(Byron Lives) Alternate German Situation

The year is 1865. The German Unification movement was stillborn, with liberal reaction in Prussia crushed in the 1848 revolutions, with Friedrich Wilhelm IV subsequently withdrawing into isolationist paranoia.

After his death in 1861, He is succeeded by his brother, Wilhelm I (1797-1863), who immediately has to deal with liberal revolutionary activity across the nation. He turns the troops on the rebels, but through a combination of the defection of armed forces to the liberal rebels, and effective guerrilla activity, the three-sided Prussian Civil War (1861-63) is only just beginning. ‘Ethnic’ rebel forces take the city of Posen in 1862, deposing the official administration, and tighten their control over the surrounding areas. When, in the chaos, Wilhelm I of Prussia is assassinated by a rebel gunman, Crown Prince Friedrich (1831-93) becomes a King over a nation in anarchy. Liberal rebel forces take Berlin in early 1863, and the monarchy flees to the Prussian territories in Westphalia. The ‘liberal’ rebels declare the remaining territory in Brandenburg an independent liberal Republic – the Republic of Brandenburg. Westphalia is effectively transformed into a constitutional monarchy, albeit a reactionary and militaristic one. Over the following year it becomes clear to the new Brandenburg administration that the ‘ethnic’ rebels value their independence and liberal, cannot remain part of the Republic of Brandenburg. A plebiscite in summer 1864 returns an overwhelming majority of the Poznan area who wish to secede from Brandenburg. Elections to the government of the new Republic of Poznan are held the following spring. Meanwhile, Friedrich consolidates his control over the Prussian territory of Westphalia.

1863-65, buoyed by the successes of surrounding nations in the Prussian Civil War and the Habsburg Collapse, a ‘January Uprising’ in Russian-controlled Congress Poland in dramatically more successful. With support from the Grand Duchy of Krakow and the new Republics of Brandenburg and Poznan, a two-year War of Polish Independence is fought, culminating in Russia’s surrender when rumours of a mobilization of the armed forces of the Hungarian Republic are heard by Tsar Alexander II. Russia cedes the territories of Congress Poland to strengthen the fledgling Republic of Greater Poznan.

1863-65, the ‘German Wars’ see many changes as the German states attempt to stabilise the balance of power – there is a dynastic unification of the three Mecklenburgs (butterfly effect); with British support, George V negotiates the union of Hanover with neighbouring Oldenburg territory, Bremen, Hamburg, and Brunswick; Prussia occupies Waldeck; Hesse unites with Frankfurt and Nassau to create Hesse-Nassau; Baden unites with Württemberg to form Baden-Württemberg; and many of the smaller ‘free cities’ and Grand Duchies (especially enclaves) are swallowed, albeit fairly peacefully, by neighbouring states. Luxembourg is conquered by Westphalia, and a war with Franco-Westphalian war is starting to look increasingly likely...

German-Situation.gif
 
With no German Confederation, the only remaining structure of German identity is that of the Zollverein - which I am looking to expand over time as a possible EUesque proto-economic community. I certainly forsee the potential membership of the North Italian Confederation, the Netherlands, Flanders, Wallonia (albeit against the wishes of the French), Poznan, Krakow, and possibly even Hungary, eventually.
 
Also, I'm not sure why the consolidation is going so smoothly. I'd think that princes would be reluctant to give up their thrones. For example, in WW1, I bleieve the King of Wurrtemburg attempted desparately to hold on to his throne even as all other german monarchies gave up, but in this TL he seems to give his state to Baden? (Or is it the other way around)
 
Justin Pickard said:
When the monarchy turn absolutist and repressive.

And so, the people to rise in revolt aren't the workers and industrialists of the Rhineland, but the junkers?
 
Faeelin said:
And so, the people to rise in revolt aren't the workers and industrialists of the Rhineland, but the junkers?
Yes, frankly I was going to ask the same question. The junkers revolting against a Hoenzollern king is, shall we say unlikely?

OTOH, a successful Polish revolt is quite nice. I was just mentioning it in the Italian thread, but without many hopes :D
 
Basically, what I wanted happening in German territories was the following:

- Two Polands
- No German Unification Movement
- The Zollverein able to be expanded into some kind of central European Customs Union.
- Germany fairly internally involved until 1865 - skirmishes, small wars etc.

