Butterflies of a successful Vinland in Europe?

A subsistence farmer with his family, animals and seed supply is high-volume, low-value goods compared to some other trade goods. With expensive small knarrs, emigrants may take the trips like Norway-Iceland, or Iceland-Greenland, or Iceland-Vinland - but from Europe direct to Vinland, whether islandhopping or straight over empty ocean, gets too expensive even with 13th century population pressures. And that would hold until better and cheaper ships come along in 17th century.

Precisely why better and bigger ships would be developed earlier than OTL. As you mentioned in the other Vinland colony thread, "In OTL, Germans developed bigger, more efficient cogs in 12th, 13th century. If Vinland trade increases, they could not just take over the cog - it is a solution for a different task - but developing a bigger ship adapted to crossing empty North Atlantic may make sense."

Pre-Black Death Europe not only had population pressures, it had a plethora of younger sons of nobility who lacked the Crusades to draw them away and kill them off. Once news of this new land across the Atlantic spreads -- and it certainly will -- second sons will be lining up for ships that will take them to a land where they can create a new class of landed gentry. They will need larger ships to carry supplies and the settlers to create their new estates. (Happened in Colonial America, too, but could be more likely to succeed in an earlier time.)

There was a reason why 16th century Spaniards picked the populous Central and Southern America where they could conquer and exploit Indians, and ignored the less densely settled areas like North America. Only in 17th century did English start farming settlement.

Yup. Gold AND slaves.

A settlement of a few hundred Norse on a small patch of Newfoundland might be sustainable - yet keep growing over centuries because of natural increase, continuous trickle of immigrants from Greenland and Iceland, and interbreeding with Skraelings.

And the trade all the way to Europe would be limited to high value, low volume goods - including a few passengers.

As the settlement expands further south to warmer climates, the few immigrants who come from, say, Ireland or England or Germany may introduce warmer climate crops like wheat or vines (Leif had a German in his crew who knew vines). But they would still be few, and they would soon teach the use of wheat to their neighbouring Norse, and also Skraelings.


When the population of Vinland grows and the demand for low volume, high value trade to Europe increases, yes, it creates incentive for better ships.
 
Precisely why better and bigger ships would be developed earlier than OTL. As you mentioned in the other Vinland colony thread, "In OTL, Germans developed bigger, more efficient cogs in 12th, 13th century. If Vinland trade increases, they could not just take over the cog - it is a solution for a different task - but developing a bigger ship adapted to crossing empty North Atlantic may make sense."

Pre-Black Death Europe not only had population pressures, it had a plethora of younger sons of nobility who lacked the Crusades to draw them away and kill them off. Once news of this new land across the Atlantic spreads -- and it certainly will -- second sons will be lining up for ships that will take them to a land where they can create a new class of landed gentry. They will need larger ships to carry supplies and the settlers to create their new estates. (Happened in Colonial America, too, but could be more likely to succeed in an earlier time.)
How easy will it be for West European noble immigrants to get accepted and succeed in Vinland?

There were not many who succeeded in OTL Iceland, or Finland, or Novgorod.

Merchants and artisans are another matter.
 
What about Tobacco? I can't find when it made its way as far north as the Great lakes or even Virginia, but highly addictive recreational chemicals have a way of making money. Theoretically once the Norse eventually find the stuff (whenever the hell that might be) they could be convinced to try it and get hooked, trading iron for tobacco. Thoughts?
 
Tobacco even today is basically limited in production to southern ontario.

One trade item that has not been talked about alot and was a major item as I understand was ivory.

Ivory from walrus and narwhal tusks were a major trade commodity until the Portugese started exploring Africa and importing elephant tusks in a big way. This was one of the major sources of collapse of their economy.

Other factors are the lack of re-vitaling locations. Greenlands was used until the iceage started to make crops there impractical....now your major waypoint before Iceland has to have all it's supplies imported which is a major logistical challange.

Lastly the fur trade was profitable but the success rates were extremely low. Despite what people think trying to trap furs prior the invention and spread of the steel trap was a very low success effort and most furs traded in the early years of Canada were byproducts of hunting rather than the organised fur brigades of the 1700's.

A successful Vineland colony...no matter how hazardous to reach however does provide a relief valve for the noble sons to go claim new lands just like the Crusades did. Unfortunately this would mean a trickle of people instead of the flood overtaking the middle east and may not be enough to prevent the crusades from happening.
 
I did not read up to this point, so forgive me if I'm restating what has already been said.

1) Does the successful Vinland have constant or even halfway regular contact with the Old World?
2) How large is Vinland, in terms of size and population?
3) Are there any nations in Europe with the wealth, power, and stability to exploit the news of the New World?

