Cameron's majority

Overview
The context behind this is that in the 2015 UK election, a large number of 2010 Lib Dem voters switched to Labour. What if some of them went to the Conservatives instead of Labour?

United Kingdom general election, 2015
y-2015 3%.png


Here is the majority shaded version.

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The changes for the following are based on the 2010 election

Conservatives 40.7% - up 3.7%
Labour 28.4% - down 1.3%
UKIP 12.9% - up 9.7%
LD 8.1% - down 15.5%
SNP 4.8% - up 3.1%
Green 3.8% - up 2.8%
Others 0.8% - down 2.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.6% - no change

Conservatives 355 - up 48
Labour 207 - down 51
UKIP 1 - up 1
LD 9 - down 48
SNP 55 - up 49
Green 1 - no change
Others 0 - no change
Plaid Cymru 4 - up 1

Seeing as the OTL 2015 election had inaccurate polling, I've made the polling for this result inaccurate too. The polling ranges for this result would be roughly

Conservative 35% to 38%
Labour 31% to 34%
LDs 8% to 11%
UKIP 11% to 14%
Green 3% to 6%

The following is a list of seats that changed hands

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Labour to SNP (40)
  • Aberdeen North
  • Aberdeen South
  • Airdrie and Shotts
  • Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
  • Central Ayrshire
  • Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
  • Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
  • Dumfries and Galloway
  • Dundee West
  • Dunfermline and West Fife
  • East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
  • East Lothian
  • East Renfrewshire
  • Edinburgh East
  • Edinburgh North and Leith
  • Edinburgh South West
  • Falkirk
  • Glasgow Central
  • Glasgow North
  • Glasgow North West
  • Glasgow South
  • Glasgow South West
  • Glenrothes
  • Inverclyde
  • Kilmarnock and Loudoun
  • Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
  • Lanark and Hamilton East
  • Linlithgow and East Falkirk
  • Livingston
  • Midlothian
  • Motherwell and Wishaw
  • North Ayrshire and Arran
  • Ochil and South Perthshire
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire North
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire South
  • Rutherglen and Hamilton West
  • Stirling
  • Ochil and South Perthshire
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire North
  • West Dunbartonshire
Liberal Democrat to Conservative (28)
  • Bath
  • Berwick-upon-Tweed
  • Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
  • Brecon and Radnorshire
  • Cheadle
  • Cheltenham
  • Chippenham
  • Colchester
  • Eastbourne
  • Eastleigh
  • Hazel Grove
  • Kingston and Surbiton
  • Lewes
  • Mid Dorset and North Poole
  • North Cornwall
  • North Devon
  • Portsmouth South
  • Solihull
  • Somerton and Frome
  • St Austell and Newquay
  • St Ives
  • Sutton and Cheam
  • Taunton Deane
  • Thornbury and Yate
  • Torbay
  • Twickenham
  • Wells
  • Yeovil
Liberal Democrat to Labour (11)
  • Bermondsey and Old Southwark
  • Birmingham, Yardley
  • Bradford East
  • Brent Central
  • Bristol West
  • Burnley
  • Cardiff Central
  • Hornsey and Wood Green
  • Manchester, Withington
  • Norwich South
  • Redcar
Liberal Democrat to SNP (9)
  • Argyll and Bute
  • Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
  • East Dunbartonshire
  • Edinburgh West
  • Gordon
  • Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
  • North East Fife
  • Ross, Skye and Lochaber
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Labour to Conservative (21)
  • Barrow and Furness
  • Birmingham Northfield
  • Bolton West
  • Bridgend
  • Derby North
  • Derbyshire North East
  • Gower
  • Halifax
  • Hampstead and Kilburn
  • Harrow West
  • Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East
  • Morley and Outwood
  • Newcastle-under-Lyme
  • Plymouth Moor View
  • Southampton, Itchen
  • Telford
  • Tooting
  • Vale of Clwyd
  • Walsall North
  • Westminster North
  • Wrexham
Labour to Plaid Cymru
  • Ynys Môn
Conservative to UKIP (1)
  • Clacton
DUP to UUP (1)
  • South Antrim
Sinn Féin to UUP (1)
  • Fermagh and South Tyrone
Alliance to DUP (1)
  • Belfast East
Credit goes to @Thande for the maps.
 
Last edited:
March 30th
A bit of a more in depth look into my 2015 election covering the period between the dissolution and the election.

