We talked about the 1988 election in Mexico today in one of my classes and I had a thought. What if the PRI didn't steal the election and Cárdenas won instead of Salinas?
Cárdenas Wins in 1988
- Thread starter wilcoxchar
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Here's something I think it would happen. I may be wrong, since I don't have at hand my book about post-WWII Mexican presidents and election history.
It was kind of hard figuring this out, considering I don't have the sources at hand, and also the 1988 elections were a watershed in Mexican politics (as they were the beginning of the end for PRI), and because Miguel de la Madrid's presidency was like a game of Hungry Hippos with idiot balls instead of marbles.
- Maybe we'll see earlier electoral reforms aimed at preventing any kind of election inconsistencies, with PRD and PAN only working together to bugger PRI for the sake of it. Not much of a stretch about what they do now.
- Depending on which kind of people surround Cárdenas, the 1994 devaluation may not be as strong as OTL. However, to avoid it would be really hard due to how the presidencies managed the economy.
- NAFTA will come later than OTL. Cárdenas did not wanted Mexico to be on it until the Mexican agrarian sector was ready for it.
- Lots of social programs. This may strain the budget, but will definitively make Mexico safer in the long run, as the drug cartels would not have so many eager younglings going in for quick cash.
- Salinas gets kicked upstairs into a nonrelevant position in the PRI for some time, and lands into the slammer for some more time due to the corruption charges, along with his brothers. I imagine him getting caught in a similar way as Jorge Emilio Gonzalez's "Chamaqueada".
- The Zapatistas may not appear, or if they do, it would be in a milder form, mostly protesting against the state of neglect that the indigenous people in Chiapas have to deal with on a daily basis. Instead of going up in arms, they go into alternate media as soon as possible. I somewhat expect them to turn Graphic Design into its greatest weapon.
- Those "intellectuals" on La Jornada rejoice when they witness their staunch enemy, PRI, getting ousted from the government. (and proceed to bash Cárdenas for all its worth a year after for being too soft or not quick enough on its social reforms) Their newspaper would still be poorly designed and may go even more far-left.
- On Pop Culture, the telenovela Senda de Gloria would be properly finished (back then, Televisa was the government's lapdog, and given the fact Senda de Gloria glorified the memory of Cárdenas' father on the last episodes - ex-president Lázaro Cárdenas - you can guess how that went...), and the process of disenfranchising itself from the government would start earlier than OTL.
- If Manuel J. Clouthier doesn't eat the bullet in 1988, I can see him vying for the presidency in the 1994 elections. Colosio may also run, and (if he doesn't get killed in Tijuana) he may bring back PRI into power in the time being, considering how much popular support he enjoyed. Those elections are going to be amongst the most fought in the history of Mexico.
- However, it's unlikely that PRI may win the presidentials after 2000. Blame on that the Tabasco hardliners like Madrazo or Labastida, and the fact Cárdenas puts pressure on the Supreme Court to put those responsible for the Dirty War behind bars. That, and if we get AMLO in 2006, he may be president, depending on how well the PRD ran the country on previous periods and how paranoid the business sector gets on this (as their biggest fear was that, supposedly, AMLO was to shut down the NAFTA, which at the end wasn't true, as he actually attempted to remake a few clauses from it).
- The PRD would not fragment like it still does OTL. That would be PRI or PAN's job.
- Televisa may shed away its self-censorship policies (I read some time ago that Emilio Azcárraga Milmo regretted being the government's mouthpiece).
It was kind of hard figuring this out, considering I don't have the sources at hand, and also the 1988 elections were a watershed in Mexican politics (as they were the beginning of the end for PRI), and because Miguel de la Madrid's presidency was like a game of Hungry Hippos with idiot balls instead of marbles.
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@Vault Boy: I agree with your post. Not to mention that Imévision would not be privatized into TV Azteca. For a public broadcasting buff like me, that would be a good sign.