If these answers are negative in any way, then there will be fewer butterflies. Indeed, it may well still be abandoned by any state, especially when considering that the bloodthirsty vikings have had such a bad time of it with the Skraelings. If the vikings can't cut it, who can? There's simply the question of whether any one monarch has the resources or opportunity to go further with it.

Of course, that doesn't mean that in time someone won't join in the fun.
 
1) Does the successful Vinland have constant or even halfway regular contact with the Old World?
I expect it would. Greenland and Iceland did.
2) How large is Vinland, in terms of size and population?
My order of magnitude idea for population:
Iceland had about 30 000 people by 1100, and I expect by 930 it was over 10 000.
Iceland of 986 could send out a fleet of 1000 emigrants simultaneously. 560 arrived in Greenland. The sustainable population was 2000...3000

Now, for example Quebec French bred from 60 000 souls in 1759 to over 6 millions in 200 years, with little new immigration.

Vinland will not have as good conditions as 19th century Quebec (population growing 10 times per century) - let´s say population growing 4 times in century, 2 times in each 50 years, plus a steady trickle of immigrants from Iceland and Greenland adding 5000 more each 50 years. Starting, say, 2500 in 1050, then 10 000 in 1100, 25 000 in 1150, 55 000 in 1200 and 115 000 by 1250. However, guestimate a sustainable High Medieval population of Newfoundland at 100 000 - so about 13th century Newfoundland gets fully settled which slows down further immigration and population breeding - as well as speeds up settlement of Quebec and Maritimes, previously slow and scattered.
That is white, Norse population around Newfoundland, with only small admixture of Beothuk Metis.

In the meantime, mostly Metis (but Christian and partly Norse speaking) populations have grown up around Hochelaga and Aquidneck.
3) Are there any nations in Europe with the wealth, power, and stability to exploit the news of the New World?
No. Logistically, no one is in position to interfere.
If these answers are negative in any way, then there will be fewer butterflies. Indeed, it may well still be abandoned by any state, especially when considering that the bloodthirsty vikings have had such a bad time of it with the Skraelings. If the vikings can't cut it, who can? There's simply the question of whether any one monarch has the resources or opportunity to go further with it.
The first monarch to interfere would be that of Norway. But even OTL Iceland was too tough nut to crack before 13th century.

In the meantime, the chieftains of Iceland were slowly building up strength to make Iceland a state. No one quite succeeded before they were taken over by Norway in 13th century.

I expect making Vinland a state would go faster. Although possibly several states might be formed. And a King of Vinland might have interests in Europe.
 
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How easy will it be for West European noble immigrants to get accepted and succeed in Vinland?

There were not many who succeeded in OTL Iceland, or Finland, or Novgorod.

But they don't have to settle in Vinland. One of the butterflies of this discovery of a new land is that there is much more to it than just Vinland. Once Europe realizes that there is a whole other continent -- or even just whopping large island -- across the Atlantic, they can start setting up colonies independent of Vinland. My point is, the Norse monopoly on North American colonization lasts perhaps a century, or two at the outside. Once the necessary improvements in ship technology spread, other countries and groups start showing up in areas with better climates and natural resources outside the Norse sphere of influence.

Merchants and artisans are another matter.

Agreed. If the Norse recruit specialists from elsewhere in Europe or allow outside merchants access to Vinland, then the rest of Europe gets in on the act that much sooner.
 
But they don't have to settle in Vinland. One of the butterflies of this discovery of a new land is that there is much more to it than just Vinland. Once Europe realizes that there is a whole other continent -- or even just whopping large island -- across the Atlantic, they can start setting up colonies independent of Vinland. My point is, the Norse monopoly on North American colonization lasts perhaps a century, or two at the outside. Once the necessary improvements in ship technology spread, other countries and groups start showing up in areas with better climates and natural resources outside the Norse sphere of influence.

The improvements take their sweet time to be developed, and spread. And by the time they are in place, the Norse have a tenuous claim - trade partners and scattering of colonies - in place. Quite sparse Spanish and Portuguese settlement was able to deter all other settlers of Americas throughout 16th century, and much of the mainland later on as well.

Say, the 12th century Vinland Norse build bigger ships, which can sail straight east to Ireland by westerlies, and then return via Iceland and Greenland (taking on water).

Their trade partners in Ireland, and maybe England and Scotland, may learn to copy the ships. But what exactly is a Vinland cog good for? To visit Leifsbudir for trade in low volume, high value goods. At first, still too expensive for settlers.
 
The improvements take their sweet time to be developed, and spread. And by the time they are in place, the Norse have a tenuous claim - trade partners and scattering of colonies - in place. Quite sparse Spanish and Portuguese settlement was able to deter all other settlers of Americas throughout 16th century, and much of the mainland later on as well.

