alternatehistory.com

The context behind this is that in the 2015 UK election, a large number of 2010 Lib Dem voters switched to Labour. What if some of them went to the Conservatives instead of Labour?

United Kingdom general election, 2015
y-2015 3%.png

Here is the majority shaded version.

2015 maj 3%.png

The changes for the following are based on the 2010 election

Conservatives 40.7% - up 3.7%
Labour 28.4% - down 1.3%
UKIP 12.9% - up 9.7%
LD 8.1% - down 15.5%
SNP 4.8% - up 3.1%
Green 3.8% - up 2.8%
Others 0.8% - down 2.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% - no change

Conservatives 355 - up 48
Labour 207 - down 51
UKIP 1 - up 1
LD 9 - down 48
SNP 55 - up 49
Green 1 - no change
Others 0 - no change
Plaid Cymru 4 - up 1

Seeing as the OTL 2015 election had inaccurate polling, I've made the polling for this result inaccurate too. The polling ranges for this result would be roughly

Conservative 35% to 38%
Labour 31% to 34%
LDs 8% to 11%
UKIP 11% to 14%
Green 3% to 6%

The following is a list of seats that changed hands

lg-2015 3%.png

Labour to SNP (40)
  • Aberdeen North
  • Aberdeen South
  • Airdrie and Shotts
  • Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
  • Central Ayrshire
  • Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
  • Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
  • Dumfries and Galloway
  • Dundee West
  • Dunfermline and West Fife
  • East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
  • East Lothian
  • East Renfrewshire
  • Edinburgh East
  • Edinburgh North and Leith
  • Edinburgh South West
  • Falkirk
  • Glasgow Central
  • Glasgow North
  • Glasgow North West
  • Glasgow South
  • Glasgow South West
  • Glenrothes
  • Inverclyde
  • Kilmarnock and Loudoun
  • Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
  • Lanark and Hamilton East
  • Linlithgow and East Falkirk
  • Livingston
  • Midlothian
  • Motherwell and Wishaw
  • North Ayrshire and Arran
  • Ochil and South Perthshire
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire North
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire South
  • Rutherglen and Hamilton West
  • Stirling
  • Ochil and South Perthshire
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire North
  • West Dunbartonshire
Liberal Democrat to Conservative (28)
  • Bath
  • Berwick-upon-Tweed
  • Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
  • Brecon and Radnorshire
  • Cheadle
  • Cheltenham
  • Chippenham
  • Colchester
  • Eastbourne
  • Eastleigh
  • Hazel Grove
  • Kingston and Surbiton
  • Lewes
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole
  • North Cornwall
  • North Devon
  • Portsmouth South
  • Solihull
  • Somerton and Frome
  • St Austell and Newquay
  • St Ives
  • Sutton and Cheam
  • Taunton Deane
  • Thornbury and Yate
  • Torbay
  • Twickenham
  • Wells
  • Yeovil
Liberal Democrat to Labour (11)
  • Bermondsey and Old Southwark
  • Birmingham, Yardley
  • Bradford East
  • Brent Central
  • Bristol West
  • Burnley
  • Cardiff Central
  • Hornsey and Wood Green
  • Manchester, Withington
  • Norwich South
  • Redcar
Liberal Democrat to SNP (9)
  • Argyll and Bute
  • Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
  • East Dunbartonshire
  • Edinburgh West
  • Gordon
  • Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
  • North East Fife
  • Ross, Skye and Lochaber
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Labour to Conservative (21)
  • Barrow and Furness
  • Birmingham Northfield
  • Bolton West
  • Bridgend
  • Derby North
  • Derbyshire North East
  • Gower
  • Halifax
  • Hampstead and Kilburn
  • Harrow West
  • Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East
  • Morley and Outwood
  • Newcastle-under-Lyme
  • Plymouth Moor View
  • Southampton, Itchen
  • Telford
  • Tooting
  • Vale of Clwyd
  • Walsall North
  • Westminster North
  • Wrexham
Labour to Plaid Cymru
  • Ynys Môn
Conservative to UKIP (1)
  • Clacton
DUP to UUP (1)
  • South Antrim
Sinn Féin to UUP (1)
  • Fermagh and South Tyrone
Alliance to DUP (1)
  • Belfast East
Credit goes to @Thande for the maps.
Top