California Republic How?

Can anyone give me any possible PODs or at least point me in the right direction of how a California Republic can survive and not be annexed by the United States?
 
It depends on what you are aiming for. If it is by the Californios there is the issue that OTL they as a class got close to a civil war after a decade of power prior to the American annexation. There was a struggle for power between the Montereños (those based in Monterrey) and the Angeleños (those based in Los Angeles) that boiled down to clashing personalities. At one point the parties requested protectorates from the French and British respectively and unlike what AH.com or Victoria II would imply, the consuls rebuffed their offers. :rolleyes:

A large ongoing political development was the secularisation of the missions. An attempt at sending Mexican craftsmen north to Alta California were rebuffed, mostly from the fact their incoming party leaders Hijar and Padrés were given powers to seize the clerical estates. The resident Californios prised the lands for themselves and made a fuss over the would be colonists. Getting cooperation between the liberal colonists and the Californios would perhaps lay some seeds for a more viable California but pre-Gold Rush there wasn't even 10,000 non-indigenous residing in Alta California!

So how would you get an independent Latin California? Uhm, I don't know, because the Gold Rush would destabilise their power very quickly with hordes of Anglos arriving. I feel a California populated by Americans would have a smaller chance at wanting to stay apart from the US, despite what other here may say. It is too much of a Texas 2.0
 
Can anyone give me any possible PODs or at least point me in the right direction of how a California Republic can survive and not be annexed by the United States?

Henry Clay wins the 1844 election.

There is no Mexican War.

Texas is not annexed, and makes a deal with Britain to avoid reconquest by Mexico and/or bankruptcy.

The Mormons establish their independent state of Deseret.

Gold is discovered in California.

50,000 49ers flood into California. This includes lots of Irish immigrants and Australian "Sydney Coves" (the latter were there OTL), not quite so many Americans.

The Mexican authorities in California shake down miners, steal the best claims, and generally behave like the Mexican government usually has.

A group of 49ers lead a revolution against Mexico.

Britain recognizes the California Republic and provides aid to prevent Mexican reconquest. Many Americans are offended, but with Texas independent, the Great Basin occupied by Deseret, and New Mexico still part of Mexico, the only contact the U.S. has is through the remote and unsettled Oregon Territory.

California remains independent.
 
One with a lot of butterflies; US accepts the annexation of the Yucatan and gets tied up with the Caste Wars in addition to the Mexican-American war (not wanting to have to deal with the Mayans is the primary reason why the US rejected the offer IOTL). As a result, American interests in the west are at least delayed from OTL while they try to put the peninsula under control. Would also probably result in (at least) a different Mexican-American War, among other things...
 

TFSmith121

Banned
There was a fairly detailed thread on this about

There was a fairly detailed thread on this about two months ago.

Best,
 
Maybe we can make that old favorite, Clay beating Polk in 1844 (leading to no Texas annexation and no Mexican War) the POD:

"The destiny of California under a Clay presidency is harder to project with confidence. Even without the advent of war with the United States, Mexico would have sustained its claims to sovereignty only with difficulty. In early 1844 the beleaguered governor of California, Manuel Micheltorena, recommended to his superiors in Mexico City that they consider handing the province over to British creditors rather than let it fall into the hands of American immigrants and californios (Californians of Hispanic descent). 'In August 1844,' wrote David J. Weber, 'a group of californios met secretly with British vice consul James Forbes in Monterey and told him they were ready to drive Micheltorena out of California, declare independence, and ask for British protection.' Without instructions from London, Forbes was stymied, but the rebels nonetheless succeeded in ousting Micheltorena in early 1845. They stopped short of declaring independence, however, and soon divided among themselves. Meanwhile, Americans in California prepared to take matters into their own hands, and in June 1846 they staged the Bear Flag Revolt. 'Even if [the Mexican-American War] had not occurred,' Weber asserted, 'Americans in California had become numerous enough to think they could play the 'Texas game' and win.'

"Whether the discovery of gold in 1848 would have prompted President Clay to show more enthusiasm for annexing California than he did for annexing Texas is hard to know. Fellow Whig (but political rival) Daniel Webster had long hoped to acquire San Francisco and the surrounding area for the United States. Yet Clay was more sensitive than Webster to sectional tensions and to the explosive consequences of adding new territory to the federal domain. As with Texas, Clay might well have preferred strong commercial ties with California to the national and international controversies sparked by annexation. For this reason, he would probably have encouraged California to remain independent so long as it avoided an open alliance with Great Britain or another foreign power. Certainly, the possibility that California could have flourished as a separate nation deserves serious consideration. The historical geographer D.W. Meinig has written, 'Was there ever a region better designed by Nature for separate geopolitical existence than Alta California--a land so distinctive and attractive, set apart by the great unbroken wall of the Sierra Nevada backed by desert wastelands, fronting on the world's greatest ocean, focused on one of the world's most magnificent harbors?'

"Alternatively, under pressure from Democratic expansionists in Congress, a President Clay might have proposed pairing the annexation of Texas and California--a reprise of the Missouri Compromise with its coupling of Missouri and Maine. But that scenario seems less probable than the establishment of an independent California because it presupposes Mexico's peaceful acquiescence, a most unlikely development. In keeping with past policy, Britain would have supported Mexican objections to American annexation (as distinct from Texan or Californian independence), and Clay would have backed away from a war for territorial expansion. His commitment to diplomacy, rather than force of arms, would almost surely have curtailed the country's westward growth for the duration of his presidency." Gary J. Kornblith, "Rethinking the Coming of the Civil War: A Counterfactual Exercise", Journal of American History 90 (June 2003): 76-105 http://www.oah.org/site/assets/documents/02_JAH_2003_kornblith.pdf
 
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