states don't consider Canadian communism to be true communism.
 

Guardian54

Banned
EDIT: Wait, wtf? This had no necro warning box, bit it's been 3 months since the last post? Well, sorry then... but I don't think deleting a new post un-bumps the thread, does it?

Both of my Canada wank TLs that will go on to make Canada a superpower are classified as ASB for good reason. OTL Canada simply lacked the mindset and willpower to have any real hope of bootstrapping itself to superpower status.

My two TLs are on the following premises, which should tell you exactly how batshit insane Canada-as-superpower actually is:

2) Confederation Gift:
A sufficiently advanced being (or God) gives them an AI-controlled 39th century warship as a gift on July 1, 1867. The AI is reasonably responsive to discussion and can provide certain insights providing prerequisite techs are known and reasonable experience is had in those techs.

1) SI Archives:
Ancient genetically engineered entity (named Crutch himself Kane) due to certain embarrassing reasons (too spoilery for now) decides that mid-19th century Canada is the best place his offspring can basically hijack to their own interests by being businesspeople. The life expectancy of his offspring with a normal human is unknown and not very predictable, but as Kane is under a thousand years younger than Mitochondrial Eve...
A leadership cadre of geniuses who will at least live centuries is how insanely consistent and forward-looking you need Canada's leadership to be to fulfill the following bolded minimum conditions to become a superpower!
  • Bootstrap industrialization in the United Province of Canada in the mid-19th century.
  • Someone needs to speak on behalf of the Maritimes at Charlottetown and being requested by them by name for the Quebec Conference. This should get better inter-province relations. Convince PEI to join from the start in 1867 by coughing up much of the cash to buy out absentee landlords.
  • Maintain Maritimes Industrialization, or at least a controlled decline, post-Confederation. You need that shipbuilding industry alive for the future.
  • Canadian Pacific Railroad built in early-mid 1870s. Pay for this with the lack of a recession in the Maritimes.
  • Use the North China Famine of 1876-1879 to import Chinese peasant women for the Prairies. As with any other frontier, "you'd be surprised what people will marry here" to quote Arose Out the Azure. Families were selling their daughters to human traffickers in hopes they would be able to leave the stricken regions alive, so "Here's a basic education in English, those who pass muster will get to marriage interviews with settlers who each have a homestead of ___ acres, you are housed and fed by the government in the interim" is manna from heaven for their standards.
  • Millet, cannot be emphasized enough that fast-growing, hardy, drought-tolerant millet is THE grain of choice for the semi-arid Prairies, and the farmer always has SOMETHING left in the field at season's end, even if it's an early frost after a dry summer and they only get silage. This requires a shift away from Western European dietary touchiness and pride. Sorghum can potentially be good where the growing season is long enough.
  • Bison, put the Plains Natives to use in figuring out how to herd bison (you don't really, you just make them not want to go elsewhere) as they're much lower maintenance than cattle.
  • Chain Bicycles, poverty relief today has the bicycle as a crucial tool for transporting cargo.
  • (SECULAR) Multiculturalism, Given the success of stuff like Buffalo Bill's Wild West Show, Canada can see that exotic cultural products have a market in Europe. Proso millet can be brought in as part of a West African cultural identity for blacks leaving the United States, and eventually Little Millet can be brought in from India, as a crop that will grow at 3000m altitudes and thus do well enough in British Columbia's higher areas. Inviting Sitting Bull and his band to remain in Canada (instead of returning to the US) and see how whites and natives can cooperate and prosper together would be a real coup because...
  • Anti-Americanism, Not hard to maintain post-1867 if the US stages a few more outrages, like assassinating Sitting Bull. Making good treatment of minorities a matter of national pride dating back to the Underground Railroad helps.
Annexing Hawaii is ideal but not crucial.
And these are just the pre-1900 requirements! Post-1900 to 1936 you have:
  • Submachine Guns and Semiautomatic Rifles, these make for an absurd firepower advantage in trench warfare if you bother training your army at all.
  • Bahamas, 1911, Accept their request to join Confederation. Tamp down complaints over the black refugees from the US in this timeframe by citing Canada's pride in the Underground Railroad compared to the "backwards and tribalist Americans" or something similar.
  • Mexico, circa 1912-1914, label this a humanitarian effort to begin with, then de facto puppet the country after Huerta commits enough outrages or provokes you enough to stomp on. By doing this you double Canada's effective population, though it's just an alliance instead of outright union... for now.
  • Armoured cars, then tanks, Armoured cars can begin with a domestic tractor industry, for protected support weapons, and continuous track tractors would be combined with armoured cars to make tanks.
  • Convoy Warfare Doctrines, other than the aircraft carriers, the main focus should be on effective freighters (such as standardization, containerization, etc.) and effective escorts (forward throwing breech-autoloading mortars mounted several to a turret may be cheaper in materials per shell than spigot mortars?)
  • Naval Aviation, a recognition that reaching out to molest the other guy before he can molest you, and to keep him at too long a range to hit you while you whittle him down, is the best plan, will lead to aircraft carrying bombs. Aerial torpedoes follow, and of course fighters and anti-air mountings at sea. Of course, early on this is conceptual war-gaming only.
  • Veterans' Benefits and Education, fulfilling promises to make ti a country worthy of heroes is worth a lot of street cred to average citizens, and help keep things stable even during the Depression after the years of merriment and attempting to forget the Great War.
Buying the Danish Virgin Islands is ideal but not required. Grabbing Newfoundland during their late 1920s (IIRC) economic crisis is ideal too.
  • Rearmament, get on the bandwagon early, call up the veterans who are willing to fight again and have no crucial technical skills, and recruit the unemployed.
  • Import Jews, They're generally well-educated, cultured, and though there might be headaches over circumcision (drastic legal measures were taken against the conspicuous consumption of foot-binding when you imported the Chinese peasant women) get them over, preferably before their wealth is confiscated. this provides a cash and talent injection.
  • Spanish Intervention, make sure the Republicans win, sell it as making sure if Germany decides to attack France again the French won't be backstabbed. Bypass the neutrality patrols with legal fictions and spycraft (read: go chat up the French and British admirals for a copy of the schedules). Do it quickly, and have things mostly stabilized (with new forces arriving to take over peacekeeping duties) by autumn 1937.
  • And a whole lot of other stuff I'll get to writing eventually.

