Can Austria-Hungary survive defeat in WWI?

[Adora Basil Winterpock]

I wonder if there is any way for A-H to survive as a dual monarchy after the defeat of the CP, especially Germany. Possible ATL I’ve considered:

- Romania staying neutral
- More sucessful Caporetto offensive knocking out Italy (white peace) in 1917
- Then separate peace with the entente in spring/summer 1918
I’m sure A-H would at the very minimum be required to give up the south slavic areas (with the possible exception of Slovenia) to Serbia, Tyrol and Istria to Italy and Galicia to Poland.

Thoughts? How would a surviving A-H change Europe?

 

[Lalli]

Really hard unless war end earlier or A-H manage get out. Perhaps latest would be that secret negotiation attempts between A-H and Entente not come out too early.

 

[Glenn239]

The Austrian Empire could only survive a defeat if the Allies themselves had decided it would continue.

 

[Hastings]

I don't think you even need that much. The Italians were reluctant to do hard negotiation, but privately expressed willingness to settle for as little as Trento and Aquila (not including Trieste). One problem is lack of commitment, Austrians were reluctant to cede anything, French weren't too excited either. Doesn't seem like planned for Serbia or Romania to get anything meaningful as being thankful to be liberated is all they are in a position for. This could potentially work quite well for Austria-Hungary in the medium term. By this time I think even this major success is unlikely to stop Russia spiraling. Germany will lose of course but I could potentially see that being close to OTL. Before any German-allied negotiations finish Russia will be falling and then they may fight on albeit different attitude of trying to improve negotiating position than OTL. At this point if Russia spirals Austria-Hungary will be the strongest state for a while in Central/Eastern Europe and potentially in a good position to get members on the Polish/Ukrainian thrones for Galica (something they had long sort of considered). Romania and even more Serbia are pretty gutted.

 

[DougM]

AH was unstable BEFORE the war, and no empire came out of the war stronger. Arguably only the US was truly stronger post war.
Even GB was weakened by the war.
So the “Government “ of the AH empire may survive (if the allies allow it) but it will fracture into parts,

 

[Comte de Geneve]

IMHO AH cannot survive a complete defeat but that was not in the cards before late Summer 1918 unless Brusilov rolls multiple 6's in 1916 (and that A-H would probably not survive). Any early (1914-15) 'defeat' would have to be ended by a negotiated peace and A-H survives with losses although reforms are critical. By 1918 A-H was not really a free agent and their ultimate fate depended on the Germans forcing a negotiated peace through a successful Kaiser Battle (long shot).

 

[Fehérvári]

I wonder if there is any way for A-H to survive as a dual monarchy after the defeat of the CP

The simplest and most straightforward way to make that happen is avoiding the Sixtus Affair. Without that debacle, the Habsburg Monarchy wouldn't be forced to become subservient to Germany for the rest of the war, which in turn would make the Entente Powers not endorse its dismemberment. In such scenario, Austria-Hungary would likely sign a separate armistice with the Entente in August.

Alternatively, you can make it so, that the Austro-Hungarian fronts remain intact until the end of the war thanks to an earlier decision to not launch any large attacks against Italy in 1918 (sparing men, resources and morale as a result). Austria-Hungary seeks armistice on favourable conditions. Driven by the hope of ending the war much sooner than anticipated, the Entente Powers revaulate their position concerning the fate of the country and accept the Austro-Hungarian offer.

 

[Sasza]

Only it will still lead to the dismemberment of GA. If the Czech go indepent, it will create a very poor country that may fall into revolution.

 

[cjc]

Honestly austria hungary was struggling to stay to gether before the war even started, only lasted as long as it did thanks to the rally around the flag effect war caused, its only hope was a quick, victorious war, a long war, even if it wins was always going to fatality weeken the empire.

 

[Comte de Geneve]

A-H was OK before the war, it needed to not get into a general war. FF knew that a general war would be the death if A-H. There is almost no way for A-H to survive a defeat, it needs to avoid the war.

 

[thezerech]

Contemporary historians have emphasized that nationalism was an overrated, if still significant, factor in the collapse of the Empire. Instead they mostly now argue that the poorly managed strains of total war and battlefield failures eroded the Empire's legitimacy. If the war goes nearly as bad as IOTL, the Empire doesn't have a shot, imo.

It doesn't have the power to resist the Entente, but, maybe, if Russia remains an Empire, they would be unwilling to install a republican form of government, and might insist Hungary, or at a minimum, Austria retain the Habsburgs. Honestly, an Austrian Republic that cannot join a German Republic is bound to be a fucked situation and that the Entente didn't recognize that this would cause problems is astounding.

