Overview
The context behind this is that in the 2015 UK election, a large number of 2010 Lib Dem voters switched to Labour. What if some of them went to the Conservatives instead of Labour?
United Kingdom general election, 2015
Here is the majority shaded version.
The changes for the following are based on the 2010 election
Conservatives 40.7% - up 3.7%
Labour 28.4% - down 1.3%
UKIP 12.9% - up 9.7%
LD 8.1% - down 15.5%
SNP 4.8% - up 3.1%
Green 3.8% - up 2.8%
Others 0.8% - down 2.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% - no change
Conservatives 355 - up 48
Labour 207 - down 51
UKIP 1 - up 1
LD 9 - down 48
SNP 55 - up 49
Green 1 - no change
Others 0 - no change
Plaid Cymru 4 - up 1
Seeing as the OTL 2015 election had inaccurate polling, I've made the polling for this result inaccurate too. The polling ranges for this result would be roughly
Conservative 35% to 38%
Labour 31% to 34%
LDs 8% to 11%
UKIP 11% to 14%
Green 3% to 6%
The following is a list of seats that changed hands
Labour to SNP (40)
United Kingdom general election, 2015
Here is the majority shaded version.
The changes for the following are based on the 2010 election
Conservatives 40.7% - up 3.7%
Labour 28.4% - down 1.3%
UKIP 12.9% - up 9.7%
LD 8.1% - down 15.5%
SNP 4.8% - up 3.1%
Green 3.8% - up 2.8%
Others 0.8% - down 2.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% - no change
Conservatives 355 - up 48
Labour 207 - down 51
UKIP 1 - up 1
LD 9 - down 48
SNP 55 - up 49
Green 1 - no change
Others 0 - no change
Plaid Cymru 4 - up 1
Seeing as the OTL 2015 election had inaccurate polling, I've made the polling for this result inaccurate too. The polling ranges for this result would be roughly
Conservative 35% to 38%
Labour 31% to 34%
LDs 8% to 11%
UKIP 11% to 14%
Green 3% to 6%
The following is a list of seats that changed hands
Labour to SNP (40)
- Aberdeen North
- Aberdeen South
- Airdrie and Shotts
- Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
- Central Ayrshire
- Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
- Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
- Dumfries and Galloway
- Dundee West
- Dunfermline and West Fife
- East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
- East Lothian
- East Renfrewshire
- Edinburgh East
- Edinburgh North and Leith
- Edinburgh South West
- Falkirk
- Glasgow Central
- Glasgow North
- Glasgow North West
- Glasgow South
- Glasgow South West
- Glenrothes
- Inverclyde
- Kilmarnock and Loudoun
- Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
- Lanark and Hamilton East
- Linlithgow and East Falkirk
- Livingston
- Midlothian
- Motherwell and Wishaw
- North Ayrshire and Arran
- Ochil and South Perthshire
- Paisley and Renfrewshire North
- Paisley and Renfrewshire South
- Rutherglen and Hamilton West
- Stirling
- Ochil and South Perthshire
- Paisley and Renfrewshire North
- West Dunbartonshire
- Bath
- Berwick-upon-Tweed
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
- Brecon and Radnorshire
- Cheadle
- Cheltenham
- Chippenham
- Colchester
- Eastbourne
- Eastleigh
- Hazel Grove
- Kingston and Surbiton
- Lewes
- Mid Dorset and North Poole
- North Cornwall
- North Devon
- Portsmouth South
- Solihull
- Somerton and Frome
- St Austell and Newquay
- St Ives
- Sutton and Cheam
- Taunton Deane
- Thornbury and Yate
- Torbay
- Twickenham
- Wells
- Yeovil
- Bermondsey and Old Southwark
- Birmingham, Yardley
- Bradford East
- Brent Central
- Bristol West
- Burnley
- Cardiff Central
- Hornsey and Wood Green
- Manchester, Withington
- Norwich South
- Redcar
- Argyll and Bute
- Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
- East Dunbartonshire
- Edinburgh West
- Gordon
- Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
- North East Fife
- Ross, Skye and Lochaber
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
- Barrow and Furness
- Birmingham Northfield
- Bolton West
- Bridgend
- Derby North
- Derbyshire North East
- Gower
- Halifax
- Hampstead and Kilburn
- Harrow West
- Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East
- Morley and Outwood
- Newcastle-under-Lyme
- Plymouth Moor View
- Southampton, Itchen
- Telford
- Tooting
- Vale of Clwyd
- Walsall North
- Westminster North
- Wrexham
- Ynys Môn
- Clacton
- South Antrim
- Fermagh and South Tyrone
- Belfast East
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