Canada as a superpower is definitely possible, however, it is exceedingly improbable.
 
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Just to point out, It wasn't Canadians that either named my Bonny Province, nor invented The Great Game. ;) Culture Appropriators.

As for being a Superpower? Economically no doubt. Militarily? In which branch? That's how it would cut with Canada, one of the services would be nigh on feared by the world, and the other two respected. If I was the shot caller, I would make our Air Force the cream of NATO, and feared by those who harbour ill will to the Mapleleaf. The Navy would be a force to recon with in our waters, beyond that, Fleet support with a jump-jet/helo carrier (which would have Arctic operations capabilities). The Army, would be small but incredibly effective anywheres, and well equipped.

Superpower is a relative term as I see it. So long as you can project real economic power, as well as a sufficient military response to a threat where it is no longer a threat. I'd call that a Superpower.
 
  • Bootstrap industrialization in the United Province of Canada in the mid-19th century.
  • Speaking on behalf of the Maritimes at Charlottetown and being requested by them by name for the Quebec Conference. Convinces PEI to join from the start in 1867 by coughing up much of the cash to buy out absentee landlords.
  • Maintain Maritimes Industrialization, or at least a controlled decline, post-Confederation. You need that shipbuilding industry alive for the future.
  • Canadian Pacific Railroad built in early-mid 1870s. Pay for this with the lack of a recession in the Maritimes.

This is the biggest crux to Confederation, Canadian Industrialization came about with the National Policy in 1879 and made the Maritimes an economic sinkhole. They became cut off from their main markets of the Caribbean/New England/UK trade circle, because of the tariffs imposed in the National Policy, which moved their main market to Montreal, followed by the interprovincial Tariffs (which are still in place today), which made it unviable for producers to sell from here so they packed up and moved to Ontario and Quebec.

