Butterfly away the Song Dynasty

@darthfanta, why was Later Liang so weak? What happened with Zhu Wen's death that affected them so deeply? I suppose in 923 Zhu Youqian would be in charge of Later Liang. Could they perhaps be a dead weight to prevent the Turkic ruled nations from invading the South? Later Liang was in a stalemate with Jin prior to that betrayal. Perhaps the weakened dynasty could simply sit there and keep absorbing attacks until one of three things happens.
Zhu Youzhen the one in charge of Later Liang.He was hardworking,yes,but not that particularly talented.He neglected his fathers' advisors in favor listening to members of his inner circle--who focused more on monopolizing power and putting their own supporters into the government as opposed to serving their master well. Later Liang was weak both as a matter of geographical problems as well as in leadership. Zhu Wen was a tyrant who was competent but inspired no loyalty from his men. He had no problems with abusing the subjects under his rule and went as far as to rape the wives of his key generals. In the later parts of his life,he even forced his daughter in laws to serve as his mistresses.It became no surprise that his sons and generals had him murdered in a coup. In terms of geography,Later Liang was mostly limited to the center of China,therefore his state was subject to attack from all sides.It wasn't exactly a good site to unify China from. And unlike Jin/later Tang,Later Liang lacked access to warhorses.
1. A Han Chinese seizes control of the Jin (like happened OTL after its name change to Later Tang).
2. One of the Southern Dynasties such as Southern Tang reunifies Southern China and then after a period of consolidation pushes northward into Later Liang then Jin. Southern Tang had a pretty good performance initially but failed because their conquests exhausted their resources to the extent they could not fend off the gigantic faction that was the Song Dynasty. Perhaps if the Song were replaced by the weaker Later Liang then they'd have breathing room after reaching that period of exhaustion. They could recover, then continue a second period of expansion into Southern Han, then Later Liang.
3. A combination of 1 and 2. The Han Chinese seize back control of the north. The South reunifies, then a unified Han Chinese North and South face off against each other until only one nation remains.
A more powerful Southern Tang can do,but the problem was that they consistently failed to conquer Wuyue. Wuyue was able to consistently defeat Later Tang attempts to conquer it.In conjunction with the dynasties that controlled the north,it was a thorn to Southern Tang attempts to unify the north.The problem though was that just like the Song Dynasty,the Southern Tang was the result of usurpation as well.The first Southern Tang ruler was the adopted son of the de facto ruler of the state of Wu.Upon his adopted father's death,not only did he murder the biological children of his adopted father,but usurped the throne from the legitimate monarchs of Wu.

I personally think that a far more interesting possibility would be Wuyue successfully conquering Southern Tang and thus gradually unify the south under it's command.It's also quite mercantile,having based itself in Hangzhou.

As for your point that a Han Chinese seized control of Later Tang,I'm not sure it's accurate--considering that Li Siyuan(the emperor who usurped the throne from Li Cunxu) was an ethnic Shatao Turk as well.
 
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@darthfanta, typo there. I meant Later Zhou, referring to when it turned into Song.

Did Wuyue have the numbers though? Seems like a very small community. Would Southern Tang be likely to just stop attacking Wuyue and just start going after other nations elsewhere? Might leave them for last and go after Southern Han, Shu then Later Liang. Just like Song you can crush them once you're finished conquering elsewhere.

Good point about Later Liang's position. Do you think Later Liang likely has it in them to simply stall Jin until Southern Tang has built up enough power to come for them or have they likely been obliterated by this point? How early can they go after Later Liang?

This and others like it seem to suggest that the disintegration of Later Liang happens almost immediately after the betrayal of Lu Shunmi and Kang Yanxiao instead of a more gradual shrinkage you might typically expect of a state that is beset on all sides. Lu Shunmi's betrayal set up the situation for Kang's so preventing one could stop the other. A sudden swallowing of Later Liang under Turkic control swings the balance of power wildly towards the Turks. A gradual shrinkage is exploitable by all neighbors.