 

[Evil Crusader]

It doesn't have the power to resist the Entente, but, maybe, if Russia remains an Empire, they would be unwilling to install a republican form of government, and might insist Hungary, or at a minimum, Austria retain the Habsburgs. Honestly, an Austrian Republic that cannot join a German Republic is bound to be a fucked situation and that the Entente didn't recognize that this would cause problems is astounding.

They knew and frankly did not care at all. It also ended up pretty much working, failed painter notwithstanding.

 

[Intosh]

I wonder if there is any way for A-H to survive as a dual monarchy after the defeat of the CP, especially Germany. Possible ATL I’ve considered:

- Romania staying neutral
- More sucessful Caporetto offensive knocking out Italy (white peace) in 1917
- Then separate peace with the entente in spring/summer 1918
I’m sure A-H would at the very minimum be required to give up the south slavic areas (with the possible exception of Slovenia) to Serbia, Tyrol and Istria to Italy and Galicia to Poland.

Thoughts? How would a surviving A-H change Europe?

A lot of people inside the "prison of peoples" wanted to be free or reunited with their brithers and sisters on the other side of the border.

So Austria-Hungary will only stay united if independance or reunification were worst that being under the Habsbourg rule.

 

[anotherlurker]

Late war defeat is OTL, early war defeat would be this abomination. So no, it's victory or bust.

 

[Mikestone8]

A lot of people inside the "prison of peoples" wanted to be free or reunited with their brithers and sisters on the ot - probably the Slovenes as well.

her side of the border.

So Austria-Hungary will only stay united if independance or reunification were worst that being under the Habsbourg rule.

Or if it is not on offer.

After all, if A/H breaks up w/o Germany being first defeated, the Czechs are certain to be gobbled up by the Germans, and probably the Slovenes as well. The Poles and Ukrainians of Galicia would face a similar fate at the hands of the Russians.

If Croatia tried to break away, she would face being carved up between Serbs, Italians and Hungarians. As for the Slovaks nd Rumanians, a separate Hungary is still probably strong enough to defeat them if they rebel. That leaves only the Bosnian Serbs who would clearly benefit by the Monarchy's fall, and they aren't strong enough to bring it down by themselves.

So really it all comes down to the Magyars, Do they resign themselves to a more or less equal partnership with Austria, or take their chances that a very *unequal* partnership with a greater Germany will be better? And the latter would be an almighty gamble.

 

[Fatt Shea]

I wonder if there is any way for A-H to survive as a dual monarchy after the defeat of the CP, especially Germany. Possible ATL I’ve considered:

- Romania staying neutral
- More sucessful Caporetto offensive knocking out Italy (white peace) in 1917
- Then separate peace with the entente in spring/summer 1918
I’m sure A-H would at the very minimum be required to give up the south slavic areas (with the possible exception of Slovenia) to Serbia, Tyrol and Istria to Italy and Galicia to Poland.

Thoughts? How would a surviving A-H change Europe?

They could have gotten out if the Sixtus affair went their way. Or maybe if Germany somehow loses early then they could also still keep their empire. Having the Austrians do better with invading Serbia and defending Gallicia would also help but that might inadvertently make the central powers win

 

[Fatt Shea]

Honestly austria hungary was struggling to stay to gether before the war even started, only lasted as long as it did thanks to the rally around the flag effect war caused, its only hope was a quick, victorious war, a long war, even if it wins was always going to fatality weeken the empire.

You believe they would have fallen before 1918 without a major war?

 

[Garrison]

Their best chance of surviving at least for a while is to issue a slightly more moderate ultimatum to the Serbs and accept when they roll over. Even that is probably only going to buy them a few years. A CP victory would likewise just postpone the internal stresses coming to the fore. A defeat, even in a quick war, is going to destabilize things straight way. I suspect much the same is true of the Russian Empire, the internal issues are just too serious and no one seems to have the wit or the will to deal with them.

 

[Mikestone8]

Honestly Austria Hungary was struggling to stay to gether before the war even started, .

What's the evidence for that? Ok, it's an unedifying scene when Reichsrat deputies throw inkpots at the Speaker, but it takes a lot more than that to make a great state collapse.

 

[Vercigentorix]

If it has successes in the Serbian or Galician campaigns and maybe if Italy and Romania stay neutral then maybe.
Its a big if though.
What`s not an if is the fact that it`s fate would be tied to Germany so the allies have to give them a better peace.