Cain and Bobby, Jack and Abel? Variations on the Bush Years

Japhy

Banned
Cain and Bobby, Jack and Abel?
Variations on the Bush Years
A Short Timeline by Japhy​

The Campaign of a Thousand Miles...

Bush For Governor Campaign Headquarters
Miami, Florida
November 8th, 1994

He slumped in his chair, the door closed for a moment and for the first time in more than twenty hours he was by himself. He placed his glasses on the desk and closed his eyes.

A few deep breaths.

Thats all he needed.

It had been hell today. He wasn’t sure how many speeches he’d given today, or in the past week, or in the past three months. His hands hurt. His throat was sore from all the times he had to yell out terms like “Pragmatism” and “Consensus”.

But the night wasn’t over yet. It was going to be a long hall, one of the interns was already out getting Chinese food brought in by the crate, from at least half a dozen all night restaurants, as what should have been a victory celebration was rapidly turning into ground zero for the counter-attack.

But first things first, he had to make a call. He wasn’t mad about it, but there was another family event going on tonight that was going a hell of a lot smoother.

“George.”

“Hiya, Jeb!” Said the voice on the other line, it was a bit hard to hear, people were clearly celebrating close by, probably in another room.

“I just wanted to call, and say Congratulations, looks like you cleared Richards by at least four points."

“Congratulations to you too Jeb.” There was just a hint of a pause. “Laura and I have been watching the news on Satellite.”

“Mind if I borrow a point or two from you before you say that?” He joked. “It’s definitely going to be a recount down here. Some sort of question as to things down in Palm Beach.”

“Yeah.” The elder brother was quiet for another moment. Jeb knew it wasn’t that he was slow thinking of a response, George was always sharp, he just doubted what came out of his mouth sometimes.

“They’re going to do that, it’s just how it goes. Chiles is kicking up a mess because he knows he blew it, Sore Loser Games and all that crap.”

Jeb cracked a small weary smile at that. “I hope you’re right George. We’ll know in a day or two at least.”

“I’m telling you, you won it. You’re the Brains in this outfit, and you know it. You got it in the bag. Wait a minute.” He stopped for a minute as he spoke to someone else in Texas. “Karl wants you to know he’s calling it for you.”

The smile vanished at the name of that… man.

“Tell him I appreciate that. But we’ll just have to wait on the recount. Anyway, I’ve got to go. Tell Laura and the Girls I love them. See you at Kennebunkport, Governor.” His brother laughed.

“Same for Columba and the kids, Jeb. We’ll talk again soon, Governor.”​

---------​

Florida Governor's Mansion
Tallahassee, Florida
March 22nd, 1999

Jeb Bush almost leap out of his office chair when the older man entered the room.

“George! Its a pleasure. Anything to drink?” He said as they shook hands.

The Elder Statesmen nodded. “Scotch.” Came out in one of those polished, deep voices that sounded all the same like they should naturally be gravelly, the voice of an establishment figure from another era.

Jeb was quick to the cabinet, and poured two glasses of twenty-year old Bowmore, and handed one of the glasses to his guest. George P. Schultz swirled the Florida-required ice cubes around the glass for a moment before he took a sip. “Damned good Islay, damned good.”

Jeb let out a breath, and then realized he hadn’t been breathing for a moment.

God was he getting worried about this?

But of course he was, but he had to make sure he didn’t look worried.

He took a sip of the scotch too. It was good, but he knew that, he let himself enjoy the smoky peat taste for just a moment. This was business.

“How was the flight down for you George?”

“Wonderful. A private flight is always easier.” Said Schultz, who then moved in his seat. “Marvelous weather, marvelous scotch. You know Jeb, you’ve been doing a hell of a job as Governor down here and…” He continued.

So that's it.

“... and the whole party is glad to see the work you’ve been able to put in with the Cuban vote, this whole business of seizing the center is going to work well in more and more of the swing states for Senate and Gubernatorial races.” Schultz took another drink. He was waiting.

“But not for the Presidential race, not with me anyway.”

“To be blunt. No. Clinton’s dragging the party down with him, and frankly we’re having the same problem thanks to Gingrich. Consensus-building is good in a state like Florida where we need to build up, but with all this crap that we have to deal with thanks to Starr and Barr and the rest of those idiots we need someone who can put their foot down. A hard Conservative.”

