Can a Muslim Sicily be sustained?

With a POD between 970 and 1000 AD, can Muslim rule in Sicily be sustained into modernity? It doesn't have to be the Kalbid Emirate, which I'm fairly sure is doomed.

The obvious answer would seem to be "avert the Normans," but that doesn't solve the problems with other western Islamic states in the medieval period (al-Andalus), namely foundational instability and factionalism with little hope of reinforcements. Especially in Sicily's case you add that they're right on the Pope's doorstep and an obvious target for anyone hot to win Rome's favour by kicking around the Muslims. If the Normans don't come along, someone eventually will.

Can the issues be overcome? Can Sicily remain Muslim in a long-term way? Or is it too late?
 
Modernity is a long ways away from 970, so I won't speak to that.

There's nothing particularly wrong with the Kalbids. The way I see it, the problems are twofold.

1. The Fatimid pivot to Egypt. As long as the Fatimids were in Tunisia, the Kalbids were merely their viceroys in Sicily, and could depend on Fatimid backing. Once the Fatimids invaded egypt, however, Tunisia became another satellite like Sicily - the relationship between Mahdia and Palermo switches from "patron-client" to "fellow vassal." Once Fatimid authority in the west waned, it meant that those former vassals were now competitors, and Sicily could no longer rely on Tunisian manpower without inviting a takeover (as the Zirids attempted in the post-Kalbid era). A less successful Fatimid state - one that fails to conquer Egypt - might actually be better for Sicily. It means a weaker patron, but at least they still have a patron.

2. The failure of the Sicilian Muslims to capitalize on the growth of Mediterranean trade. Don't get me wrong, there was plenty of trading going on at Palermo - Muslim Sicily was a rich country and had a lot of valuable exports. For whatever reason, however, Sicily remained merely a source for goods rather than a conveyor of them, while Pisa and Genoa rose from obscurity in the same period to become major commercial powers. There was no organizational or technical reason why the Sicilians, who certainly had ships, could not have begun plying the sea and putting themselves in the place of the Pisans/Genoese before those cities could rise to prominence. I'm not sure why this never happened - perhaps the richness of the island made it unnecessary, or perhaps there was some other cultural reason, but if the Kalbid state had pursued that path it would have been in a much better position later on. Coming up with a way to approach this problem probably requires a deeper knowledge of the place of commerce with infidels in medieval Muslim thought than I possess.

In the end it may simply be impossible to sustain a Muslim state so near at hand, particularly by the time Europe gets swept up in the crusading spirit.
 
Top