So, if anyone has some constructive suggestions / ideas, especially having looked at the (Byron Lives) Italian Situation thread, please post here.

I know I'm probably going have to rehash my German plans, I'm just not quite sure how...
 
All this will be happening right over the Rhine and Napoleon III won't be sticking his nose in? I'd expect him to be involved in the Poznan/Poland affairs especially. Remember his family's link with the Grand Duchy of Warsaw.

You mention a Hapsburgh collapse. Does Hungary finally break away? I think that may be rather beneficial for what is left of the Hapsburgh empire!


Bill
 
I am afraid I do not know enough about German politics around the middle 19th Century to give more than qualitative solutions.
Let's see if we can draw down a few points:
  • it would be surprising if there were not a nationalist movement in Germany, in particular with the example of Italy, Hungary, Poland, Greece;
  • Austria has been severely cut down, both on the Hungarian side and in Italy: it is likely that they recognise themselves more and more as "Germans", and try to meddle in Germany proper;
  • Bavaria must be frightened enough by this Austrian imperialism to lean more an more toward France;
  • I like the idea of a cut down Prussia: however, lets assume that Westphalia rebels, and becomes a republic. The rump Prussia remains under Hoenzollern, and it is a deeply embittered country, who relies more and more on a Russian alliance;
  • there is a significant British involvment here: the British policy should be to avoid anyone to gain upper hand in Germany, and in particular to avoid any French intervention. I would expect friendly relations with Westphalia and Denmark;
  • historically, France is always the first to make a move in a stalled situation: there has been no Mexican adventure, and France should be quite rich at this point. Shall we have a lil adventure in Wallonia? alternatively, they might try to coerce Hesse-Kassel, and to draw Saxony in a Franco-Bavarian alliance;
  • Poland is victorious, at this point, and free after almost 100 years. OTOH, the Russian bear is still watching from the border. The natural allies should be Hungary and Kracow;
  • I think the time for the Belgian Wars has come: France-Bavaria-Prussia vs. UK-Holland-Denmark-Westphalia? Should be a no-contest, in particular if Italy is willing to open a southern front
  • I am almost convinced that Austria will sit this out. Unless they try to grab something in Germany.
Just a last footnote: it is a bit early to expand the Zollverein. I would wait for a stabilization of Europe, say another 10-15 years.
 
Bill Cameron said:
All this will be happening right over the Rhine and Napoleon III won't be sticking his nose in? I'd expect him to be involved in the Poznan/Poland affairs especially. Remember his family's link with the Grand Duchy of Warsaw.

You mention a Hapsburgh collapse. Does Hungary finally break away? I think that may be rather beneficial for what is left of the Hapsburgh empire!


Bill

Nappy III didn't get into power as the french monarchy survived under the Orleanist King Ferdinand who in TTL avoided a carriage accident when visiting his sister who married the King of Greece, in time for the birth of their youngest son in 1842.

Hungary is currently seperate from the Austrian Empire, but retains Franz Josef as it's head of state. It is a parliamentary democracy under the constitutional monarch.
 
It would be surprising if there were not a nationalist movement in Germany, in particular with the example of Italy, Hungary, Poland, Greece

With an absolutist Prussia and no 'Landtag', Bismark does not find his way into Politics. By the 1860s I see him as a lawyer or publisher of some description.

Austria has been severely cut down, both on the Hungarian side and in Italy: it is likely that they recognise themselves more and more as "Germans", and try to meddle in Germany proper;

Agreed. They were the only part of the Habsburg Empire which was part of the Zollverein. Even today, Austria has more culturally in common with Germany (especially parts of Bavaria) than seperate nationhood would warrant.

Bavaria must be frightened enough by this Austrian imperialism to lean more and more toward France;

Agreed. Possibly an Austro-French War in the future? Or is Austria simply too weak for the time being?

