Assume the Crusade of Varna goes swimmingly, and the Ottomans are defeating resoundingly. How much land - if any - do you think the Crusaders would give to the Byzantines?
Byzantine Borders after Successful Crusade of Varna?
- Thread starter DominusNovus
- Start date
Martinus Padueius
Banned
Just to start I wanna say that it's unlikely the Ottomans can't bounce back decently from such a defeat. At this time in history demographics and their military and administration are all in their favor. Most reasonable conquests of the crusade are everything north of Thrace and Greek Macedonia, and west of Thessaly (not including Greece proper).
Doubtful they would be given any. They'd been on a two century long downward projection and you need to consider power projection. You can give them lands (why?), but can they even hold those lands. Probably not.
The Bulgarian rebels who participated would certainly create some sort of Bulgar state, ruling out Thrace for the Byzantines. Hungarian power might be asserted in Bosnia and Serbia, and a Hungary-beholden Serbian kingdom might be set up. Italians might be interested in and around Albania and Epirus.
If local Greek rulers are set up anywhere, they'll definitely rely on the crusaders and western Europe for survival against the Ottomans. Why waste all your effort by handing the lands to the Byzantines who have proven their incompetence and as stated have no power projection?
Doubtful they would be given any. They'd been on a two century long downward projection and you need to consider power projection. You can give them lands (why?), but can they even hold those lands. Probably not.
The Bulgarian rebels who participated would certainly create some sort of Bulgar state, ruling out Thrace for the Byzantines. Hungarian power might be asserted in Bosnia and Serbia, and a Hungary-beholden Serbian kingdom might be set up. Italians might be interested in and around Albania and Epirus.
If local Greek rulers are set up anywhere, they'll definitely rely on the crusaders and western Europe for survival against the Ottomans. Why waste all your effort by handing the lands to the Byzantines who have proven their incompetence and as stated have no power projection?
There was an informal agreement between the Pope and John Hunyadi, at least, that the crown of Bulgaria would be restored and given to him (though who knows if that would have gone through, not sure what the emperor would have to say.) Overall, while the Byzantines might recover some land in the Balkans, the majority of it would go to the other nations that had existed there between the Byzantines receding and the Ottoman conquest; Serbia, Hungary, Wallachia, and perhaps a restored Bulgaria. This might put the Byzantines in a better position to hold onto parts of Greece, but I honestly think most of that would be swallowed up by Venice. The crusaders and their backers had no particular fondness for the Byzantine court, and the Empire as a major military force had been doomed for a century.
Both Jon VIII and his son were capable men, as indeed had many of the Palaiologoi of the last 50-60 years been (particularly Manuel II). It's not implausible that in a total Ottoman defeat, followed by another civil war, that they could regain Thessaloniki and some minor territories in Eastern Thrace - that is, restore the borders of 1410. Did the Romans still hold Mesembria in the 1440's? That is a plausible, though not inevitable, gain. Otherwise, a few islands here and there are not impossible.
Fundamentally, the Romans had become entirely reactionary in strategic terms outside of the Morea. Any territory other than Constantinople itself outside of the Peloponnese is essentially indefensible in the face of an undistracted opponent. The best hope they can have after Varna is that the Ottoman hegemony is replaced by a range of medium sized competing states that are strong enough to avoid outside conquest, and weak enough to prevent one coalescing. That, combined with a steady advance in the Morea and into the rest of southern Greece, could provide for more longevity.
Fundamentally, the Romans had become entirely reactionary in strategic terms outside of the Morea. Any territory other than Constantinople itself outside of the Peloponnese is essentially indefensible in the face of an undistracted opponent. The best hope they can have after Varna is that the Ottoman hegemony is replaced by a range of medium sized competing states that are strong enough to avoid outside conquest, and weak enough to prevent one coalescing. That, combined with a steady advance in the Morea and into the rest of southern Greece, could provide for more longevity.
A defeat at Varna won't be enough to kick the Ottomans out of Europe on its own. Maybe in Venice joins the fray and blockades the Straits while the crusaders siege Edirne/Adrianople that can happen but I doubt it personally. Buzantium would not receive any lands that it can't conquer by itself. Luckily Constantine despot of Morea and later Emperor had vassalized Athens and could take Thessaly with an Ottoman defeat and maybe there is a slight chance that he gets Thessaloniki as well although the Serbians might have some objections to that.
Overall I think either Skopje or Ioannina or Thessaloniki would be a capital for a new crusader state while Serbia would gain Kosovo and some more cities ,the Byzantines/Moreans would get Thessaly and maybe Epirus if they conquer or vassalize it.Bulgaria would be created under Hungarian protection and Wallachia would gain Dobruja and the Hungarians ,other that Bulgaria,would consolidate their Balkan superiority.
Overall I think either Skopje or Ioannina or Thessaloniki would be a capital for a new crusader state while Serbia would gain Kosovo and some more cities ,the Byzantines/Moreans would get Thessaly and maybe Epirus if they conquer or vassalize it.Bulgaria would be created under Hungarian protection and Wallachia would gain Dobruja and the Hungarians ,other that Bulgaria,would consolidate their Balkan superiority.
pls don't ban me
Monthly Donor
there is a problem. the Bulgarian rebels were led by the son of the last Bulgarian emperor. if Hunyady seizes the throne, Bulgarians will rebel again, they want a Bulgarian to rule them
What can give way for the strange situation of the ottomans literally supporting the rebels who were revolting against them last year
This reminds me of when I played in Eu4 amd I let my rebels take care of invading armies before mopping up the mess once both sides are exhausted. Realistically yesterday's enemies are today's friends in the bizzare world of Realpolitik.What can give way for the strange situation of the ottomans literally supporting the rebels who were revolting against them last year