The shipbuilding industry was in a process of moving to Steam and Steel, but due to pressures from Canada to get rail connections, the Maritime governments poured money away from incentives, and into rail connections and spurs to link up and give us the Grand Trunk, instead of a single consolidated effort to build one line under one authority. As well with the implementation of the National Policy, Canada also divided it's shipping to seasons. It's Summertime port became Montreal, and it's Wintertime port became Saint John. This did multiple damages to Maritime shipping and shipbuilding, chiefly it knocked Halifax out as a port of call for most shipping outside of regional, it also made Saint John a port of call half the time of the year, and propped Montreal shipping up by the defection of traffic from closer ports. It also dealt a serious blow to the ship building industry by removing the biggest market of buyers. As it is the shipbuilding industry never left, it just shrunk to handle the local demand.

It was Maritime Steel and Lumber that built a good chunk of that Railroad, as well as loans from Maritime Banks.
 
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The only way I see Canada becoming a superpower is if the US falls into civil war during the Great Depression and New England + Midwests ends up joining Canada.

The problem with this si that the new Canada isn't Canada it is american because you know the american states far outnumber canadas population the Quebecois will scream bloody murder and I doubt all the people in the remaining provinces will enjor being 2nd fiddle to the new american provinces
 

Lusitania

Donor
Canada could be a world power with the correct POD here is my take.

1) Treaty of Paris 1783 provides large incentive for loyalist to settle in remaining British colonies including paying for transport and compensation for lost property left behind. 125,000-150,000 loyalist settle in canada compared to 75,000 iOTL.
2) while Catholics not given same rights as Protestant in UK. They are given same rights in BNA. Increased British catholic and French catholic migration west.
3) war of 1812 delayed till 1814. Initial American success captures lower and upper Canada by end of 1814. U.K. sends Wellington with 50,000 troops to Canada in summer of 1815 after Napoleon France defeated. Americans defeated and pushed out of Canada and Wellington invades US capturing most of New York State and cutting US into two. Peace treaty results in US loosing all lands around Great Lakes and Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and dakotas. This results in Canada gaining a lot of agricultural land around and south of Great Lakes. UK gives all discharged Napoleonic wars veterans land in Canada in lieu of pension.
4) US and UK do not trade and immigration from UK is prohibited by US. Violence against British citizens in US results in secound loyalists migration to Canada. From 1816-1840 when trade relations begin normalizing tens of thousands British citizens migrate to Canada. British investors locked out of US pour $ into Canada. Canadian railways start at same time as American and British.
5) Canada population reaches 30% of US and continues to keep pace while it begins attracting settlers from other European nations.
6) British North American act of 1848 grants self rule to Canada plus places all Caribbean British colonies as Canadian provinces. US protests feeling it sorounded by Canada.
7) Oregon territory war between Britain and US renews animosity between the two countries. US able to capture all land south of Columbia River but British navy able to defend "Washington state" and BC by bringing thousand of Indian troops to defend territory. This is followed Indian settlements in west coast and Caribbean and slowly into test of Canada.
8) 1860 trans Canada railway completed from Vancouver to Halifax. Canada population reaches 50% of US.
9) ACW last two years more due to British/Canadian supplying confederate with weapons and supplies.
10) US coniinues policies of anti British and isolationis, limits immigration to Protestant Europeans with little to no Eastern Europe migration. Largest group able to migrate to US is German and Nordic.
11) between 1860-1880 Canadian parties and west coast is filled by British , Southern European and Easter European settlers.
12) American-Spanish war brings in Canada and British empire on Spain side. America not alone to defeat both and Cuba and Puerto Rico become Canadian protectorates with independence frustrated. Guam and Philippines become Canadian protectorates also.
13) Canada us population is 3/4 of US and GDP is 60% of US by 1900. US population at 60 million compared to 72million iOTL.
 
The Canadian economy is dominated by the American economy, subject to mineral export prices (the drop in oil prices has hit it hard not to mention the pain numerous industries have felt in the last decade alone with increases in infrastructure accidents as reinvestment has not happened), lacks habitable land to carry the population needed to punch with the big boys (imagine Siberia trying to attract immigrants), and its socialist practices has actually led to urban decay (failures in sewers, streets, and a decline in services). The only part of the Canadian economy doing well right now is real estate and banking (loans, etc.). That doesn't sound positive for the coming years.

