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The Russians would have no problem putting a stop to the Balkan Wars before they started and wouldn't have minded the Balkan states being defeated either

Did Austria-Hungary commit a strategic blunder by not trying harder to prevent the outbreak of the 1st Balkan War and not signaling violent objection to any Balkan League attack on Turkey-in-Europe?

It seems to me the effects of the war were all negative for Austria. Serbia gained combat experience, territory, population and confidence. It satisfied its southward facing goals for the moment. This left Serbia stronger and more focused on its northward-facing, anti-Austrian agenda in Bosnia. It also created occasions for the Russians to practice mobilizing and for arguments by proxy between Russia and Austria.

The point I am quoting from Aphrodite suggests that the Russians were not even hankering for a Balkan League takedown of Turkey in Europe, they preferred the Balkan League to be a northward-facing, not southward facing barrier to Austria.

So, knowing that the Italo-Ottoman War is probably exciting the ambitions of the Balkan states, but unable to restrain Italy, because Italy is an ally, what if the Austrians started to signal to the Balkan states, Russia, indeed all the powers, that it expected the Balkan League to keep its hands off Turkey?

Would that deter the Balkan states from launching the war of 1912?

If it did, how many years of peace in the Balkans would it buy?

Would Romania have any interest in joining any Austrian warnings, out of opposition to Bulgarian aggrandizement?

Imagine that the 1st and 2nd Balkan Wars are avoided as a consequence of Austrian deterrence.

However, come 1914 or 1915 or so and Franz-Ferdinand still goes to Sarajevo on St. Vitus day and still gets assassinated.

Under the changed circumstances, would Austria-Hungary feel compelled to go to war with Serbia or not?

If Austria did feel compelled to war, and this started an alliance chain reaction, how will the larger size of Turkey-in-Europe (still stretching to the Adriatic and including Albania, Novi Bazar, Macedonia and Thrace), affect the course of WWI diplomacy and the warfighting?

Would the changed circumstances make it particularly more likely for the Ottomans to remain neutral or become pro-Entente rather than join in on the CP's side?

Would it make Bulgaria likelier to join the Entente?

But if Bulgaria did that, could the CP tempt Romania to join them, by promising the Romanians southern Dobruja?

Your thoughts?
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