You can imagine a war where Germany is two steps ahead but struggle to base it on the economic, political and military realities.
That is why the German war effort is so studied on the military side as they played a weak hand very well for a surprisingly long time. However in any non-ASB scenario Germany's hand remains weak which is why you can have them make different choices but find each of those choices bears a cost.
Yes, there is a paradox here. If one correct a German inefficiency in a TL, there is an immediate request to have them start performing average in others. Maybe there was a combination of well played hands and a misaligned opponent early on that would also be misaligned facing different German choices.
Imagine a less aggressive early rearmament followed by massive investments in nerve gas industry.