“George, you know I’m not Jim Jeffords.” Jeb said firmly, making sure not to plead.

The old suit nodded. “I know that Jeb. But the National Committee have been talking it over, speaking with donors, and old fossils like me. We’ve got to contain the problems Newt has gotten us into."

"So you think I'm good enough to help deliver the state but not good enough to deliver the country?"

"No one's attacking you for what you have to do down here Jeb. But you’re not the man we need to get the Oval Office back."

“So who is?”

“Your Brother.”​

---------​

Florida Governor's Mansion
Tallahassee, Florida
June 14th, 1999

He slumped in his chair, the door closed for a moment and for the first time in more than twenty hours he was by himself. He placed his glasses on the desk and closed his eyes.

A few deep breaths.

Thats all he needed.

It had been a hell of a week. The Governorship wasn’t a particularly an easy job, with enough appearances and meetings and briefings to tire out a man who wasn’t contemplating a whole other batch of issues. Especially when those issues were required to be kept quiet, and in the smallest possible circle. His head hurt. His eyes were strained from all of the quiet poll numbers he’d had commissioned and the quiet notes passed by a singular aide as word came in from a few discrete sources in the business community and from the beltway.

But everything depended on what he decided to do tonight. There was a small meeting room here in the Governor’s Mansion where a small team of staffers was already calling in for sandwiches in preparation.

But first things first, he had to make a phone call. It didn’t take any time, he had the private number to call anyway.

“Dad.”

“Jeb? What time is it? Are you alright?”

“I’m fine Dad. Its ten to eleven. I’m sorry to be calling so late.”

He could hear his father adjusting himself in bed along with the sound of a hand muffled over the receiver as the Forty-First President of the United States said “Its just Jeb calling Barbra, go back to sleep.”

The voice came in clearer after that. “Its not a problem Jeb, whats going on?”

“I just need to ask you something Dad. It’s important.”

“You know I’m always here to give you advice.”

“What would you say if I told you I was going to run?”

There was something between a sigh and a gasp on the other end.

“Run now?”

“Yeah.”

“I’d tell you I love you, and I’ve always been proud of you.”

There was nothing else for a minute. Just the two of them breathing. Jeb felt himself deflating. He’d done it, the thing he’d been dreading for weeks. He was drained.

Eventually his father spoke again. “And you’d be a damned good President.”

Jeb placed his hand over his closed eyes, they were wet. A closed smile spread across his face, and he rocked himself back and forth a little bit.

“Jeb?”

“Yeah Dad.”

“You know your Brother would be a good one too.”

“Yeah.”

“You know I couldn't choose. Not one over the other.”

“I know.”

“You need to talk to him.”

“I will.”

“Jeb.” Another long pause. “Just, before you do this. Think of the party.”

“I am.”​
 
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Excellent to see this getting off the ground. I think it's interesting that this is a reversal of the cliche that Jeb would have been the frontrunner in 2000 had he run in '94.
 

Japhy

Banned
Go Jeb go... (never thought I'd say that lol) I'm liking this already

Well lets not pretend that there's some massive moral standing that Jeb has that his brother doesn't at this point. Except for the fact that W. Bush was rather supportive of the death penalty in his state to an extent rarely seen in US history. I mean no one in the story knows whats really coming.

Excellent to see this getting off the ground. I think it's interesting that this is a reversal of the cliche that Jeb would have been the frontrunner in 2000 had he run in '94.

Well thanks Plumber, I was hoping you'd enjoy what I came up with.

The main thing to realize about the cliche reversal is that in 2000 the GOP at large and the RNC/Wise Men/Donors were facing a very disturbing picture. In the immediate aftermath of the '98 midterms there was a lot of panic about Gingrich and his failures. There was a feeling that in '88 and '96 they'd let the party moderate too far as well. Which is why in 1998-1999 we saw The Vulcans and the rest of the party and support machinery in the GOP go with W. Bush as the man to run. And Jeb existing winning in 1994 doesn't inherently negate any of that.

Jeb-as-a-Moderate, no matter how much you believe that to be the truth of the man, was something that could secure him his two IOTL terms as Governor, and seems to be a working strategy at this point for 2016, as far as we can say at this point, but was not something that was going to appeal to the GOP Establishment in 2000.
 
