California Gold Rush In a Timeline Without Mexican-American War

So in a Timeline where no war breaks out with America, and Mexico, and it keeps all its territories, what would happen to the Gold Rush? Would it be butterflied, would it still happen, if it does, do tons of Mexicans flock over there? And if it does happen, how much money would Mexico get from it, and what would be the consequences?
 
So in a Timeline where no war breaks out with America, and Mexico, and it keeps all its territories, what would happen to the Gold Rush? Would it be butterflied, would it still happen, if it does, do tons of Mexicans flock over there? And if it does happen, how much money would Mexico get from it, and what would be the consequences?

Well, one way this could happen would be that the Cherokees end up in Texas instead of white settlers which would keep the US from buying Texas. I am guessing maybe Mexico can still sell some land to the US if need be (up to the Rocky Mountains), but that is optional.

Mexican settlers discovering gold would be a massive boon for the nation. It would incentivize alot of people to settle the north and have Mexico better integrate the northern territories into the whole. Whether or not they will do better with the natives is up to the policy, but I think they would probably fare better. A Mexico-based California would lead to the rest of the North being more populated and might invite some people to Mexico (though I picture it would be non-whites like the Chinese to do so).

The US would probably end up pissed but I doubt they could get away with declaring war over it.

The money would help, but it would all depend where it would go. It would depend on who was president. If Mariano Arista was president, he could use the gold to help bring fiscal responsability to the nation if he could overcome the plague of conservative general staff he had (though the govenrment would be more stable with no Mexican-American war and so I don't know who could've been president by this point.)

As for other consequences, a bigger Mexico would change the American Civil War by a fair bit. Mexico would probably remain neutral, albeit supporting the Union, especially if the CSA still wanted to try and take land from Mexico if they won.
 
Well, one way this could happen would be that the Cherokees end up in Texas instead of white settlers which would keep the US from buying Texas. I am guessing maybe Mexico can still sell some land to the US if need be (up to the Rocky Mountains), but that is optional.

Mexican settlers discovering gold would be a massive boon for the nation. It would incentivize alot of people to settle the north and have Mexico better integrate the northern territories into the whole. Whether or not they will do better with the natives is up to the policy, but I think they would probably fare better. A Mexico-based California would lead to the rest of the North being more populated and might invite some people to Mexico (though I picture it would be non-whites like the Chinese to do so).

The US would probably end up pissed but I doubt they could get away with declaring war over it.

The money would help, but it would all depend where it would go. It would depend on who was president. If Mariano Arista was president, he could use the gold to help bring fiscal responsability to the nation if he could overcome the plague of conservative general staff he had (though the govenrment would be more stable with no Mexican-American war and so I don't know who could've been president by this point.)

As for other consequences, a bigger Mexico would change the American Civil War by a fair bit. Mexico would probably remain neutral, albeit supporting the Union, especially if the CSA still wanted to try and take land from Mexico if they won.

That actually brings up the question of if Chinese immigration would be cut down on by the Mexican government like the U.S did. That also means, if Mexico gets more people up north, it will become more into Pacific and Asian Politics. They might even be the ones to start trade with Japan.

I don't know if Mexico would stay neutral. They might want to divide the nation so both couldn't attack Mexico, so Mexico could play them off each other. Like if the Confederates try to attack Mexico, America gets involved, if America tries to attack Mexico, the Confederates get involved.

With all this money though, infrastructure and military would boom really really well, and that might be Mexico might seek to expand, maybe down South if not against America.

This also though brings up to what would happen in the Franco-Mexican war and Maximilian.
 

raharris1973

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This also though brings up to what would happen in the Franco-Mexican war and Maximilian.

If mining keeps Mexico solvent, the French won't have an "in" to get started on Mexico.

A later independent California or later American California post-Gold Rush would be a possibility too. If Americans are the dominant settler group, they can Texas it eventually. If the migrants are a more mixed lot, who lack consensus on joining the US, it could stay independent.
 
If mining keeps Mexico solvent, the French won't have an "in" to get started on Mexico.

A later independent California or later American California post-Gold Rush would be a possibility too. If Americans are the dominant settler group, they can Texas it eventually. If the migrants are a more mixed lot, who lack consensus on joining the US, it could stay independent.

American only got into Texas because Mexico agreed for settlers to get in there. If Mexico declines (or approves of the Cherokee one instead), then the US really doesn't have a way in.
 
That actually brings up the question of if Chinese immigration would be cut down on by the Mexican government like the U.S did. That also means, if Mexico gets more people up north, it will become more into Pacific and Asian Politics. They might even be the ones to start trade with Japan.

I don't know if Mexico would stay neutral. They might want to divide the nation so both couldn't attack Mexico, so Mexico could play them off each other. Like if the Confederates try to attack Mexico, America gets involved, if America tries to attack Mexico, the Confederates get involved.

With all this money though, infrastructure and military would boom really really well, and that might be Mexico might seek to expand, maybe down South if not against America.

This also though brings up to what would happen in the Franco-Mexican war and Maximilian.

Well it depends on who would have sentiments. I doubt the Union has any reason to attack Mexico while the Confederates arguably would. The slavery issue is another big thing to consider as well.
 
Well it depends on who would have sentiments. I doubt the Union has any reason to attack Mexico while the Confederates arguably would. The slavery issue is another big thing to consider as well.

They might not have a reason now, but they could later down the line. Also, a growing America would be Mexico's only real threat, and just to be safe might want to break apart the U.S.
 
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