In particular could we see Southern Tang gnawing away at Later Liang's southern border until it reaches that critical mass that allows it to swallow the rest of South China? Just like Song, once you've got the numbers you can sweep Wuyue away, perhaps they just need to be saved for later. Once you've got that, especially if you can get Shu as well you can take the fight to the Jin. Horses? Yep, you can get them from Shu (as an ally or after conquest). Population? Yes, you've got South China. Wealth? Check due to coastal trading.
 
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@darthfanta, typo there. I meant Later Zhou, referring to when it turned into Song.

Did Wuyue have the numbers though? Seems like a very small community. Would Southern Tang be likely to just stop attacking Wuyue and just start going after other nations elsewhere? Might leave them for last and go after Southern Han, Shu then Later Liang. Just like Song you can crush them once you're finished conquering elsewhere.

Good point about Later Liang's position. Do you think Later Liang likely has it in them to simply stall Jin until Southern Tang has built up enough power to come for them or have they likely been obliterated by this point? How early can they go after Later Liang?

This and others like it seem to suggest that the disintegration of Later Liang happens almost immediately after the betrayal of Lu Shunmi and Kang Yanxiao instead of a more gradual shrinkage you might typically expect of a state that is beset on all sides. Lu Shunmi's betrayal set up the situation for Kang's so preventing one could stop the other. A sudden swallowing of Later Liang under Turkic control swings the balance of power wildly towards the Turks. A gradual shrinkage is exploitable by all neighbors.

In particular could we see Southern Tang gnawing away at Later Liang's southern border until it reaches that critical mass that allows it to swallow the rest of South China? Just like Song, once you've got the numbers you can sweep Wuyue away, perhaps they just need to be saved for later. Once you've got that, especially if you can get Shu as well you can take the fight to the Jin. Horses? Yep, you can get them from Shu (as an ally or after conquest). Population? Yes, you've got South China. Wealth? Check due to coastal trading.
Chinese states like these always disintegrate rapidly.The truth is that states that are not unified dynasties generally have fragile legitimacy and are easily destroyed whenever there’s some form of military disaster. The armies just defect to whoever seems to be winning at the time. Apart from that,what was really fatal about the Later Liang was that Zhu Youzhen moved the capital from Luoyang to Kaifeng. Kaifeng,being a city that situated on the North Chinese plain,was indefensible without deploying large armies.Therefore,in the absence of strong field armies,it can be easily attacked—which is exactly what happened.
 
Even the more militarized successors to the Tang had problems with the Northern Turks. China was likely doomed the moment the Jiedushi were introduced.
 
Even the more militarized successors to the Tang had problems with the Northern Turks. China was likely doomed the moment the Jiedushi were introduced.
Read my point about the Jiedushi.The jiedushis themselves were not the problem.Military governors long existed before the Jiedushi.The problem was the fact that militiamen have been replaced by a standing army.These soldiers were overindulged and lacked discipline.
 
@darthfanta, up to that point Later Liang did have the soldiers to defend Kaifeng. The reason Kaifeng was undefended at the end was because of Zhu Youqian's ambitious all in counterattack. Later Liang did have the troops, but they were trapped North of the yellow river fighting Jin as part of the plan. When that force was back at their posts in Later Liang they managed to hold the line against Jin (battle of Huliu slope), even after Lu Shunmi's betrayal (retaking Desheng fortress). The first betrayal did move Kang Yanxiao into position for a second catastrophic betrayal though.

If they hadn't sent almost everybody out on attack would Jin just grind them down anyway? It seemed the crazy plan was general Duan's idea, who seemed to get into power because of shenanigans leading from Lu Shunmi's betrayal and the loss of Tianping circuit. The Later Tang were actually getting quite distressed about the Liao Empire attacking from the North. The 16 Prefectures were actually ceded to the Liao a decade after this event as part of an uprising against Later Tang by Shi Jingtang. The uprising was initially led by a Shatuo Turk Later Tang general called Li Siyuan who had his base of power in Tianping circuit, which Later Tang got because of Lu Shunmi's betrayal. This uprising occurred just 3 years after Later Liang fell and badly weakened Later Tang.

