Byzantine wank
- Thread starter Eivind
- Start date
If we go in that direction, by 2000 the ERE controls the world! Just need a very long time with no terrible emperors and no disasters that can do enough damage to the empire (say the plague of Justinian affects india instead of Anatolia).
Unrealistic, definitely. But if you do it slow enough and over a long period of time, it stops being in ASB territory as it is far more gradual.
- BNC
Unrealistic, definitely. But if you do it slow enough and over a long period of time, it stops being in ASB territory as it is far more gradual.
- BNC
Best approach would be for Justinian to trust Belisarius, give him the troops needed to take Italy over without too much damage, and then let the good rep of Belisarius bring the Goths into the army, making up for the manpower spend in Africa and Italia. This would certainly change the reign of Justinian. If the rule of the Goths is based on B's good rep, then the plague could well be weathered on that. The larger manpower pool (if hit by the plague itself) would enable the Empire to expand further, solidify Africa, and move on to Spain in time. Just start with a decent army so that Belisarius can remain honest, good, and kind in the eyes of the Goths, and let that reputation buoy the Empire.
Or have Justinian not recover from the plague in 540, thence Belisarius becomes emperor and trusts himself.
The problem with that is that if Belisarius' successors aren't as honourable as he is, people will soon start to regret throwing their lot in with Constantinople. That's more or less what happened IOTL.
That is too late, he shattered the trust in 538 when he tricked them with a feigned acceptance of the WRE. It needs to be before that to retain his reputation. If we could have both that would be nice, but we don't know if Belisarius would be a good statesman. I'd prefer him living longer as he'd be a fantastic way to keep the military loyal to the Emperor. He'd also be perfect for a witness of the heir.
Apart from he'd already shattered his reputation, sadly. All the gains I'm suggesting the Empire relies upon rest on that. His reputation needs to do the heavy lifting (metaphorically) until the Empire recovers from the plague - at which point it can garrison the area in strength, as the east would recover before Italia. After that peace and recovery from the plague would probably lead to an increase of loyalty in Italia.
ERE wank during Justinian's reign:
Step 1. Actually win the war against the Sassanids and have THEM pay HIM tribute (or at least status quo ante)
Step 2. Conquer Vandals similar to OTL
Step 3
a. Appoint people that are actually even the tiniest bit diplomatic towards the Maurs and keep the latter content
b. Once fighting in Italy stops, conduct massive war of aggression against the Maurs, burning their cities and enslaving their people
Step 4. Marry Amalasuntha before she gets killed and send maximal possible aid in order to win the ensuing Gothic Civil War in Italy ASAP, preventing devastation and long conflict
Step 5. Work towards integrating the loyalist Goths. Also see step 7 and 8
Step 6. Somehow butterfly away the Plague
Step 7. Father one healthy and intelligent boy with the Gothic queen, and lots of daughters. Prep him for rulership
Step 8. Successfully push for unified position on the nature of Christ (maybe something like Monothelitism?) that unifies mainstream Chalcedonians, Myaphisites and Monophysites and pushes conflicting viewpoints towards the fringes
Step 9. Conquer Spain from the divided Visigoths with the money saved up from no prolonged Italian and African conflicts
Step 10. Conquer southern Gaul from the Franks and use it as a buffer, to keep Italy and Spain safe.
Step 11. Periodically raid into Frankish and Slavic territory to keep them weak and divided.
Step 12. Disband most of the Mediterranean fleet
Step 13. Use savings to build a strong fleet and a string of outposts in the Red Sea to control trade from India and beyond
Step 14. Appoint son as co-emperor and gradually withdraw from public life prior to death
Step 1. Actually win the war against the Sassanids and have THEM pay HIM tribute (or at least status quo ante)
Step 2. Conquer Vandals similar to OTL
Step 3
a. Appoint people that are actually even the tiniest bit diplomatic towards the Maurs and keep the latter content
b. Once fighting in Italy stops, conduct massive war of aggression against the Maurs, burning their cities and enslaving their people
Step 4. Marry Amalasuntha before she gets killed and send maximal possible aid in order to win the ensuing Gothic Civil War in Italy ASAP, preventing devastation and long conflict
Step 5. Work towards integrating the loyalist Goths. Also see step 7 and 8
Step 6. Somehow butterfly away the Plague
Step 7. Father one healthy and intelligent boy with the Gothic queen, and lots of daughters. Prep him for rulership
Step 8. Successfully push for unified position on the nature of Christ (maybe something like Monothelitism?) that unifies mainstream Chalcedonians, Myaphisites and Monophysites and pushes conflicting viewpoints towards the fringes
Step 9. Conquer Spain from the divided Visigoths with the money saved up from no prolonged Italian and African conflicts
Step 10. Conquer southern Gaul from the Franks and use it as a buffer, to keep Italy and Spain safe.
Step 11. Periodically raid into Frankish and Slavic territory to keep them weak and divided.
Step 12. Disband most of the Mediterranean fleet
Step 13. Use savings to build a strong fleet and a string of outposts in the Red Sea to control trade from India and beyond
Step 14. Appoint son as co-emperor and gradually withdraw from public life prior to death
Get captured by pirates and realize that this was the dumbest decision of your life. Then try to imitate Caesar.
Step 15. Throw a party, confess that you're gay and force the pope to marry you with your lover.