I like the idea of a cut down Prussia: however, lets assume that Westphalia rebels, and becomes a republic. The rump Prussia remains under Hoenzollern, and it is a deeply embittered country, who relies more and more on a Russian alliance;

Okay, rump Prussia would have to deal with Polish sentiments. I can see a longer civil war of attrition working out here.

there is a significant British involvment here: the British policy should be to avoid anyone to gain upper hand in Germany, and in particular to avoid any French intervention. I would expect friendly relations with Westphalia and Denmark;

The British would still have strong links to Hanover, with Ernest Augustus (1771-1851) being Victoria's uncle, and George V (1819-1878) - her cousin.

historically, France is always the first to make a move in a stalled situation: there has been no Mexican adventure, and France should be quite rich at this point. Shall we have a lil adventure in Wallonia? alternatively, they might try to coerce Hesse-Kassel, and to draw Saxony in a Franco-Bavarian alliance;

Esentially, the existence of Wallonia is a result of the fact that the newly independent Belgium in 1830 ends up with an Orleanist monarch - Louis, Duc d’Nemours (1814-96) - and, rather than being recognised by the Netherlands, ends up as a perpetual battlefield between Dutch and French forces.

A cease fire of sorts is reached in 1852, dependent on the Dutch occupation of a small area of the North East province, in return for which the French demand a formal recognition of French control over the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, where a Belgian ‘government in exile’ is subsequently installed. The disputed area is proclaimed a neutral zone until further negotiations due in 1858.

With the aid of British arbitration, a treaty to conclude the Belgian conflict is signed in 1860, outlining the partition of Belgian territory into two separate states; the Grand Duchy of Flanders (under William III of the Netherlands) and the Principality of Wallonia (under Louis d’Orleans). The French agree to British proposals for a plebiscite for the Luxembourg people after five years of French rule. The inhabitantly of Luxembourg, presumably fed up with being messed around by the French, vote for union with Westphalia.

Poland is victorious, at this point, and free after almost 100 years. OTOH, the Russian bear is still watching from the border. The natural allies should be Hungary and Kracow;

Yup. Possibly a formal alliance in the works there.

France-Bavaria-Prussia vs. UK-Holland-Denmark-Westphalia? Should be a no-contest, in particular if Italy is willing to open a southern front.

This is tricky, because France and the UK are technically enjoying a stronger relationship than in OTL. Hmm...perhaps if the UK and France stay out of each other's way?

Just a last footnote: it is a bit early to expand the Zollverein. I would wait for a stabilization of Europe, say another 10-15 years.

No argument there - but do you think such an expansion would be feasible in the longer term?
 
Bill Cameron said:
I'm sorry. Is there a 'prequel' timeline with the N-III/Hungary bits I missed somewhere?

There's fragments at

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=14752

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=15550

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=15811

But it all seems fairly fluid, and highly liable to change and revisions...

Ultimately I'm interested in developing a pesudo-steampunk (although fairly realistic) setting for some fiction. I eventually want to continue this timeline to either 1900 or 1920...although quite how far it'll get is another matter altogether.

Basic POD:

Byron survives brush with malaria in Greece in 1824.

Supplementary PODs:

Byron returns to the UK in 1828 to gain support for the Greek campaign - cue cultural and social butterflies a-plenty.
Greece gets a pro-British monarch in the form of Leopold Saxe-Coburg
Belgium gets a French Orleanist monarch in 1830
The French monarchy survives 1848 intact under Ferdinand d'Orleans

All this leads to...

German and Italian unification going...differently.
 
Justin Pickard said:
With an absolutist Prussia and no 'Landtag', Bismark does not find his way into Politics. By the 1860s I see him as a lawyer or publisher of some description.
there must have been a misunderstanding: I wa stalking about a grassroot german nationalism. I know that in TTL Bismarck is just a junker enjoying his leisure (I cannot see him as a lawyer, for God's sake! :eek: )



Justin Pickard said:
Agreed. They were the only part of the Habsburg Empire which was part of the Zollverein. Even today, Austria has more culturally in common with Germany (especially parts of Bavaria) than seperate nationhood would warrant..
There might be something here. Bavaria looks a tough nut, though. They might try to bring Saxony in their orbit. And a German Empire can come only on a victory field.