Well lets not pretend that there's some massive moral standing that Jeb has that his brother doesn't at this point. Except for the fact that W. Bush was rather supportive of the death penalty in his state to an extent rarely seen in US history. I mean no one in the story knows whats really coming.
.

Oh nothing to with anything OTL. Just was picturing him and George debating each other and the awkwardness at ether there moms or dads birthday party's in Maine.
 
Excellent. Just one thing. You refer to HW Bush as the Forty Second president. I'm fairly certain he was the 41st.
 
I too was confused as to why Bill Clinton was hushing Barbara Bush back to sleep. I know the man had extravagant tastes but a Presidential Threeway is a little much.

With that out of the way, let me say how glad I am that you're writing something again. Within a minute of the first sentence I was hooked.

You write in a way that - while hoping this does not make me appear arrogant - reminds me of the way Jack and I approached Agent Lavender. These are real people talking, real people with families, egos, pet hates, and hobbies. Not political automatons gasping for air and discussing swings and House races And Nothing Else, Ever.

The pouring of the drinks made me definitely think of Lavender - I think a drinking game that matched the number of whiskies poured in that TL would require a session with a stomach pump.

The plot here is interesting - your POD elegantly unfurled in a manner that real humans would say. There's no 'as you know, Dubya' here. I particularly like the idea of a turn of the millennium 'Miliband of Brothers' scenario with much higher stakes.

I can hear their voices. I can't wait to find out what they say next.

(I hope this one ends with John McCain down to his last mag as DC falls to the W Guard, his eyes wide and delirious, the fight finally back in him. Bombard the Capitol!)
 
I like the idea of brother-against-brother (and heck it has happened, look at the Millibands over in Britain). But a major concern I have with this TL is the idea that Jeb would have governed as a moderate had he won in 1994. He ran as a hard right conservative then. And while he sounded less hard shelled in 1998, he was a very conservative governor of Florida, cutting the number of state employees, abolishing racial preferences in higher education, instituting school vouchers, and supporting a very strong pro-life agenda.

Why would he be different in this TL?

Edit: Further, I don't see how W would be considered a hard-line conservative. He introduced the "compassionate conservative" theme to politics. He worked in a bipartisan manner in Texas ... he was BFFs with his Democratic Lieutenant Governor. And he won 69% in 1998. Now, Texas is a moderately right wing state, but a really right wing Republican is not going to get 69% of the vote. More like the 55% or so Ted Cruz won.

Another Edit: If anything, this TL should be reversed, with W as the moderate unifier and Jeb as the hard core conservative.
 
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Japhy

Banned
Responses are organized by theme, rather than by anything else.

Excellent. Just one thing. You refer to HW Bush as the Forty Second president. I'm fairly certain he was the 41st.

Yep Bill Clinton was 42nd, Bush 1 was 41st. Hell W wrote a book about his dad called 41! Interesting story so far.

I too was confused as to why Bill Clinton was hushing Barbara Bush back to sleep. I know the man had extravagant tastes but a Presidential Threeway is a little much.

Thank you all for catching that, it was a very silly, Post-Midnight typo of mine. Though I have to admit I was tempted, very tempted to just say it was along the lines of what Meadow just suggested there...

I like the idea of brother-against-brother (and heck it has happened, look at the Millibands over in Britain).

The plot here is interesting - your POD elegantly unfurled in a manner that real humans would say. There's no 'as you know, Dubya' here. I particularly like the idea of a turn of the millennium 'Miliband of Brothers' scenario with much higher stakes.

In the name of full disclosure the Brothers Milliband were the reason this whole idea started kicking in my head. Lord Roem posted an article on Facebook the other day about David playing the ---as we say in the states--- Monday Morning Quarterback on the recent election in the UK. Hell I even think the interview was on Monday. I was suddenly struck by the idea of doing it in America.

Though the first idea that came into my head was a lifelong duel between Jimmy and Billy Carter. Which shows how mature I am.

And, credit going where credit is due, the stupid title here had more than a little help from Roem's wonderful old little project Cain and Unable about the Brothers.

Amazing Introduction. Cannot wait to read more.

With that out of the way, let me say how glad I am that you're writing something again. Within a minute of the first sentence I was hooked.

You write in a way that - while hoping this does not make me appear arrogant - reminds me of the way Jack and I approached Agent Lavender. These are real people talking, real people with families, egos, pet hates, and hobbies. Not political automatons gasping for air and discussing swings and House races And Nothing Else, Ever.