I agree totally that Justinian´s reign could have been even more successful if he had trusted Belisarius. That is why I put the earliest POD at the beginning, and not the end of Justinian´s reign. As I have argued earlier, the fact that he created so many obstacles for Belisarius is reason to argue that he should not be considered "great": https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/justinian-anything-but-great.367739/#post-11340174
Belisarius was a great military mind, but he would be an awful ruler. His interest and ability started and stopped at commanding armies. Given his record of alienating just about everyone else he worked with in Italy, I don't think he'd last long as an emperor, or be a particularly good one. Belisarius was perfect right where he was, as the right hand man of a capable emperor. Too bad Justinian repeatedly lost his trust in him.
Pirates don't suddenly materialize in the open sea. They need bases to raid from. Where are they going to do that? It's no coincidence piracy in the Roman Empire largely ceased once they had control of the entire Mediterranean coastline, even while their fleet sat in port most of the time.
Deleted member 67076
Belisarius would not become emperor nor would he be a particularly good one. The man did not have the political experience or contacts that Justinian had.
He was a good general but that's pretty much it.
Not to mention, if he had the slightest ambition to become emperor, given all the opportunities Justinian provided him to justify an attempted usurpation, he would have tried IOTL. He never really had any interest in anything other than commanding armies.
In the scenario @Magnum proposes, the Byzantine forces are disseminated around the whole Mediterranean - an effective control of the coastline isn't possible in such a case; for example, with what armies to you want to occupy Spain and southern France, while leading raids against the Franks and Slavs at the same time? Disbanding the fleet is, in such a situation, the best you can do to have pirates materialize on the seas. And even if you control the coast, you have to secure the islands too! Corsica, Sardinia, but also "little" islands like Elba can be used as bases for pirates without more ado.
That's why my idea for a Byzantine wank is:
- Forget about the west. Maintain a large fleet to protect Byzantium against western powers (Franks, Langobards, Spaniards of all kind and Vandals, later the Venetians and Genuese).
- Use the armies Justinian used to invade Italy to protect the Danube. Protecting the Danube is crucial to prevent a Slavic occupation of the Balkans. Also, Illyricum/Pannonia are romanized regions and a great manpower pool for the army.
- Establish strong defenses in the east. Byzantium hasn't the means to conquer Persia or even Mesopotamia, but it can avoid loosing money or territory to the Persians. Build forts and cities (or improve the existing one). Reinforce the Byzantine cavalry to fight against the superb Persian horsemen.
- This will butterfly away Muhammad and maybe even the Arabian conquests (no Arabian invasion of Egypt and Syria is a Byzantine wank for itself).
- Think about conquering North Africa, but to it systematically. Once you have occupied it, concentrate on defending the southern border of the Empire.
Yet the Romans still maintained a fleet, because if they didn't have a fleet at all, their major port cities would become pirate bases.
Well not the major cities (these were usually loyal to the central government), but on ragged coastlines and in little villages on the sea it was very well possible to practice piracy with little and fast ships.
Just to play Justinian´s advocate, is it not possible that Justinian by robbing Belisarius of power made it more difficult for him to make a coup? Did Justinian really have a reason for distrusting Belisarius, or was he simply paranoid?
Of course, even if Justinian with the help of Belisarius had managed to conquer more territory, the problem would be to keep it. One thing is the possibility of an attack by Arab tribes as in OTL, but even if such an attack had been less succesful, the empire would have to deal with the problem of religious disunity. As mentioned by, the Christological debate would have to be solved, which would be easier said than done. The empire would have problems not just with keeping the west, but also areas like Egypt and Syria.
It'd not like the Roman Navy was operating convoys protecting large numbers of merchant ships OTL when they controlled the whole Med.
Usually, when there's a pirate attack, it's pretty easy to figure out where they're from, and then have the local Exarch deal with the villages appropriately. As long as there's law and order and the government has the only army around (i.e. a monopoly on violence), piracy without a safe heaven would be more of a law enforcement than a military problem.
A large military fleet capable of e.g. taking on the Vandal Navy and carrying out opposed landings of 10k+ troops isn't really needed anymore if everything west of the Pillars of Hercules answers to Constantinople. Sure, you can keep a small cadre and shift it around from hotspot to hotspot, but anything larger is just wasteful IMO.
Also, the Canal of the Pharaohs is probably still in use at this point (or would be repaired if need be, as the Arabs did some decades later), meaning you can quickly withdraw ships from the Red Sea when needed.
Also, I forgot to mention this idea in my earlier post:
Step 0. Prevent the Nika Riots from ever happening.
Sure, they solidified Justinian's regime, but that would have happened regardless after military victories, and the riots themselves were incredibly costly, both in terms of destruction and lives lost, and in terms of the cost of repairs - e.g. rebuilding of the Hagia Sophia. Keep the demes happy, and Justinian doesn't have a justification to spend like a madman on building projects and can instead divert his attention to restoring the west.
Step 0. Prevent the Nika Riots from ever happening.
Sure, they solidified Justinian's regime, but that would have happened regardless after military victories, and the riots themselves were incredibly costly, both in terms of destruction and lives lost, and in terms of the cost of repairs - e.g. rebuilding of the Hagia Sophia. Keep the demes happy, and Justinian doesn't have a justification to spend like a madman on building projects and can instead divert his attention to restoring the west.
As is there an army? Do your empire have enough manpower to occupy all the areas you want to conquer and enforce the law at the same time?