Apart from that, the possibilities are endless. In my opinion, an interesting possibility is if the state-owned stations undergo massive reform into a full-fledged BBC/CBC-style public broadcaster. For the sake of argument, let's say that the new Mexican public broadcaster adopts a Public Broadcasting Trust model as well as the German ARD model (so that state-level public broadcasters are also now involved in the running of both national public radio and national public TV), though allowing for government grants and commercial revenue to be sources of funding. However, as in TTL it would be a public broadcaster, it would have autonomous editorial control from the government (meaning that Cárdenas wouldn't be able to manipulate the news to his liking - nor would the PRI, for that matter).
Both IMER and Imévision would become part of the new Mexican public broadcaster, along with the Department of Public Education's Edusat network and Radio Educación station and the La Red network of state-level broadcasters. Because bureaucrats can be such imaginative at times
rolleyes, the new public broadcaster would retain the IMER acronym, though now meaning the "Instituto Mexicano de la Radiodifusión" (the Mexican Broadcasting Corporation in popular English translation).
As can be expected, at the national level most services are heavily reorganized to conform to the new public broadcasting structure of IMER. As part of that:
*On the radio side:
Apart from that, the possibilities are endless. In my opinion, an interesting possibility is if the state-owned stations undergo massive reform into a full-fledged BBC/CBC-style public broadcaster. For the sake of argument, let's say that the new Mexican public broadcaster adopts a Public Broadcasting Trust model as well as the German ARD model (so that state-level public broadcasters are also now involved in the running of both national public radio and national public TV), though allowing for government grants and commercial revenue to be sources of funding. However, as in TTL it would be a public broadcaster, it would have autonomous editorial control from the government (meaning that Cárdenas wouldn't be able to manipulate the news to his liking - nor would the PRI, for that matter).
Both IMER and Imévision would become part of the new Mexican public broadcaster, along with the Department of Public Education's Edusat network and Radio Educación station and the La Red network of state-level broadcasters. Because bureaucrats can be such imaginative at times
rolleyes, the new public broadcaster would retain the IMER acronym, though now meaning the "Instituto Mexicano de la Radiodifusión" (the Mexican Broadcasting Corporation in popular English translation).As can be expected, at the national level most services are heavily reorganized to conform to the new public broadcasting structure of IMER. As part of that:
*On the radio side:
- Four of the five Mexico City-based MW stations - XEB, XEEP, XEMP, and XEDTL - as well as all three Mexico City-based FM stations - XHIMER-FM, XHIMR-FM, and XHOF-FM - become anchor stations to new national networks
- These national networks would be Radio México (XEB; similar to BBC Radio 4 or CBC Radio One, particularly vis-à-vis CBC Radio One's regional structure), Radio Ciudadana (XEEP; similar to the old BBC Third Programme whilst continuting its OTL role as an educational radio station), Radio Información (XEMP; similar to OTL Radio Ciudadana and BBC Radio Five Live), and Radio Juventud (XERIN, in OTL XEDTL; essentially similar to its role as Radio Infantil then and taking over OTL XEMP's role and hence similar to BBC Radio 1 and the old BBC Radio 5), plus the existing Opus (XHIMR-FM), Horizonte (XHIMR-FM, though more broadened and similar to BBC Radio 2 or CBC Radio 2) and Láser (XHOF-FM; in OTL Reactor, though now more broadened and somewhat similar to CBC Radio 3) FM stations which are now national.
- Outside of México City (where IMER owns the local radio station) and the national networks, the state broadcasters handle all regional broadcasting and stations owned by IMER in OTL are devolved to the states (with the exception of XERF in Ciudad Acuña, which could be used as a relay station for XERMX-Radio México Internacional, and the stations in Chiapas).
- IMER also makes a substantial investment in international broadcasting, and thus broaden XERMX-Radio México Internacional into a continuous 24-hour service, with international relays where needed (although the Spanish programming does relay domestic programming, which is aimed for the Mexican diaspora), as well as international satellite TV services intended for reception outside México - including the potential to develop a regional al-Jazeera which would rivate OTL's TeleSUR. These could also include Latin American uses of the Edusat network.
- A massive reorganization of Imévision's networks is underway, even more so with the decision to extend Canal 22's coverage into a nationwide network.