At the very least the Shatuo Turks still take over a large amount of China but a different Song spawns in later which controls the 16 Prefectures. Were the Liao always likely to take the 16 Prefectures from the Shatuo Turks or was that a weird quirk of fate? Would a Turkic traitor likely be silly enough to cede that territory to the Liao, a hated enemy that was mainly held back by the defenses there? Even if on the verge of defeat?

It is telling that after the man who gave this location to Liao in exchange for their support taking the throne was absolutely helpless when crushed by the Liao about a decade later. This despite the previous nation holding them at bay for decades prior.
 
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Three or even 6 years doesn't seem like a long time considering how long it took to push Later Liang back to the river. Considering that Shi almost was destroyed before the Liao arrived, I could see Later Liang taking advantage of the situation to destroy Shi so they could grab more Jin land. Even if they get pushed back Shi will be dead. Shatuo generals have been in difficult situations before and not called on the Liao. Zhu Shouyin killed himself for instance when his rebellion failed.

The rebellion might significantly weaken Jin though. They initially sent General Shi against them and even he, as one of their best generals had misgivings about the campaign. Imagine if Later Liang was pushing into Jin as well.

Back to Song though it seems that the Song got all of the 16 prefectures except Yunzhou. I can't seem to find a map of the 16 prefectures which details which prefecture goes where. Would really appreciate that if anyone knows where to find it.

As for the Liao attacking, the treaty was mainly the work of Liao Dowager Empress Ch'eng-t'ien who was tired of war. She had support from some of the Liao people. She dies in 1009 giving the Song at least 4 years to build up a decent cavalry force and build up defenses in the region. The Liao attacked the Song frequently but didn't take much further territory from the Song once it got well established. This means that they'll at least have access to the wild horses there at the cost of being raided which might make them significantly stronger. When the next raid voids the treaty they could start building a great ditch, just like they did before to block off attacks out of Yunzhou.

The two seemed to be stuck at their borders, despite Song's incompetence. Liao raids into Song, doesn't take much territory then retreats. This when Song lacks a decent cavalry force. If Song just takes those raids and spends their time building up a good cavalry force in the north then it might tip the balance in Song's favor. Not enough to completely destroy Liao, but perhaps enough to take Yunzhou and get a complete northern defensive line. After that Song probably wouldn't care about helping the Jin.
 
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@darthfanta, up to that point Later Liang did have the soldiers to defend Kaifeng. The reason Kaifeng was undefended at the end was because of Zhu Youqian's ambitious all in counterattack. Later Liang did have the troops, but they were trapped North of the yellow river fighting Jin as part of the plan. When that force was back at their posts in Later Liang they managed to hold the line against Jin (battle of Huliu slope), even after Lu Shunmi's betrayal (retaking Desheng fortress). The first betrayal did move Kang Yanxiao into position for a second catastrophic betrayal though.

If they hadn't sent almost everybody out on attack would Jin just grind them down anyway? It seemed the crazy plan was general Duan's idea, who seemed to get into power because of shenanigans leading from Lu Shunmi's betrayal and the loss of Tianping circuit. The Later Tang were actually getting quite distressed about the Liao Empire attacking from the North. The 16 Prefectures were actually ceded to the Liao a decade after this event as part of an uprising against Later Tang by Shi Jingtang. The uprising was initially led by a Shatuo Turk Later Tang general called Li Siyuan who had his base of power in Tianping circuit, which Later Tang got because of Lu Shunmi's betrayal. This uprising occurred just 3 years after Later Liang fell and badly weakened Later Tang.