I agree that the improvements take time to spread, but I have to disagree on the "able to deter" point. England, Holland, and France concentrated their colonial development in North America well north of Spanish and Portugese territories. Spain wasn't interested in NA above Florida because it lacked the denser population (slaves) and precious metals of Mexico and SA. Northern European explorers (Britain, France, Dutch etc) were active throughout the 16th C. New entrants into NA in this timeline would logically look farther south beyond the Norse settlements.
Say, the 12th century Vinland Norse build bigger ships, which can sail straight east to Ireland by westerlies, and then return via Iceland and Greenland (taking on water).

Their trade partners in Ireland, and maybe England and Scotland, may learn to copy the ships. But what exactly is a Vinland cog good for? To visit Leifsbudir for trade in low volume, high value goods. At first, still too expensive for settlers.
But far better for settlers than a knarr. A modified cog would serve as an intermediate step in the technological development that would lead to larger multi-masted ships for true Atlantic voyaging. Cogs first appeared in the 10th C. so it had a history of use that allows designers to build on it to meet the new requirements.

I'm not saying your hesitancy to accept non-Norse colonialism is completely wrong. One element that could delay other Europeans from exploiting the new lands is simple political development. Britain, France, Spain in the 12th and 13th C. were not in a position to underwrite trans-Atlantic explorations, if only because those political entities were barely half-formed. That's why I see non-Norse colonization as more an individual effort by second sons and entrepreneurial merchants than nation-state undertakings. But then that's the Norse pattern, too, so it's not completely ASB to see it happening in other cultures as well. I can readily see a claimant to the throne of some nation offering younger siblings/cousins a ship for NA exploration as an alternative to the garrote or civil war.
 
I expect it would. Greenland and Iceland did.

My order of magnitude idea for population:
Iceland had about 30 000 people by 1100, and I expect by 930 it was over 10 000.
Iceland of 986 could send out a fleet of 1000 emigrants simultaneously. 560 arrived in Greenland. The sustainable population was 2000...3000

Now, for example Quebec French bred from 60 000 souls in 1759 to over 6 millions in 200 years, with little new immigration.

Vinland will not have as good conditions as 19th century Quebec (population growing 10 times per century) - let´s say population growing 4 times in century, 2 times in each 50 years, plus a steady trickle of immigrants from Iceland and Greenland adding 5000 more each 50 years. Starting, say, 2500 in 1050, then 10 000 in 1100, 25 000 in 1150, 55 000 in 1200 and 115 000 by 1250. However, guestimate a sustainable High Medieval population of Newfoundland at 100 000 - so about 13th century Newfoundland gets fully settled which slows down further immigration and population breeding - as well as speeds up settlement of Quebec and Maritimes, previously slow and scattered.
That is white, Norse population around Newfoundland, with only small admixture of Beothuk Metis.

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I doubt that immigration and population breeding would be slowed down by the full settlement of Newfoundland . If anything , once Newfoundland is fully settled , we could probably expect to see an explosion of population in new colonies along the Eastern Seaboard and Great Lakes , and I don't think it would end till Nordic settlement reaches the edge of the Great Plains . After all , historically , once the 13 Colonies in America were fully settled , the American population grew still faster , did it not ?

I believe it took only 150 years for British settlement in North America to go from next to nothing , to 2 million by the 7 Years War. If anything , once Nordic Newfoundland is fully settled , I expect Nordic colonist to overwhelm and flood Old World Exchange ravaged Native populations . And if Nordic ships explore all the way up to Mexico by the mid 14th Century , as it is very plausible , I do not thing any European Nation would be in a position to beat the Vinlanders to Mexico , and probably even Peru.

I expect Nordic adventurers to overthrow Meso American states , and if adventurers can get down to the Andes before the rise of Cuzco in the early 15th Century , I expect that the Andes would be filled with an Empire governed by the descendants of Nordic Consquistarods by the 16th Century . I seriously doubt any European state would be in a viable position to encroach on America before 1450 at least , and even then , I suspect their colonies would be at the mercy of Nordic settlements nearby , or Metis allies of the Nordics.

We probably wouldn't see the Great Empire of Vinland , stretching from the Artic to Tierra Del Fuego , but I suspect that a Scandanavian descended language would be the most prominent language in the Americas , at least.
 
I doubt that immigration and population breeding would be slowed down by the full settlement of Newfoundland . If anything , once Newfoundland is fully settled , we could probably expect to see an explosion of population in new colonies along the Eastern Seaboard and Great Lakes , and I don't think it would end till Nordic settlement reaches the edge of the Great Plains . After all , historically , once the 13 Colonies in America were fully settled , the American population grew still faster , did it not ?

