Butterflies Needed For ACW TL Project

Working on a timeline for the American Civil War, but need an adequate number of butterflies to accomplish the goal of a third wave of seceding states. I'm thinking that this would require different outcomes in the French and Indian Wars, the American Revolutionary War, and the War of 1812 that would give the Americans/the United States such decisive victories that all of Canada would wind up in the hands of the United States. The result is that there are simply MORE states in the United States, and, consequently, more states secede at the outset of the American Civil War, and possibly for a variety of reasons. There are probably too many butterflies to calculate here. More than anything else, I'm asking for assistance in catching them.
 
First off, give people more than a few hours...

Secondly. You might not even need to go that far back if you want another set of states to secede.

A POD back in the 1850's could have nativist sentiments arise in California/the Pacific Coast. Increasingly dismayed by the ongoing conflict over slavery Californians begin to see themselves as above said disputes and distinct from the people back home. Once states start seceding, California and others declare themselves neutral and begin moving towards independence. Washington then places too much pressure on them to get involved leading to the Western states seceding and forming a Pacific republic that is immediately backed by Britain and France.
 
A POD back in the 1850's could have nativist sentiments arise in California/the Pacific Coast. Increasingly dismayed by the ongoing conflict over slavery Californians begin to see themselves as above said disputes and distinct from the people back home. Once states start seceding, California and others declare themselves neutral and begin moving towards independence. Washington then places too much pressure on them to get involved leading to the Western states seceding and forming a Pacific republic that is immediately backed by Britain and France.

Do you think European recognition of a California Republic would occur immediately? Would this hypothetical republic remain truly neutral in the ACW?
 
A POD back in the 1850's could have nativist sentiments arise in California/the Pacific Coast. Increasingly dismayed by the ongoing conflict over slavery Californians begin to see themselves as above said disputes and distinct from the people back home. Once states start seceding said:
I agree here, but if you do want an earlier POD, during the Second Continental Congress (I believe, it might have been the first) they sent an envoy to Quebec trying to have them join the American Revolution. In real history the envoy acted like jerks and insulted everyone for pretty much not being English, if you change that and have Quebec join the revolution, and bring with it other "Canadian States" when the Civil War roles around neither French Canada States or the South would want to work together, but French Canada States would want to maintain a large amount of States Rights so that they can maintain their unique identity from the English States
 
Do you think European recognition of a California Republic would occur immediately? Would this hypothetical republic remain truly neutral in the ACW?
England and France already wanted to be involved, but with Lincoln painting it as a war against slavery and several smaller factors it wasn't worth the image of being labeled hypocrites on a world scale, as both countries were anti-slavery supporters
 
For getting an ACW with better odds for the Confederacy, I've always thought that an establishment of the "Great Southern Empire" under American support would be a good start (basically, in 1855 a group of Dixie adventurers invaded Nicaragua and set themselves up as a puppet government, then were promptly kicked back to the south). Obviously, such endeavors wouldn't succeed, but if a few more happened, an "War of 1850" that saw British and possibly French troops on American soil in response to American "Imperialism" would be plausible. From there, a European focus on hitting American industrial centers (e.g. the North) would even the odds in a future ACW.

Returning to your ideas, though, I don't think that an independent California would do the trick - simply too little fighting occurred there, and their troops aren't enough to tip the balance. Your idea of Canada joining the union and thus more OTL states seceding is also a bit far-fetched, IMHO, but with butterflies its certainly possible. OTL, no one really wanted to secede from the midwest after Bleeding Kansas drew such a dividing line. Really, your best bet would be to avoid Bleeding Kansas altogether (of course, your initial proposal would do just that). With more holdings in Canada, the US will be far more influenced by the French, probably to the point that, should the French Revolution happen more or less as OTL, you'll see quite a bit of immigration to the US once the reign of terror gets going. What you really need in the Midwest to go with the South if you want to even the odds, which means you'll need a reason for the breadbasket states to join the King Cotton states, with whom they have a loose relationship, instead of the Northern industrial states, upon whom their economy was largely dependent. Having a "French-Yankee" North+Canada look increasingly down upon a German-Irish-Italian Midwest, an independent breadbasket from Canada that can compete with the Midwest, some sort of "Bleeding Ohio" fight over cultural differences, and a bigger slave presence in the Midwest (all of which are possible given your initial POD) should do the trick. I hope this helps!
 
For getting an ACW with better odds for the Confederacy, I've always thought that an establishment of the "Great Southern Empire" under American support would be a good start (basically, in 1855 a group of Dixie adventurers invaded Nicaragua and set themselves up as a puppet government, then were promptly kicked back to the south). Obviously, such endeavors wouldn't succeed, but if a few more happened, an "War of 1850" that saw British and possibly French troops on American soil in response to American "Imperialism" would be plausible. From there, a European focus on hitting American industrial centers (e.g. the North) would even the odds in a future ACW.

