What if Timur, sometimes referred to as The Lame, who conquered vast regions of Central Asia and Persia and even laid waste to the ottoman turks, had never been born or was killed in one of his earliest campaigns?
What are the effects on...
Ottoman Turkey, Anatolia, and the Byzantine Empire?
The Ilkhanate and Persia overall?
India?
China?
Tibet?
Central Asia as a whole?
Georgia and Armenia?
Iraq/Mesopotamia?
The Golden Horde and Russia?
Any other country that could have been affected by a lack of Timur?
It may seem strange but the consequences of "no-Chengiz-Khan" are easier to predict as opposed to the consequences of 'no Tamerlane'.
Chengiz-Khan was
much greater but he visited this world at the time, when nearly in all the corners of the Earth, touched (scorched) by him or by his sons/grandsons/successors, there was some semblance of order with visible hegemon with explicit trends and tendencies.
But when Tamerlane appeared as a political/military figure it was the time of turmoil. In the main sphere of his activities - in Persia there was a power vacuum after the fall of the Hulaguid (Il-khan) dynasty; the Jouchy Ulus (the Golden Horde) was going through its 'Time of Troubles'; even the Northern India was not a quiet lake.
Ironically Timur brought some (facade of) order to this mess only for the period when he was alive. Unlike Chengizz Khan he didn't care too much about what would happen after he was dead, here he was more like Alexander the Great, more concerned with his own personal grander, the legend he would leave after he was no more.
And that makes it even more complicated - to say what would happen with lack of Tamerlane.
One thing for certain - (in my opinion) Timur was in the top five of the greatest generals and conquerors in the history of the human kind; so his disappearance would have made
huge difference.
Those leaders he annihilated might have been the founders of the great empires and dynasties for centuries.
It's getting late and I'm sure I won't be able to finish this till morning, but one thing the overwhelming majority of the historians agree on is Tamerlane was the one who finished off the Golden Horde.
The Jouchy Ulus (as opposed to other successor states of the Mongol World Empire) had
good chances to survive it's temporary troubles and live for a century or so longer as a Great Power. That alone would produce a swarm of elephant-sized butterflies.
The prominence of the North-East Rus, Moscow, seems like an inevitability in OTL; but even in our time line Moscow made it by the skin of it's teeth. In ATL (without Tamerlane) 'Russia' might have stayed a footnote in history books.
Well, I am falling asleep, but if I have more time I'll continue with less obvious consequences tomorrow...