Canada has made foreign investment difficult (just ask Taiwan and China), is far more focused on carbon taxes and income taxes driving domestic cash out of country (it was once a tax haven), and has driven up the cost of living so much most people can't even afford a house. I was in Vancouver recently. Regardless of whether the neighborhood was upper, middle, or lower class, they all had boarded up and condemned buildings throughout. The average home price was $700-900,000 with the median income being $40,000. A recent 15% tax was recently passed on home sales driving up home prices even more. I saw homeless everywhere, even an individual shooting up in downtown Vancouver.

Investment in their military has fallen degrading its capabilities (ships rusting, barracks decaying, even relying on foreign militaries to provide air support for their deployed forces due to cost) and political centralization has stripped base commanders of the power to turn things around. Some commanders don't even know the state of their bases and materiel.

If Canada wants to be a superpower, it needs a warmer climate, a more diversified economy, and a change in governmental economic practice and rule. You need to break it from the UK late in the nineteenth or early twentieth and do more to draw immigration and investment. That will be incredibly hard.

I couldn't, despite my best efforts, stop myself from responding to this post, although I am sure it must be either a joke or a troll...
Just a few points of fact to counter this ridiculous set of comments:
1)There are immense areas of "habitable" land in Canada that are sparsely populated. Suggesting that Canada is for the most part Siberian in nature is silly at best
2)I'm not sure exactly which "socialist practices" you refer to when contending that Canada's urban centres are suffering from "urban decay", (and I am no socialist) I have lived all over Canada and am well read, educated, and very in tune with current & historical events, both domestically and globally, and would be interested to see where all the broken streets are awash in sewage from the failed infrastructure and industrial accidents, and what decline in which services is taking place, and from whom this perspective is seen as valid....
3)Unfortunately your understanding of what drives the Canadian economy, what it's built on, and the way it approaches foreign investment is appallingly uninformed
4)Carbon taxes and income taxes are completely different beasts and are impossible to call out as having too much focus put on them despite my views on both
5)I know Vancouver very well. The median income is approx $80K, not $40K. It is well reported that housing prices there are absurd, similarly to Toronto and other cities around the world of similar stature. I'm not sure where all the neighborhoods are that are riddled with boarded up houses but in my experience there is not a lot of real estate in Greater Vancouver, or its suburbs, that is not part of a bigger plan regardless of it's current condition. Vancouver has an disproportionately large homeless population that is in large part due to the mild year-round climate. I suppose its better to be homeless in 10 C rain that -30 C snow. And I have seen people shooting up on the street in at least 10 different cities around the world, so this is not exclusive to Van.
6)The 15% tax to which you refer is only for foreign buyers in an attempt to curb the skyrocketing prices of real estate being driven up by wealthy speculators, not applicable to domestic wannabe home buyers.
7)Military spending is gradually increasing, with the purchase of new combat jets and the building of new naval vessels forthcoming. Canada is ranked 26th in the world by Global Firepower, which is pretty good considering we have one border, that border is shared with our closest ally which is the worlds most militarily powerful country, and we do not project aggressive military action overseas (and only participate in said in conjunction with our multi-national alliances) There are no ships rusting at the jetty due to lack of maintenance, and are not settling to the bottom beside rows of rotting barracks on depleted and looted military bases. There are many "base commanders" that wouldn't even offer you a blindfold and a cigarette at dawn before they yelled "fire" for such an insulting and ridiculous statement.

Canada is obviously not a super-power, and it does not have nor ever has had the ambition or ability to become one. Especially if it was to exist in the ruined and broken wasteland in which you see it...
 
I couldn't, despite my best efforts, stop myself from responding to this post, although I am sure it must be either a joke or a troll...
What this guy said.

I hate to respond to a necro'd thread, but characterizing Canada as a Siberian socialist hellhole with no economy and where nobody can afford a home is so delusional as to defy the imagination.
 
What this guy said.

I hate to respond to a necro'd thread, but characterizing Canada as a Siberian socialist hellhole with no economy and where nobody can afford a home is so delusional as to defy the imagination.

I don't know, it could work. Obviously the other necessary step would be to build a canal along the 49th parallel because then instead of the U.S. just walking across the border it would be basically like Operation Sea Lion and Canada could be Britain.
 
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