In a very different situation.

I believe it took only 150 years for British settlement in North America to go from next to nothing , to 2 million by the 7 Years War. If anything , once Nordic Newfoundland is fully settled , I expect Nordic colonist to overwhelm and flood Old World Exchange ravaged Native populations . And if Nordic ships explore all the way up to Mexico by the mid 14th Century , as it is very plausible , I do not thing any European Nation would be in a position to beat the Vinlanders to Mexico , and probably even Peru.
Where are all those colonists coming from?

I expect Nordic adventurers to overthrow Meso American states , and if adventurers can get down to the Andes before the rise of Cuzco in the early 15th Century , I expect that the Andes would be filled with an Empire governed by the descendants of Nordic Consquistarods by the 16th Century . I seriously doubt any European state would be in a viable position to encroach on America before 1450 at least , and even then , I suspect their colonies would be at the mercy of Nordic settlements nearby , or Metis allies of the Nordics.

We probably wouldn't see the Great Empire of Vinland , stretching from the Artic to Tierra Del Fuego , but I suspect that a Scandanavian descended language would be the most prominent language in the Americas , at least.
Not unless there is massive Norse immigration to the New World, for starters. Not to mention that the Meso-American states vs. the Vinlanders is a much more even fight than vs. Cortez and his ilk.
 
I agree that the improvements take time to spread, but I have to disagree on the "able to deter" point. England, Holland, and France concentrated their colonial development in North America well north of Spanish and Portugese territories.
France attempted 16th century colonies both in Florida and in Brazil. They were wiped out by Spaniards and Portuguese respectively.

Cartier explored St. Lawrence 1534...1542, but French did not settle till 1609 or so.
Spain wasn't interested in NA above Florida because it lacked the denser population (slaves) and precious metals of Mexico and SA. Northern European explorers (Britain, France, Dutch etc) were active throughout the 16th C.
But no settlements before 1607 (plus the failed Roanoke colony of 1585)
But far better for settlers than a knarr. A modified cog would serve as an intermediate step in the technological development that would lead to larger multi-masted ships for true Atlantic voyaging. Cogs first appeared in the 10th C. so it had a history of use that allows designers to build on it to meet the new requirements.
But still not as good as OTL 16th century ships, not in 12th...13th century.

Also no volta do mar yet. Since the known sailing route for Norse goes west at high latitudes (not low latitude trades), knowing the shores of Iceland and Greenland, cold climate sailing and having connections in Iceland favouring use as waystation are at a premium. And the ships sail past Newfoundland before hugging the coast southwards.
I'm not saying your hesitancy to accept non-Norse colonialism is completely wrong. One element that could delay other Europeans from exploiting the new lands is simple political development. Britain, France, Spain in the 12th and 13th C. were not in a position to underwrite trans-Atlantic explorations, if only because those political entities were barely half-formed. That's why I see non-Norse colonization as more an individual effort by second sons and entrepreneurial merchants than nation-state undertakings. But then that's the Norse pattern, too, so it's not completely ASB to see it happening in other cultures as well. I can readily see a claimant to the throne of some nation offering younger siblings/cousins a ship for NA exploration as an alternative to the garrote or civil war.

That would be mostly the claimants to the throne who already have connections to Vinland, and who are not proposing to actually explore.

Entrepreneurial merchants? OTL, the Hanse Germans successfully settled in Bergen, in Stockholm alongside Swedish burghers... not sure what the proportions of German, Swedish and Finnish burghers were in Turku or Viipuri. Hansa ships sailed to Iceland, too, but Iceland had no favourable place for towns.

Iceland was a refugee for outlaws from Norway (up to the time of Erik the Red´s father). Outlaws from Iceland travelled to Norway, and some went as far as Constantinople.

Vinland is going to have a steady trickle of well-connected fugitives from Iceland throughout 11th and 12th century, because of the established connections and availability of land for settlements.

12th century Iceland wasn´t taking many refugees from Norway (not much free land). Assuming that 12th century civil wars in Norway go ahead as scheduled (butterflies would not causally prevent that), Vinland would be taking some (OTL, they went to Sweden, Denmark, Faroes...).

For the point of view of 12th century Vinland sailor wanting to trade anywhere in Europe, Norway is far away and on the wrong side of British Isles. Sailing on west winds straight east of Leifsbudir, the next landfall would be Iceland (nice mountains of Kerry). And they will find Gaelo-Norse in Limerick, Cork, Dublin, perhaps Galway?, and turning north to return via Iceland, they pass the also Gaelo-Norse Hebrides.

If they establish trade relationships, will they be taking merchants as passengers? Farmers (who have the experience with warmer climate crops like wheat)? Nobles?
 
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