Caillaux Fights On

Joseph Caillaux was a French politician and Prime Minister from 1911-1912 who fought against Conservative elements that sought war with Germany. Caillaux desired better relations with Germany. The discovery of his secret negotiations with Germany to defuse the Second Moroccan Crisis caused a scandal that forced his resignation. Despite this setback, he remained a potent figure in French politics opposing the Three Years Service Bill and championing peace with Germany from 1915 onward. Say Caillaux avoids scandal over the Second Moroccan Crisis and is Prime Minister in 1914. Do we avoid the Great War? Do his policies cause a rift in the Entente?
 

raharris1973

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Maybe? If he's Prime Minister, Russia doesn't mobilize for Serbia, given it doubts French support? I don't see Caillaux being harmful to Anglo-French relations however.

But is there an inherent problem in avoiding the scandals over Morocco - perhaps if he doesn't do secret negotiations, involving some concessions, all we get is WWI in 1911?
 
I was thinking of the possibility of refusing to back Russia against Austria leading to a thawing of affairs with Germany. Will Russia turn it's attentions East, possibly gnawing off Xinjiang and parts of Manchuria? What will the UK? Side with Russia? Support Japan in trying to halt Russian intentions?
 

raharris1973

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I was thinking of the possibility of refusing to back Russia against Austria leading to a thawing of affairs with Germany. Will Russia turn it's attentions East, possibly gnawing off Xinjiang and parts of Manchuria? What will the UK? Side with Russia? Support Japan in trying to halt Russian intentions?
Japan might not even be interested in stopping Russia at this time, at least if it gets compensated in its portion of Manchuria. Russia and Japan had an Entente at the time. Of course it could break and go sour, but it might not.
 

raharris1973

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What else did you imagine happening here. How long could Caillaux keep his luck going? Could France go decades and let the prospect of reavanche stay faded as a practical option perpetually, or is a backlash within France leading to an anti-German policy inevitable?
 
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