California as a swing or Republican state?

POD 1990, make it happen. No ideological adjustments allowed in either party except for some leeway (by which I mean somewhere in between SB 1070 and DREAM, no amnesty allowed) on immigration for the GOP. Double Bonus if CA becomes solid Republican (like the Deep South) by 2012. Triple Bonus if Republicans fill all major statewide offices (governor, AG, both senators) by 2012.

To make it easier if you want, a POD of 1985. The Cold War must end on schedule.

My suggestions: work with white flight as a starting point.
 
You know, I never got why California was solidly Republican for about 30 years (50s to 80s). Mexicans were always a Democratic stronghold IIRC, while even without them you still have the Bay and the Hollywood machine (yes, I'll admit that the media has a left-leaning bias. Not that anyone doubted it).

Maybe if you would loosen the rules. California is slightly to the right of some other blue states on fiscal issues (rich people), so a more libertarian GOP could make California at least competitive, though still Democratic-leaning.
 
The defense industry. In that era there was a much larger population of white suburbanites who worked for those contractors, and like white suburbanites generally, they were solid GOP voters. With the defense industry downsizing after 1991 and white flight generally, the GOP lost California. GHWB eked out a win over Dukakis in '88, but the last conservative Republican to win statewide was Pete Wilson in his senatorial and gubernatorial elections. Were it not for the immigration question, Hispanics would be a lock for the GOP on social issues and with a bit of work they could get an economic majority as well. 25% of CA small businesses are owned by Hispanics. GWB assiduously courted Hispanics in TX and in 2004 won 44% of the Hispanic vote. So far from impossible.

For those who say Prop 187, I digress. The Hispanics who opposed that, as with SB1070 (which also has its Hispanic and Democratic backers), would likely be Democratic anyways. In any case, the erosion had started in the mid-1980s, 8 years before Prop 187, so discard that theory.

Now, how to prevent white flight is step 1. Then we can move onto immigration.
 
Ultimate Bonus: keep CA this way even with Prop 187. Whoever succeeds at that will get whatever Canadian virtual export they desire.
 
POD 1990, make it happen. No ideological adjustments allowed in either party except for some leeway (by which I mean somewhere in between SB 1070 and DREAM, no amnesty allowed) on immigration for the GOP. Double Bonus if CA becomes solid Republican (like the Deep South) by 2012. Triple Bonus if Republicans fill all major statewide offices (governor, AG, both senators) by 2012.

To make it easier if you want, a POD of 1985. The Cold War must end on schedule.

My suggestions: work with white flight as a starting point.

On a federal level I think it's impossible(best case scenario: typically light blue state like New Hampshire). To get even that you need to win over some of the Hispanic vote, DREAM act probably wouldn't be enough so you need to play identity politics- the Republicans have to have a Mexican presidential candidate. Problem: No viable contenders that I'm aware of.

On a state level however it's easy. For the senate have Michael Huffington beat Dianne Feinstein in 1994 and hold on in 2000 and 2006(a scandal on the Dem candidate is almost certainly necessary in 2006), with Boxer beaten in 2010 by Fiorina or anyone else. As regards the governors mansion, have Gray Davis hold on till 2006 and another Democrat win the 2006 gubernatorial election. The Democrats having held the Governorship for 12 years and dominance in the state legislature will be blamed for the states problems and suffer a landslide defeat on the state level in 2010, strengthened by the anti-Democrat climate on a national level as well. This will carry the AG for the Republicans, although the California state legislature and California's representatives in the House will almost certainly remain predominantly Democrat.

In 2012 if you have a Mexican candidate for President on the Republican ticket(and Obama has not rebounded) California is winnable. Its possible such a victory could be a realigning one for federal elections in California. Though I doubt it.
 
It's hardly ASB or impossible if it happened for 30 years. If Bush can win over 40% of the Hispanic vote federally and in Texas, why can't the Republicans do so in California? Hispanics aren't single-issue voters, nor is any voter bloc for that matter. Social issues is easy, economics requires a moderate amount of work. Small business owners, parts of the religious blue-collars and suburbanites, strict fiscal conservatives/centrists off the top of my head.

Congrats on fulfilling the statewide requirement though. :cool:

Now to the first question: how to fix white flight? If you can keep enough of those suburban whites that should keep CA light blue like NH au moins. Once the Hispanic dilemma is resolved, then the GOP is set.
 
Is there perhaps a way to minimize the reduction of the defense industry? For example, a somewhat major conflict on the Korean Peninsula, involving the United States, in the early 1990s?

What about a series of misunderstandings leading to conflict between US 7th Fleet and the PLAN in the Taiwan Straits, circa 1995?
 
It's hardly ASB or impossible if it happened for 30 years. If Bush can win over 40% of the Hispanic vote federally and in Texas, why can't the Republicans do so in California? Hispanics aren't single-issue voters, nor is any voter bloc for that matter. Social issues is easy, economics requires a moderate amount of work. Small business owners, parts of the religious blue-collars and suburbanites, strict fiscal conservatives/centrists off the top of my head.

Congrats on fulfilling the statewide requirement though. :cool:

Now to the first question: how to fix white flight? If you can keep enough of those suburban whites that should keep CA light blue like NH au moins. Once the Hispanic dilemma is resolved, then the GOP is set.
:eek:Well Huffington's survival in 2000/6 were pretty much wished into existence, but thanks.

As for white flight, if they left due to the decline of the defense industry, 2 possibilities exist. 1: Floyd's suggestion, or 2:A seamless transition from defense industry to another manufacturing industry foundation. Problem: what could possibly take the defense industries place, particularly given the general decline of the manufacturing industry in America(in reality the decline has been in manufacturing employment due to mechanization and increased efficiency, but irrelevant to the topic)?

The only way I can see it happening is through an actual leftwing Dem gaining power in 1988/92 and pork spending/opposing free trade so as to prop up flagging manufacturing industries and kick off new ones. That doesn't work though because they would then shift in their loyalties towards the Democrats due to Republican opposition to such economic intervention-essentially proposing to kill their employers.

I dunno. Maybe have California adopt pro-manufacturing policies through tax cuts for such businesses?
 
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