- As a result, the first step is a name change. OTL's Azteca 13 and Azteca 7, as well as Canal 22, are now IMER Canal 1, IMER Canal 2, and IMER Canal 3, respectively.
- IMER Canal 3 is the easiest to describe - it is essentially similar to PBS in the US, BBC2 and BBC4 in the UK, CBC Bold or artv in Canada, or France 3. As such, it is a cultural and educational network with secondary general entertainment, made up of national programming from México City and regional programming - a higher amount than usual for Mexico, as each IMER Canal 3 station is autonomous and run by the state broadcasters. As such, the IMER Canal 3 stations take on the identity of the state they are located in: i.e. IMER Canal 3 Baja California del Norte (in this case, also airing English-language programming for the benefit of tourists and residents of San Diego and the Imperial Valley), IMER Canal 3 Yucatán, etc. IMER Canal 3 is commercial-free.
- IMER Canal 1 is also somewhat easy to describe. Essentially, as in OTL, it's the flagship station; unlike OTL, what we have are OTL Azteca 13's programming and Azteca 7's programming crammed into one network. As such, in addition to news, current affairs, novelas, variety programmes, and sports (particularly fútbol and lucha libre), it's a general entertainment channel that tries to offer something for everyone, even if it tends to be more "family-friendly" than Televisa. In addition, since in TTL IMER Canal 1 has a public-service remit, there would definitely be some changes in Canal 1's output, particularly in its news coverage and expansion of its programming output to cover areas that Televisa and the OTL TV Azteca would not cover (in one instance, regional news). This actually makes IMER Canal 1 more like TVN Chile than Televisa Canal 2/Canal de las Estrellas.
- That leaves IMER Canal 2, whose mission is different than the OTL Azteca 7. Here, unlike the entertainment-oriented IMER Canal 1 and the arts, education, & regions-oriented IMER Canal 3, IMER Canal 2 is essentially a national terrestrial/FTA version of CNN or C-SPAN in the US, the Documentary Channel, Newsworld (both the original incarnation and its current incarnation as the CBC News Network), and CPAC in Canada, EinsFestival and EinsExtra in Germany, or France 5. Any programming falling outside of this would be variety programming, surplus sports coverage, children's programming, or relays of TV UNAM, and in those cases could be conveniently put off for the weekends.
- Edusat would largely continue on as before, so for the most part no changes there. As stated above, IMER could also have some energy to develop some international and pan-Latin American TV services, including a TeleSUR competitor.
- Oh, and maybe in TTL Mexico becomes a leader in digital technology for broadcast media, and not just in Latin America.
It would be safe today to take the trip down to Monterrey that I want to. I could probably even drive quite a bit more to Veracruz or Tampico if I wanted to. Monterrey's a hard drive, but I'm used to getting all the way to Jacksonville or Atlanta in a day.
I way this map app on another site that showed drug related murders in Mexico. Tampico had almost no murders while Veracruz was plastered. What's the difference?
I way this map app on another site that showed drug related murders in Mexico. Tampico had almost no murders while Veracruz was plastered. What's the difference?
Well, now that you mention it, there's also Canal Once and Canal 40. The first one would get some degree of autonomy on what they are going to air (I imagine it evolving eventually into something like G4 once the IT boom rolls in, only with documentaries thrown in). The second one (which appeaered in 1995) may appear earlier due to the butterflies, and would be an independent news network.
Also, Baja California would get all of the channels from central Mexico as soon as 1992 (IIRC, Tijuana only had the local channel, the two from TV Azteca and those from San Diego in OTL, and the rest of the channels appeared until late 1999).
With all that you mentioned, on another Pop-culture note, Mexico's 90's anime boom (incidentally caused by TV Azteca) would be different from OTL (which was caused because TV Azteca needed filler programming, so they bought on the cheap some anime series thinking that they were all for children). The go-to series would be (in this ATL) Dragon Ball and Captain Tsubasa, with Pokémon and Digimon making headlines at the same time as in the U.S.