Justin Pickard said:
Agreed. Possibly an Austro-French War in the future? Or is Austria simply too weak for the time being?.
Unlikely. Austria has closer enemies, and is substantially weaker than OTL. Their problem should be the traditional Slav one: Bohemia on one side (they might feel the attraction of Hungary/Poland) and the South Slav on the other.
Maybe a nice, short victorious (?) war against the Turks in the Balkans?


Justin Pickard said:
Okay, rump Prussia would have to deal with Polish sentiments. I can see a longer civil war of attrition working out here.
I see a rural Prussia, more and more a kind of garrison state.

Justin Pickard said:
The British would still have strong links to Hanover, with Ernest Augustus (1771-1851) being Victoria's uncle, and George V (1819-1878) - her cousin..
No doubt


Justin Pickard said:
Esentially, the existence of Wallonia is a result of the fact that the newly independent Belgium in 1830 ends up with an Orleanist monarch - Louis, Duc d’Nemours (1814-96) - and, rather than being recognised by the Netherlands, ends up as a perpetual battlefield between Dutch and French forces.

A cease fire of sorts is reached in 1852, dependent on the Dutch occupation of a small area of the North East province, in return for which the French demand a formal recognition of French control over the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, where a Belgian ‘government in exile’ is subsequently installed. The disputed area is proclaimed a neutral zone until further negotiations due in 1858.

With the aid of British arbitration, a treaty to conclude the Belgian conflict is signed in 1860, outlining the partition of Belgian territory into two separate states; the Grand Duchy of Flanders (under William III of the Netherlands) and the Principality of Wallonia (under Louis d’Orleans). The French agree to British proposals for a plebiscite for the Luxembourg people after five years of French rule. The inhabitantly of Luxembourg, presumably fed up with being messed around by the French, vote for union with Westphalia..
I should have got it from the map :(
In a way, it is a perfect ethnic solution, which should avoid contentious points


Justin Pickard said:
Yup. Possibly a formal alliance in the works there..
The traditional Jagellonian Empire ;)


Justin Pickard said:
This is tricky, because France and the UK are technically enjoying a stronger relationship than in OTL. Hmm...perhaps if the UK and France stay out of each other's way?.
I will believe that france and UK are friends only when pigs will be flying. Pigs, or maybe Germans :D
France and UK are certainly the strongest industrial economies in Europe (ok, Westphalia and Holland are a good third, but still far away). In the 19th century this means fighting for markets. Either in Europe or overseas (like they have been doing for the last few centuries, btw). Shall we have an early naval race? and trouble in the Far East? I wonder what might happen out of the French getting into China (Formosa?)


Justin Pickard said:
No argument there - but do you think such an expansion would be feasible in the longer term?
It is certainly feasible, in particular since TTL looks a bit more rational than OTL. But I would expect a Zollverein excluding Prussia, and including Holland and Northern Italy (maybe France too, but usually they don't play a game started by another one :D )
 
Well, I've whipped up this map for the expanded Zollverein which we envisaged appearing in the late 1870s.

Any ideas for the structure of this 'union'? Official languages, name, headquarters, role etc.

Greater_Zollverein.gif
 
Even if Wilhelm I is killed, I doubt that a large scale revolution in Prussia's mainland could succeed in the 1860s, and that Westphalia would be the new home of the monarchy. East and West Prussia and Brandenburg are far more likely because of their rural structure and the dominance of the "junkers".

Concerning the other Northern German states, I am surprised that Schaumburg-Lippe stays independent, while Brunswick enters a union with Hanover and Oldenburg. The only reason why in OTL, Brunswick is not a separate German state is that after WW2, Lower Saxony was created by the occupation authorities. The only way (except conquest) that I consider possible would be a marriage of the ruling houses, followed by the Brunswick line dying out earlier than OTL. Some further research would be required to flesh this out, however.
Ah, btw, did you say anything about Schleswig-Holstein?
 
Imajin said:
Also, you never anwsered my question why the smaller rulers are willing to vacate their thrones.

Okay, calm down. Some of the smaller scale stuff still needs sorting out. I saw it not so much as being willing to vacate their thrones, as being politely forced to in a number of small-scale conflicts.
 
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