March 30th - Cameron dissolves Parliament

BBC NEWS

Parliament has been dissolved, signalling the beginning of the general election campaign, which will last just under six weeks.

David Cameron met the Queen at Buckingham Palace to mark the dissolution of Parliament and returned to Number 10 where he urged voters to keep him in power to safeguard the economic recovery.

But in a flavour of what is to come over the next 38 days, Labour accused Mr Cameron of destabilising British industry with his policy of a referendum on membership of the European Union.

Polling has shown that this could be the tightest election since 1992. The polling lead, at the moment, ranges from a Labour lead of 2% to a Conservative lead of 2%. Most seat projections have pointed another hung parliament with either the Conservatives or Labour as the largest party or a slim Conservative majority.

Professor John Curtice has said that "The election could go either way and the smaller parties, depending on their performance, will influence who goes into Number 10." He added that "They will play a very large role in this election and will make or break either Cameron or Miliband. It's another advancement for democracy - we had the rise of Alliance in the 1980s, which ended decades of Britain's dominant two party system, and in the last few years, we've seen a transition to a multiparty system. We have a battle for first place, but, a bigger battle will be that for the kingmaker position."
 
March 31st
The next installment of the campaign for my 2015 election.

March 31st - first day of the campaign

BBC NEWS - SMOOTH START ON CAMERON BATTLE BUS

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David Cameron with the Conservative candidate for Chippenham.

Day one set the tone for David Cameron's campaign for another term as prime minister. Every moment was carefully planned and controlled, from the formalities at Westminster to the first rally at a target seat in Wiltshire.

He will say that the Conservatives' economic policies are cutting the deficit, reducing unemployment and creating economic growth.

He will warn that Labour would put that at risk and bring economic chaos. And he will set out the "stark choice" of either himself or Ed Miliband holding the reins of power in Downing Street.

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David Cameron speaks at a rally at a school in Wiltshire.

The first rally of the campaign was at a school at Chippenham in Wiltshire, where the Conservatives are hoping to overturn Duncan Hames's Liberal Democrat majority of just over 2,400.

Cameron hopes by emphasizing the Government's economic record, the Conservatives will be able to take votes from Labour and the Lib Dems, allowing them to win a majority. However, his message will have its first big test on Thursday, when Cameron goes into battle with 6 other party leaders in the first televised debate. Only then will we see if it works.

BBC NEWS - CAMPAIGNS ACROSS THE COUNTRY

Here we look at who is where and what they are doing.

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Nick Clegg at the West Hertfordshire Hospital with the Liberal Democrat candidate for Watford.

Nick Clegg, this morning, began the Lib Dem campaign by speaking about his party's commitment to both the NHS and their backing for £3bn for mental health services in the next parliament. He then visited the West Hertfordshire Hospital with the candidate for Watford, Dorothy Thornhill.

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Conservative Chancellor George Osborne prepares a pizza during a visit to a Pizza Express restaurant in Hove, East Sussex.

The chancellor, George Osborne, announced a commitment to help businesses and their staff in Hove. Afterwards, he campaigned in the seaside town, visiting businesses and taking questions from members of the public.

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Labour leader Ed Miliband on the Labour Battle Bus in Manchester.

Labour leader Ed Miliband visited Manchester on his party's battle bus. Earlier, in a radio interview, he said politicians "can get obsessed with themselves", adding: "It becomes a personality contest and it's not about us but the British people."
 
April 1st
Another installment

April 1 - second day of campaign

THE DAILY TELEGRAPH - SENIOR BUSINESSMEN HAIL CONSERVATIVE ECONOMIC POLICIES

A Labour government would “threaten jobs and deter investment” in the UK, a coalition of more than 100 of the country’s most senior business figures warn.

In a letter to The Telegraph, senior executives from companies employing more than half-a-million people hail Conservative economic policies which they say show that “the UK is open for business”.

The letter, signed by 103 business leaders, praises David Cameron and George Osborne’s decision cut to Corporation Tax and warns that a “change in course” would “put the recovery at risk”.

Corporation tax will fall to 20 per cent. Mr Miliband and Mr Balls have said that Labour will reverse the cut if the party wins the May 7 general election. When the coalition took office it was 28 per cent.

The letter is the biggest ever endorsement by business leaders of a political party and will further undermine the economic credibility of Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, and Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor.