Man, you are inspiring me onto attempting to make an ATL. I salute you...
It would be awesome to see a TL with this POD Vault Boy! A Mexico with the fall of the PRI happening before NAFTA would be very interesting.
What book is that? And you should make a TL here. We need more Mexican TLs, and your will most likely be a great one as well. I can't think of a single 20th century Mexican TL, which is sad.
Hmm, IIRC Proyecto 40 (aka Canal 40) was privately owned before becoming affiliated with TV Azteca. In TTL, IMER Canal 2 takes over much of Proyecto 40's role. However, since it's a full-fledged station, maybe that station could be used by TV UNAM so that it could reach the entire DF (presumably as a local station), in addition to its existing low-power TV station on ch60 (in TTL) and Edusat slot.
What helps is that, looking at the La Red website, both Once TV and TV UNAM are members of La Red. Those two could fulfill some of the criterion for being regional TV stations. Apart from that, yes, Once TV would presumably have its own national network and autonomy in its programming. Indeed, looking at the members representing the DF in the La Red website, I see:
- IMER, Conaculta (as Televisión Metropolitana/Canal 22), Radio Educación, the Directorate-General for Educational Television, and the Latin American Institue for Educational Communication - the obvious ones, which in TTL are part of the *new* IMER
- Radio UNAM and TV UNAM, which I would definitely think would have autonomy, as they are owned by a university
- Once TV, as already stated, which like Radio UNAM and TV UNAM would be autonomous as they are owned by a university
- Three members which I find interesting - the Ibero-American University's radio station, a system of community radio stations for indigenous peoples, and the Canal del Congreso and Canal Judicial, which I'm assuming is a Mexican version of C-SPAN. Of those three, the latter three could be integrated into IMER, whilst the former would be in the same boat as Radio UNAM. As for the network of indigenous-language community radio stations - presumably the support they get from IMER is technical, as well as national news bullitens from México City.
- There are also, on that list in the La Red website, state-level broadcasters and state-level university-owned broadcasters. The state-level university broadcasters would probably be left alone, as mentioned with the other university broadcasters in the DF (and/or they could federate, along with TV UNAM, into a separate network similar to IMER Canal 3). What is interesting, however, is that a number of states are missing from the list (Baja California, for example) - presumably, once those structures are set up under IMER auspices, the list would be complete.
Oh, definitely - particularly, in IMER's case, the expansion of its new national radio networks. In addition to the two from OTL TV Azteca, we could add a third as the regional station for Baja California, thereby giving us TTL IMER's complete new television portfolio. That forces Televisa to scramble to get its portfolio into Baja California.
Definitely would be different.
Man, you are inspiring me onto attempting to make an ATL. I salute you...
De nada.
Go right ahead - if you need help on the broadcasting front, then please - copy off what I wrote down and make it your own, or just PM me.Don't remember the name, as I don't have the book anymore. I still have some photocopies about the presidencies from the 1940's and afterwards. And I also have a doorstopper-sized High School textbook that covers from the Neolithic up to Fox's early presidency and the late 20th century with a lot of detail, and a few e-books from the UABC that I can read online. Those will come in handy.
And I also have Dieter Nohlen's Elections in the Americas: A data handbook, Volume I, which covers many elections in Mexico.
The only thing that might be hard to define is how will the U.S. react to the news that Cárdenas is a socialist (and instigating any support manoeuver against Cárdenas would only sink public opinion against the US further, I think), and the fate of several state-owned companies. I think Telmex will privatize, however, due to the fact the government handling of this company is so terrible that it is almost necessary to do so.
Whoa, thanks for all the info. I'll take in account the help whenever I get stuck on something.
Now, time to do some writing. Now I'm all fired up.
Well, IIRC 1988 is an election year in the US as well. The fact that Cárdenas is a socialist would probably be left to slide and the fact that a non-PRI candidate has won, breaking that long political dynasty, would be publicized. So I wouldn't be surprised if - due to that type of selective memory - Washington congratulated Cárdenas on his victory. My opinion, at least.
Once again, de nada. Always a pleasure.