At the very least the Shatuo Turks still take over a large amount of China but a different Song spawns in later which controls the 16 Prefectures. Were the Liao always likely to take the 16 Prefectures from the Shatuo Turks or was that a weird quirk of fate? Would a Turkic traitor likely be silly enough to cede that territory to the Liao, a hated enemy that was mainly held back by the defenses there? Even if on the verge of defeat?

It is telling that after the man who gave this location to Liao in exchange for their support taking the throne was absolutely helpless when crushed by the Liao about a decade later. This despite the previous nation holding them at bay for decades prior.
Admittedly,Jin/Later Tang victory had a lot of luck involved and was by no means predetermined.Nonetheless,Li Cunxu screwing up prematurely and cause a mutiny a few years early can probably save Later Liang.

As for your question about the taking of the Sixteen Prefectures by the Khitans,there was definitely a great deal of luck involved.Although in such a chaotic situation like this,there is definitely a chance of the Khitans taking over it.
 
Thanks for the help :) You guys have been a boon to constructing this Alternate Timeline.

@darthfanta I agree, definitely a chance of it going either way. The Great Wall is a tough fortification and Yan itself held out for 2 years against Jin after rebelling during which Liao didn't invade. When the Liao came into the 16 prefectures they had to send Shi into the cities rather than their own people because the Han were afraid of the Liao. Wondering how the probability would tilt though. Would the 16 prefectures be vastly more likely to join whichever Han Chinese state takes out Jin/Later Tang than the Liao? is it even or is the Liao likely to take it in the chaos? Does the dislike of the Liao extend to the Shatuo generals defending the region or might the attitudes of the Han people under their charge influence their decision?

It seemed that the Han Chinese near the yellow river revolted during the short era of "Greater Liao" and drove them off. Let's say we have a situation where a Han Chinese Dynasty is conquering Jin/Later Tang. If a situation where the general of the 16 prefectures defects/falls to Liao comes to pass, would we see mass defections to that Han Dynasty allowing it to push the Liao back or might they retain control?
 
Thanks for the help :) You guys have been a boon to constructing this Alternate Timeline.

@darthfanta I agree, definitely a chance of it going either way. The Great Wall is a tough fortification and Yan itself held out for 2 years against Jin after rebelling during which Liao didn't invade. When the Liao came into the 16 prefectures they had to send Shi into the cities rather than their own people because the Han were afraid of the Liao. Wondering how the probability would tilt though. Would the 16 prefectures be vastly more likely to join whichever Han Chinese state takes out Jin/Later Tang than the Liao? is it even or is the Liao likely to take it in the chaos? Does the dislike of the Liao extend to the Shatuo generals defending the region or might the attitudes of the Han people under their charge influence their decision?

It seemed that the Han Chinese near the yellow river revolted during the short era of "Greater Liao" and drove them off. Let's say we have a situation where a Han Chinese Dynasty is conquering Jin/Later Tang. If a situation where the general of the 16 prefectures defects/falls to Liao comes to pass, would we see mass defections to that Han Dynasty allowing it to push the Liao back or might they retain control?
I frankly don’t see the Khitan taking things in one swoop,but it will probably retain control control of the Sixteen Prefectures.

Even if the Later Liang won the war against Jin/Later Tang,I think Later Liang will probably be replaced by a new dynasty sometime later,given it’s rulers were’t particularly talented.Just like the Tang Dynasty,Later Liang was full of warlords their alloted territory as de facto fiefs.
 
@darthfanta Does the probability of the situation lean further towards defection to a Han nation or the Liao? Which Dynasty would be best to replace the Later Liang? Another dynasty succeeding Later Liang caused by an internal revolt or an existing one taking over?