In a further blow to Mr Miliband, the letter has been signed by at least five business leaders who previously backed Labour, including Sir Charles Dunstone, the chairman of Dixons Carphone and Talk Talk plc, and Duncan Bannatyne, a former star of Dragons’ Den.

The list also includes Peter Grauer, the chairman of Bloomberg, the corporation where Mr Miliband chose to unveil his business manifesto on Monday.

The letter comes just a day after official figures showed that the UK economy is growing faster than expected and that household disposable income in back to pre-2010 levels.

It came as Labour said that it would introduce a new law to ban zero hours contracts for staff after 12 weeks in work, in a move that will further harm it's relationship with British businesses, which has become increasingly strained under Mr Miliband's leadership.

On Monday Mr Miliband faced a backlash from company bosses who had featured in a Labour advertisement about the risks of leaving the EU and he has faced repeated accusations from company bosses that he is anti-business.

Previous election campaigns have been marked by interventions from business leaders and under the leaderships of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, Labour regularly received the backing of Britain’s biggest companies.

However, the letter says that the last five years of Conservative-led government have “supported investment and job creation”.

The signatories include senior executives from nine FTSE 100 companies and 21 FTSE 250 companies as well as small and medium sized businesses and entrepreneurs.
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The letter in full

Dear Sirs,

We run some of the leading businesses in the UK. We believe this Conservative-led Government has been good for business and has pursued policies which have supported investment and job creation.

David Cameron and George Osborne’s flagship policy of progressively lowering Corporation Tax to 20% has been very important in showing the UK is open for business. It has been a key part of their economic plan.

The result is that Britain grew faster than any other major economy last year and businesses like ours have created over 1.85m new jobs.

We believe a change in course will threaten jobs and deter investment. This would send a negative message about Britain and put the recovery at risk.

-----------------

Labour on Monday launched its business manifesto in London but immediately faced criticism over a full-page advert the party had taken out in the Financial Times featuring quotes from a number of UK business leaders.

However, within hours four of the six company bosses had distanced themselves from the advertisement and Labour because of concerns they were being used for political ends.

Siemens UK, the electronics company, accused Labour of “overstepping the line” and said it had not been told that the quote would be used in a political advert.

Kellogg’s, the breakfast cereal company, said that “eyebrows had been raised” when the quote was used.

Mr Miliband has faced months of criticism from business figures after he criticised the tax status of Stefano Pessina, the Boots boss who warned that the Labour leader would be a “catastrophe” for Britain.

Mr Balls was also embarrassed earlier this year when he failed to name a single businessman that back Labour, instead referring to “Bill somebody”.

Meanwhile, George Osborne on Tuesday hailed official ONS figures which disclosed that GDP has increased by 2.8 per cent over 2014, up from forecasts of 2.6 per cent.

Average household incomes are now higher than they were in 2010, a milestone hailed by Mr Osborne as "good news for families and businesses across the country".

The ONS also disclosed that household spending has grown by 0.6 per cent, or £1.6 billion, in the fourth quarter of last year, driven by a huge rise in people buying life insurance as the economy recovers.

Mr Osborne said: "We've got a hat-trick of good news about the British economy and with 37 days to go the election it's another sign that changing course would put recovery at risk.”

He added: “So voters now face a stark choice: do we stick with a plan which is working, delivering growth and jobs, or do we put all that at risk with Ed Miliband whose policies of more spending, more borrowing and higher taxes will lead to economic chaos."


BBC NEWS - CAMPAIGNS ACROSS THE COUNTRY

Here we look at who is where and what they are doing.

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Ed Miliband gestures during a question and answer session at the engineering company David Brown Gear Systems in Huddersfield.

Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, spent the morning at engineering company David Brown Gear Systems in Huddersfield where he talked about his party's tax plans. He said it was time that the UK returned to being a country that properly "rewards hard work".

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David Cameron's wife, Samantha, meets Jessica at the Abbey Court School during a campaign stop in Rochester and Strood.

Samantha Cameron was at a school in Kent as she made her first solo appearance on the campaign trail. The prime minister's wife was throwing her support behind the Conservative candidate Kelly Tolhurst in Rochester and Strood, the seat lost to UKIP last autumn after Mark Reckless defected from the Tories.

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David Cameron visits Marston's brewery in Wolverhampton where the Conservatives are defending the key seat of Wolverhampton SW. They are also targeting the key seat of Wolverhampton NE.