Returning to your ideas, though, I don't think that an independent California would do the trick - simply too little fighting occurred there, and their troops aren't enough to tip the balance. Your idea of Canada joining the union and thus more OTL states seceding is also a bit far-fetched, IMHO, but with butterflies its certainly possible. OTL, no one really wanted to secede from the midwest after Bleeding Kansas drew such a dividing line. Really, your best bet would be to avoid Bleeding Kansas altogether (of course, your initial proposal would do just that). With more holdings in Canada, the US will be far more influenced by the French, probably to the point that, should the French Revolution happen more or less as OTL, you'll see quite a bit of immigration to the US once the reign of terror gets going. What you really need in the Midwest to go with the South if you want to even the odds, which means you'll need a reason for the breadbasket states to join the King Cotton states, with whom they have a loose relationship, instead of the Northern industrial states, upon whom their economy was largely dependent. Having a "French-Yankee" North+Canada look increasingly down upon a German-Irish-Italian Midwest, an independent breadbasket from Canada that can compete with the Midwest, some sort of "Bleeding Ohio" fight over cultural differences, and a bigger slave presence in the Midwest (all of which are possible given your initial POD) should do the trick. I hope this helps!

That definitely helps to a great degree. I have to admit I'm kind of working backwards a bit and I'm working on a designing a possible map for this. The map looks crazy ASB at first glance. I would post it here but it would be immediately shredded, mostly because all the states have retained their OTL shapes. Instead of a Kansas-Nebraska Act I was thinking more like a Minnesota-Iowa Act. I suppose I could message you a copy of this poor excuse of a map?
 

katchen

Banned
Instead of more slave states, what about fewer free states?
Go back even further to 1690 and Great Britain's attempt to consolidate the New England Colonies into one Crown Colony of New England. What if that attempt had succeeded?
 
Instead of more slave states, what about fewer free states?
Go back even further to 1690 and Great Britain's attempt to consolidate the New England Colonies into one Crown Colony of New England. What if that attempt had succeeded?

That's definitely something I hadn't considered. I have the same states IOTL.
 
That definitely helps to a great degree. I have to admit I'm kind of working backwards a bit and I'm working on a designing a possible map for this. The map looks crazy ASB at first glance. I would post it here but it would be immediately shredded, mostly because all the states have retained their OTL shapes. Instead of a Kansas-Nebraska Act I was thinking more like a Minnesota-Iowa Act. I suppose I could message you a copy of this poor excuse of a map?

Absolutely! And maps aren't my strong suit, either.
 
Do you think European recognition of a California Republic would occur immediately? Would this hypothetical republic remain truly neutral in the ACW?

I would agree and say that the UK and France will recognize it ASAP mainly due to the fact that it's not going to have slavery in it. As for it remaining neutral in the ACW, that's not going to fly very long. Lincoln is going to try to bring them back in ASAP, but this will prove to be quite difficult, due not only to European intervention, but the distances involved. He needs to do this of course to get access to California Gold and Nevada Silver to bankroll the US war effort.

How the Mormons would react to such developments is anyone's guess...perhaps they declare independence as well with some UK/French nudging?

England and France already wanted to be involved, but with Lincoln painting it as a war against slavery and several smaller factors it wasn't worth the image of being labeled hypocrites on a world scale, as both countries were anti-slavery supporters

Problem is, Lincoln doesn't make it a war against slavery and won't earlier than OTL in order to keep the border states in the Union. Likely though you'll get a UK mediated peace dividing the Western US between American and Californian zones. Due to a worse economy, the US is all but exhausted after vanquishing the Confederacy resulting in their begrudging acceptance.
 
I would agree and say that the UK and France will recognize it ASAP mainly due to the fact that it's not going to have slavery in it. As for it remaining neutral in the ACW, that's not going to fly very long. Lincoln is going to try to bring them back in ASAP, but this will prove to be quite difficult, due not only to European intervention, but the distances involved. He needs to do this of course to get access to California Gold and Nevada Silver to bankroll the US war effort.

How the Mormons would react to such developments is anyone's guess...perhaps they declare independence as well with some UK/French nudging?



Problem is, Lincoln doesn't make it a war against slavery and won't earlier than OTL in order to keep the border states in the Union. Likely though you'll get a UK mediated peace dividing the Western US between American and Californian zones. Due to a worse economy, the US is all but exhausted after vanquishing the Confederacy resulting in their begrudging acceptance.

I'm likely butterflying away a Lincoln presidency in the first place. The POD is a Pyrrhic victory for Britain in the French and Indian War side of the Seven Years War.
 
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