Would we be likely to see a Dynasty appearing that would resemble the Song in economic development or widespread use of the Imperial Examinations? I was asking because I'm curious how much of the Song's success was simply Chinese civilization progressing regardless of the dynasty due to building on past tech and population related societal change (Tang already had extremely high levels of steel output and used Imperial Examinations prior to Song). Perhaps Song's main unique contribution may be crippling the army with the rest being a continuation of preexisting trends or things that are likely to happen when tech improves and the individual wealth increases.
 
@darthfanta Does the probability of the situation lean further towards defection to a Han nation or the Liao? Which Dynasty would be best to replace the Later Liang? Another dynasty succeeding Later Liang caused by an internal revolt or an existing one taking over?

Would we be likely to see a Dynasty appearing that would resemble the Song in economic development or widespread use of the Imperial Examinations? I was asking because I'm curious how much of the Song's success was simply Chinese civilization progressing regardless of the dynasty due to building on past tech and population related societal change (Tang already had extremely high levels of steel output and used Imperial Examinations prior to Song). Perhaps Song's main unique contribution may be crippling the army with the rest being a continuation of preexisting trends or things that are likely to happen when tech improves and the individual wealth increases.
Depends on who’s winning.In the case where the Jin/Later Tang has collapsed,it really depends on how is winning(between the Khitans and the Later Liang),and what they promised to various warlords.

As for the second point,I’m not too sure.It really depends on a lot.

In regards to the Imperial Examinations, further development of this system under the Song Dynasty has a lot to do with the eradication of the traditional Chinese aristocracy by Huang Chao and Zhu Wen.In other words,it was a natural progression of the Chinese society.Due to Huang Chao and Zhu Wen,the traditional Chinese aristocracy were either killed or lost their land from which they could have supported their political networks. Governments that replaced the Tang also no longer recognised what remained of these aristocratic clans as being nominally superior to common scholars,and thus used the Imperial Examination en masse to recruit officials from undistinguished families. Prior to the Song Dynasty,only a minority of officials were recruited through the Imperial Examination,and much of these posts were also monopolized by scions of big aristocratic clans due to the aristocrats being able to afford better education and that they have better rapport with examiners.
 
Going to have to ask the community but the 16 prefectures might lean very heavily towards rejoining a Han nation. The Shatuo Turks there were sinicized so they hated the Liao too. The 16 prefectures prior to the Liao have already got a precedent for defecting to a Han nation. They did defect to Later Liang for a while as the state of Yan when they rebelled against Jin.

Any nation which was reached the stage where it can overtake Jin is already in a strong position to push Liao out. Without Song's military incompetence and the population not yet used to the Liao you should be able to drive them out. Like you said a Han revolt drove the Great Liao from the yellow river region. If there's a Han general invading and offering liberation I think you might see the 16 prefectures Han driving the Liao out too. They'll raid alright but just like OTL Liao later on they'll then pull back due to Han resistance.

Curious what you think of this interpretation? Likely? What made the 16 prefectures Han so different from the other Han? If the Liao have just arrived perhaps they'd be overwhelmingly likely to react in the same way?
 
Going to have to ask the community but the 16 prefectures might lean very heavily towards rejoining a Han nation. The Shatuo Turks there were sinicized so they hated the Liao too. The 16 prefectures prior to the Liao have already got a precedent for defecting to a Han nation. They did defect to Later Liang for a while as the state of Yan when they rebelled against Jin.

Any nation which was reached the stage where it can overtake Jin is already in a strong position to push Liao out. Without Song's military incompetence and the population not yet used to the Liao you should be able to drive them out. Like you said a Han revolt drove the Great Liao from the yellow river region. If there's a Han general invading and offering liberation I think you might see the 16 prefectures Han driving the Liao out too. They'll raid alright but just like OTL Liao later on they'll then pull back due to Han resistance.

Curious what you think of this interpretation? Likely? What made the 16 prefectures Han so different from the other Han? If the Liao have just arrived perhaps they'd be overwhelmingly likely to react in the same way?
You have to know that the people in charge of Later Liang weren’t that competent. The Later Liang government managed to drive the army in the Hebei region into defecting to Jin/Later Tang a several years before Later Liang was destroyed.So those people probably wouldn’t want to rejoin Later Liang.
 
