Cabinet posts: springboard to the Oval Office?

To the moderators: I'm not sure this is the right place for this-or exactly where it should go. Please move to suit if needed.

Anyhow: in theory (so said William Safire) each cabinet ought to contain one future president. That hasn't really happened. Consider: the last cabinet officer to gain the Oval Office was Herbert Hoover; before him, William Howard Taft. Then one has to go back before the Civil War to find others.

Further: the presidential careers of those attaining the presidency after terms in the cabinet aren't all that stellar. Here they are, to the best of my knowledge:

Thomas Jefferson: lionized on Mt. Rushmore; a great small government theoretician; author of the Declaration of Independence and the Louisiana Purchase; policies toward Great Britain and freedom of the seas pushed the nation closer to war in 1812

James Madison: sort of prosecuted the War of 1812; again, another great theoretician but fairly light on accomplishments

James Monroe: two term president who lucked out by holding office during the Era of Good Feeling

John Quincy Adams: highly capable but seemingly always at odds with everyone

Martin van Buren: ward heeler written large

James Buchanan: ranks dead last among presidents, and deservedly so

William Howard Taft: about average among presidents; far better suited (by his own admission) to the judiciary

Herbert Hoover: great humanitarian and administrator; not so hot as executive (although in fairness a lot of what he started was co-opted and re-branded by Franklin Roosevelt)

So...does Safire's thesis hold up, or is it more pie in the sky?
 
It seems like positions in the Cabinet these days are more likely to serve as the honorable capstone of a political career than a path to further office -- Hillary Clinton, frex.

This is probably due to a variety of reasons, but the simplest explanation is that politicians with Presidential aspirations of their own don't want to tie their fates too closely with the current incumbent, and the incumbent doesn't want somebody who might backstab them later to save their own career. It also seems like, with a few exceptions, Cabinet secretaries either languish in obscurity or resign after catching a disproportionate amount of hell for the incumbent's less popular policies (Rumsfield, Geithner).

EDIT: I'dd add that I can think of a couple of Cabinet officials who could've plausibly made it to the White House -- namely RFK and Mitch Daniels -- but both of them won a different elected office after their service. Can anyone think of somebody who could've plausibly won directly from a Cabinet office?
 
George H.W. Bush springs to mind. He didn't hold cabinet-level positions, but before being elected VP, the last election he won was in '68. Following that he served as UN Ambassador, RNC Chairman, Envoy to China, and DCI.
 

Thande

Donor
Harold Wilson, in his comparative analysis of the US and British political systems, said that he considered the US Cabinet to be more like a gathering of the Permanent Secretaries of the British Civil Service than the British Cabinet: the US Cabinet members are there only to advise the president and carry out his orders, not to play a part in collective power or responsibility. So being a member of the US Cabinet is not a step to the top the way being a member of the British Cabinet is.
 
Well your best shot is probably Hillary but that's a longshot.

I think McCain considered Rice, so if you could change her mind McCain/Rice as the ticket in 2008...

Elizabeth Dole made a bid in 2000.

Rumsfeld ran in 1988 after being WH COS (74-75), NATO Ambassador (73-74), Director of Economic Opportunity (69-70), Sec of Defense (75-77).
 
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