Byzantine Cyprus

After the Third Crusade, the whole crusader movement declined greatly. It's probable that an early failure or the fourth expedition (that wasn't really supported outside private initiative) would lead to a quicker abandon of sacred expedition, critically against Christians (the success of 4th Crusade against Constantinople broke a mental border here).

Take a look on the following expeditions : if the Fifth one was more serious, the Sixth crusade was a diplomatic promenade and the two others were Capetian projects fought against by other christian powers (admittedly, the last one was only but a pro-Angevine expedition)

And yes, while crusaders never waited Byzantines to help them giving an occasion to be hostile, Imperial diplomacy and unstability greatly helped to reinforce such feelings.
Emperors like Manuel I, that managed to have the friendship of Latin while keeping Byzantine interests at heart were too rare.
The superiority complex Greek had over western Christians and a somewhat despising attitude (that could degenerate in riots more or less supported by the power), that is existing far before 1204, didn't helped at all.

Now, no slaughter of Latins in Constantinople (that's basically why Barbarossa threatened the Byzantine EMpire) could really do wonders about 4th crusades and we could see more crusaders joining with Monfort to refuse to attack the city, making an assault impossible.
 
I agree that the Fourth Crusade needn't have unfolded the way it did, but some sort of attack from the West had been on the horizon for a long time. From the time of the First Crusade, the crusaders had (usually unfairly) blamed Byzantine treachery for their failures, there had been crusader attacks on Byzantine territory in the east from the early 1100s on, and Frederick Barbarossa came close to attacking during the Third Crusade. He had even sought the pope's blessing for a crusade against Byzantium although nothing came of it.

Oh aye, but that would probably be like what happened in 1185 (Sicily's attack). Less "The West" and more specific parties, possibly in unison.
 
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