Meanwhile, her husband was visiting Marston's brewery in Wolverhampton. David Cameron welcomed a letter signed by 100 business leaders and published in the Daily Telegraph that backed the coalition government's reductions in corporation tax since 2010.

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Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg alongside local MP Jo Swinson at Playtown in Bishopbriggs, East Dunbartonshire.

Journalists in Glasgow questioned the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and Jo Swinson, the party's candidate for East Dunbartonshire, at a coffee shop. After lunch, Mr Clegg and Ms Swinson met parents at a local playgroup, a good place to talk about the Lib Dem proposal to triple paternity leave to six weeks.

Polling

Yougov/The Sun - 30th and 31st March

Conservative 37%
Labour 34%
Lib Dem 7%
UKIP 12%
Green 5%
Other 5%

More polls are due out tomorrow.
 
April 2nd
Another instalment

April 2nd - 3rd day of the campaign

BBC NEWS - LEADERS 'LOOK FORWARD' TO TV DEBATE

David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg have all sounded upbeat ahead of the first TV election debate.

They each said they were "looking forward" to the TV clash which also features UKIP, the SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru leaders for the first time.

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said the seven-way debate illustrated that "two-party politics at Westminster is over" whilst UKIP leader Nigel Farage made predictions of an "earthquake" in Britain's political system on the 7th of May.

Norman Smith, BBC assistant political editor, said the stakes were in a way highest for Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband as the smaller parties had less to lose.

There had been doubt over whether a debate between leaders - first held in 2010 when then PM Gordon Brown, Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg participated in three events - would be repeated before the 7 May poll.

Mr Cameron had rejected the initial proposals because they did not include the Greens, and also said any debate should take place before the start of the campaign on 30 March.

The final schedule also included a live question and answer programme featuring David Cameron and Ed Miliband appearing separately, shown on Channel 4 and Sky News last week, and the second TV debate, shown across the BBC and moderated by David Dimbleby on 16 April.

There will also be a special Question Time on BBC One, a week before polling day, with Mr Cameron, Mr Miliband and Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg appearing one after the other to answer questions from a studio audience.

The Democratic Unionist Party, which has eight MPs, has criticised its exclusion from the programme.


BBC NEWS - CAMPAIGNS ACROSS THE COUNTRY

Here we look at who is where and what they are doing.

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Nigel Farage, UKIP leader, leaves the BBC after an interview on Radio 4's Today programme.

UKIP leader Nigel Farage began the day with an interview on BBC Radio 4's Today programme. He said he wanted to see fewer than 50,000 people coming in to the UK per year, but said he would not set a cap on net migration.

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Labour leader Ed Miliband greets a child as he arrives at an election campaign event at the town hall in Bury.

Labour leader Ed Miliband met four-year-old Jennifer Talbot Bagnall at Bury town hall on his way to one of his people's question time sessions.

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Conservative leader David Cameron talks with pupils during a general election campaign visit to a school in Warrington.

Prime Minister David Cameron went back to school and met pupils of the King's Leadership Academy in Warrington. He told one pupil, whose hobby is ju-jitsu: "So I get Nigel Farage and get him on the floor?" Afterwards, he reassured the assembled reporters that he was joking about tonight's television debate. Warrington South is one of the key seats in this year's election. In 2010, the Conservative candidate won with a majority of 1,553 or 2.8%. If Labour can win this then they could be the largest party, however, if the Conservatives hold it and can increase their majority, then they will remain the largest party and would be likely to win a majority.

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The Scottish Health Secretary, Shona Robison, campaigns with the SNP's Edinburgh East candidate in Portobello, Edinburgh.

SNP general election candidate for Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard was joined by Scotland's Health Secretary Shona Robison in Portobello, Scotland. First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon addressed questions from MSPs during First Minister's Questions. She said that a vote for the SNP in the general election is a "vote to make Scotland's voice heard like never before".

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Green leader Natalie Bennett campaigns with supporters in Manchester.

Green Party leader Natalie Bennett met supporters in Piccadilly Gardens as she arrived in Manchester for tonight's debate.

Polling

Yougov/The Sun - 31st March and 1st April

Conservative 38% +1%
Labour 33% -1%
Lib Dem 8% +1%
UKIP 13% +1%
Green 4% -1%
Other 5%

Populus - same period

Conservative 34%
Labour 32%
Lib Dem 9%
UKIP 15%
Green 5%
Other 5%

More polls are due out tomorrow.
 
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