The pouring of the drinks made me definitely think of Lavender - I think a drinking game that matched the number of whiskies poured in that TL would require a session with a stomach pump.

[...]

I can hear their voices. I can't wait to find out what they say next.

Next thing to say, is PRAISE FOR THE PRAISE GODS. LIKES FOR THE LIKE THRONE.

Thank you both very much for this sort of thing. It means a lot. So does everyone else posting of course, because if you post, that means I'm doing something right. Or not. But you care and that's the cool part.

Meadow, I always always aspire to write like you and Jack do, so it means a lot to be compared. Like you say, "As you know, Bob" is a cheap trick, and so is turning people into wooden figures. I always try to remember a Spielberg Interview I saw once, as he was about to release Lincoln where he noted that most films with the 16th President usually have him walking the halls of the White House talking incessantly about "Full Measures" and various combinations of years and scores. And how no one ever actually talks like that. So yeah, thats why I try to make them all as painfully human as my limited talents allow.

And yes, Drinks are always a good way to show some character. I dunno if Jeb drinks Islay, but I figured it was worth a shot. And that neither he nor Schultz would be Gin drinkers particularly. Or at least not Jeb...

Oh nothing to with anything OTL. Just was picturing him and George debating each other and the awkwardness at ether there moms or dads birthday party's in Maine.

Oh its going to be awkward. Not violent but rather sad. These are two men after all who are pretty damned close, as seen recently by Jeb saying his Brother is his most trusted adviser. It wasn't always so close, but they certainly don't hate each other.

(I hope this one ends with John McCain down to his last mag as DC falls to the W Guard, his eyes wide and delirious, the fight finally back in him. Bombard the Capitol!)

And you know, I always thought that that was the weakest part of that story...

But a major concern I have with this TL is the idea that Jeb would have governed as a moderate had he won in 1994. He ran as a hard right conservative then. And while he sounded less hard shelled in 1998, he was a very conservative governor of Florida, cutting the number of state employees, abolishing racial preferences in higher education, instituting school vouchers, and supporting a very strong pro-life agenda.

Why would he be different in this TL?

Edit: Further, I don't see how W would be considered a hard-line conservative. He introduced the "compassionate conservative" theme to politics. He worked in a bipartisan manner in Texas ... he was BFFs with his Democratic Lieutenant Governor. And he won 69% in 1998. Now, Texas is a moderately right wing state, but a really right wing Republican is not going to get 69% of the vote. More like the 55% or so Ted Cruz won.

Another Edit: If anything, this TL should be reversed, with W as the moderate unifier and Jeb as the hard core conservative.

First, I want to say, I didn't sink this down to this end of the responses to push it out of the way, but because its important and I wanted to make sure it didn't go into the clutter.

In regards to the first point, Jeb ran as an Arch-Conservative in 1994 IOTL and he did lose. I didn't want to push a big deal on it but I'll note in the opening scene he's been giving speeches on "Pragmatism" and "Consensus". That's the divergence. Jeb's campaign here is a far more centirst-themed one, in line with the campaigns he offered in IOTL 1998 and 2002, as well as the one he's trying to sell to the National Party and the United States at large now. Its a decision every campaign for every office in the country makes, and here Jeb decided differently. So there is that.

Now, does he govern differently? No not really. Neither does his Brother in Texas for that matter. And yes, there is a compelling argument that the race should be reversed, Jeb enacted more Conservative Policies, George was certainly more moderate than Rick Perry who was waiting in the wings.

That said, the issue is not just of policy, but of preception. Jeb Bush has always been a master of making himself seem a moderate. If his political ancestery comes from anywhere its he who has been able to cloth himself in the image of his Father, the Vice-President and his Grandfather the Senator. In contrast George's image was that of his Father, The President. That is to say, Jeb could cause the Federal Government to get involved in the removal of the breathing tube of a brain-dead woman and still seem to be the reasonable one who could hear anything out, while George was the son of the man who declared to the world to read his lips instead of talking realistic fiscal policy.