@darthfanta, firstly which Han nation would most likely come out on top and be in the position for facing off against the Khitians? A new state caused by an internal rebellion of Later Liang? One of the others such as Southern Tang? How would the campaign work out? If they're losing to that Han state would the emperor likely surrender to the Han before his nation completely disappears or would he fight to the end?

As for the Khitian/Later Liang balance, consider that the war against Han is still in progress (Jin destroyed in one continuous war). The Khitians are still outside the Great Wall. How likely in this situation is nobody defecting to the Khitians and them staying outside the wall?
 
I think the Hebei example actually sums it up pretty well. The people of the 16 Prefectures were brutalized under the state of Yan (Liu Shouguang). The state was going to be obliterated by Jin and yet nobody let the Khitians in. It looks like the folks there have a strong bias against the Liao. Shi just so happens to either have made an extremely rare and unlikely decision.

What I'm really wondering is whether a Han takeover over of the Shatuo Turk state such as in Later Han was highly likely, especially in that short time frame (about 30 years). That opens up the possibility of Jin eventually being overthrown and becoming a Han state, then reunifying China. The difference in this case being that the 16 prefectures are never lost because Later Liang and its successor state applying pressure changes the balance of power. During Later Liang's time disgruntled soldiers from Jin joined their ranks.

Thoughts?
 
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I think the Hebei example actually sums it up pretty well. The people of the 16 Prefectures were brutalized under the state of Yan (Liu Shouguang). The state was going to be obliterated by Jin and yet nobody let the Khitians in. It looks like the folks there have a strong bias against the Liao.

Thoughts?
Possible,that is assuming that the people in Later Liang doesn't fuck things up.
@darthfanta, firstly which Han nation would most likely come out on top and be in the position for facing off against the Khitians? A new state caused by an internal rebellion of Later Liang? One of the others such as Southern Tang? How would the campaign work out? If they're losing to that Han state would the emperor likely surrender to the Han before his nation completely disappears or would he fight to the end?

As for the Khitian/Later Liang balance, consider that the war against Han is still in progress (Jin destroyed in one continuous war). The Khitians are still outside the Great Wall. How likely in this situation is nobody defecting to the Khitians and them staying outside the wall?
Basically none--if the Khitans are able to take over Hebei.

In the entirety of Chinese history,only the Ming Dynasty and the KMT has succeeded in reunified China from the South. If the Khitans managed to take over the north and entrench there,it is unlikely that the southern states could have taken the Khitan outs unless the Khitan empire fragments due to some reason.
 
@darthfanta How about if the Khitians never get a foothold in Northern China as per the above posts? The only non-han nation to be dealt with is the Shatuo Turks in Jin.

As in the above Denv post I'm quite curious about whether it was very likely for a Shatuo Turk state to be overthrown as fast as it did by Han Chinese?
 
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@darthfanta How about if the Khitians never get a foothold in Northern China as per the above posts? The only non-han nation to be dealt with is the Shatuo Turks in Jin.

As in the above Denv post I'm quite curious about whether it was very likely for a Shatuo Turk state to be overthrown as fast as it did by Han Chinese?
They weren't overthrown fast.The next two dynasties after the Later Tang were all controlled by Shatuo Turks. The reason why they were overthrown 'fast' has less to do with them not being Chinese and more to do with the fact that: A)the founders of such Dynasties were generally pretty old when they came to power and their own sons were generally incompetent; B) they never resolved the problem in regards to soldiers being unruly and ill disciplined,meaning that an emperor without much experience will generally be unable to rein in the army.
 
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@darthfanta alright. That does explain the fast turnover but was an eventual takeover by Han Chinese of the Shatuo State in that time frame (30 years) very likely?
 
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