In regards to Compassionate Conservatism, vs Pragmatic Conservatism the issue, its wrong to look at either of them as being particularly located on a left-right spectrum. No, neither Brother was a 1990's Ted Cruz but thats not to say either was really leaning to the left. Compassionate Conservatism was Moral Majoritarianism with better PR. Nothing more, nothing less. Pragmatic Conservatism was the same thing, absolutely conservative, but with an image of being able to work together. In practice Jeb had to pick and choose his battles as he acted because the Democratic Party was a major force in his state. George could afford to buddy up with Bob Bullock because Bullock was a throwback to the last New South where Democrats were no longer Segregationists but were certainly allowed to be Conservative.

And to the Men and Dr. Rice in smoke filled rooms in 1998-1999 George had it. That doesn't go away because of his brother. George has a landslide win which his brother could never have replicated. George has been able to "stand his ground" for Conservatism and get things done. Or at least is seen to have been, while his brother has debated and bartered.

And its not that Jeb is going to run as a Moderate, he and his brother don't have enough political disagreements to really do that, but this is going to be a fight over Presentation. And its Presentation that cost him the support of the Party Higher-ups who think that George's message is better at getting past Gingrichism that Jeb's.

I know its not a perfect excuse for it. But thats more or less how I think it would have gone.
 
In regards to the first point, Jeb ran as an Arch-Conservative in 1994 IOTL and he did lose. I didn't want to push a big deal on it but I'll note in the opening scene he's been giving speeches on "Pragmatism" and "Consensus". That's the divergence. Jeb's campaign here is a far more centirst-themed one, in line with the campaigns he offered in IOTL 1998 and 2002, as well as the one he's trying to sell to the National Party and the United States at large now. Its a decision every campaign for every office in the country makes, and here Jeb decided differently. So there is that.

Now, does he govern differently? No not really. Neither does his Brother in Texas for that matter. And yes, there is a compelling argument that the race should be reversed, Jeb enacted more Conservative Policies, George was certainly more moderate than Rick Perry who was waiting in the wings.

That said, the issue is not just of policy, but of preception. Jeb Bush has always been a master of making himself seem a moderate. If his political ancestery comes from anywhere its he who has been able to cloth himself in the image of his Father, the Vice-President and his Grandfather the Senator. In contrast George's image was that of his Father, The President. That is to say, Jeb could cause the Federal Government to get involved in the removal of the breathing tube of a brain-dead woman and still seem to be the reasonable one who could hear anything out, while George was the son of the man who declared to the world to read his lips instead of talking realistic fiscal policy.

In regards to Compassionate Conservatism, vs Pragmatic Conservatism the issue, its wrong to look at either of them as being particularly located on a left-right spectrum. No, neither Brother was a 1990's Ted Cruz but thats not to say either was really leaning to the left. Compassionate Conservatism was Moral Majoritarianism with better PR. Nothing more, nothing less. Pragmatic Conservatism was the same thing, absolutely conservative, but with an image of being able to work together. In practice Jeb had to pick and choose his battles as he acted because the Democratic Party was a major force in his state. George could afford to buddy up with Bob Bullock because Bullock was a throwback to the last New South where Democrats were no longer Segregationists but were certainly allowed to be Conservative.

And to the Men and Dr. Rice in smoke filled rooms in 1998-1999 George had it. That doesn't go away because of his brother. George has a landslide win which his brother could never have replicated. George has been able to "stand his ground" for Conservatism and get things done. Or at least is seen to have been, while his brother has debated and bartered.

And its not that Jeb is going to run as a Moderate, he and his brother don't have enough political disagreements to really do that, but this is going to be a fight over Presentation. And its Presentation that cost him the support of the Party Higher-ups who think that George's message is better at getting past Gingrichism that Jeb's.

I know its not a perfect excuse for it. But thats more or less how I think it would have gone.
Makes sense, I noticed the subtle shift. If Jeb had squeaked by campaigning as an arch-conservative like IOTL, this could've ended up very similar to 2008, where personality mattered more than ideology. I think it would've been more in line with George W.'s personality to challenge his younger, favorite brother who happened to be the frontrunner, but I can also see a 1999 Jeb being furious at losing his chance "in line" to a party animal who hardly worked a day in his life. Especially since Jeb probably assumed it was his since his 1994 election.
 

Japhy

Banned
Thanks for your response ...makes enough sense for an AH timeline.

I mean to an extent, all of your points are just as sound.

Like I said this was originally envisioned as Jimmy vs Billy Carter so I'm probably just being an idiot.

I should have read the beginning more carefully. :eek:

It was a really minor little thing, I probably should have made it clearer.
 
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